Life of a Sportsaholic

This blog is intended to be insight into my life as an irrational, stats-driven, obsessive sports fan in Boston. I am a fan of all types of sports with an emphasis on Boston teams and am a proud UConn alum.

Tag: texas rangers

How Rare is a 20+ Run Output in Baseball?

AP Photo/Nick Wass

After the Washington Nationals beat the New York Mets 23-5 on Sunday, my brain kicked into full stats nerd high gear. The game seemed to be approaching or breaking a handful of records including an individual achievement: Anthony Rendon going 6-6 with 3 HRs and 10 RBIs. As a fan of baseball and someone who watches an unhealthy amount, I know a team scoring 20+ points is rare, but how rare is it? Thanks to baseball-reference.com, I dug into the numbers a bit more and was surprised to see the results.

Since 1913, a team has scored more than 20 runs in a regular season game 213 times. That may seem like a lot of times, it did to me initially, but context is critically important. In a given year, there are 4,860 chances for an MLB team to score more than 20 runs. If you back that out a bit, since the MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998, that’s 92,340 opportunities for a team to score 20+ runs (not including 2017). Just for fun, I went back to 1913, factoring in all MLB expansions and the changes in number of games per year and figured out there were approximately 350,000 opportunities for a team to score 20+ runs, making the odds to accomplish such a feat just 0.061%. The rarity of the feat is fascinating, but gets even better.

In a pitcher-dominated era of baseball, we are seeing 20+ run games happen even less frequently than before. There have been just 10 instances since the start of the 2012 season, which works out to a 0.041% chance of seeing it happen over the last 5 years. Even more rare is the 23+ run output like we saw yesterday. Since 1913, there have been 47 such occurrences, which boils out to a 0.013% chance of it happening on a given day. Since 2007, we have seen only 2 instances of a 23+ run output, yesterday’s Nationals score and a 30-run effort by the Texas Rangers in 2007 (most ever). The results over that span shrink the odds of it happening to a minuscule 0.0041% chance. If you have tickets to an MLB game next week and are hoping for 20+ runs, I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

For those who couldn’t follow the numbers, know this: What happened in yesterday’s Nationals game is exceedingly rare and is growing even more rare over time. Will we see another 20+ outing this season? The odds are against it, but you never know with baseball.

Is Epic Comeback a Turning Point?

When David Price got pulled after 2.1 innings and 6 runs in Texas last night, it felt like another lost night. The Red Sox got 2 runs back on a Hanley Ramirez HR, then Matt Barnes abruptly gave up a HR to make the score 7-2 after 4 innings. With a thin bullpen and a struggling offense, I didn’t think there was any chance of a W. Then the 9th inning happened.

Down 7-4 in the 9th, Jackie Bradley Jr. walked to kick off the inning before Bryce Brentz struckout and Travis Shaw popped-out. Then the Red Sox spark plug, Sandy Leon, stepped in and ripped an RBI double to get the rally started. Mookie Betts promptly crushed a 2-run HR to tie the game.  A Dustin Pedroia walk, Xander Bogaerts single and a wild pitch gave the Red Sox a lead to stay. Koji Uehara shut the door in the bottom of the 9th and the Red Sox walked away with a marquee win.

Last night’s win was desperately needed. It felt like the season was beginning to get away from the Red Sox after losing 12 of the last 21 games and slipping to 2nd place in the AL East. The offense was struggling to score more than 2 runs and the pitching staff looked vulnerable. All problems are certainly not resolved after 1 win, but watching the team pick up a terrible start from their ace by coming back to win against a very good Rangers team is inspiring.

It feels like last night could be the boost the team needs to begin playing better and winning some games. Unlike earlier in the season where it felt as though they could come back from any deficit with their potent offense, lately their team confidence level had dipped. A win like this can only help to improve that confidence moving forward.

Bryce Brentz Gets His Shot

Photo by Louriann Mardo-Zayat

Photo by Louriann Mardo-Zayat

When Chris Young grabbed for his leg when rounding 1st base on Thursday, everyone’s heart sank. It is the quintessential sign of a pulled hamstring and leaves the Red Sox very thin on big-league ready outfielders. Young went on the DL immediately following the game and the Red Sox called-up Pawtucket Red Sox outfielder Bryce Brentz to take his place.

Brentz has seen some limited time in the majors, appearing in 9 games in 2014. This year, he began the season with the AA Portland Sea Dogs and then moved up to Pawtucket. He has a .278 average with 3 HRs and 17 RBI in 38 games with the Paw Sox, including 14 doubles. He has struck out 33 times and certainly hasn’t looked amazing, but he now has a chance to prove himself at the major league level.

Brentz is starting in left for the Red Sox on Friday night in Texas against RHP Nick Martinez and will likely have many opportunities to play over the next few weeks depending on the recovery of Brock Holt and Blake Swihart. For his sake, and the Red Sox organization’s sake, I hope he has a nice stint on the major league roster.