After a disappointing and flat trade deadline that did not address the most glaring needs on the roster, the Red Sox opened a 3-game set with the 2nd place Tampa Bay Rays just 0.5 games ahead in the AL East. After being swept in, at times, embarrassing fashion, and on a 4-game losing streak, it’s officially time to panic. The 1.5 game deficit in the division is obviously not insurmountable, but with the improved New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays poised to make a run at 2nd and a wild card berth (now just 5.5 and 6.5 games behind the Red Sox respectively), it’s going to get worse before it’s over.
The major issue for this team is the pitching staff. Before a great outing from P Nick Pivetta on Sunday to kick-off August, the staff struggled. In July, the staff had a 4.56 ERA, allowed 29 HRs, and walked 76 batters in 25 games. That translates to 1.16 HRs and 3.04 BBs per game during the month. Your current “ace” P Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t gone past 6 innings since April and hasn’t even recorded an out in the 6th inning in 10 of his last 15 starts. His past two starts are a combined 4.1 innings with 7 earned runs and his ERA for the season is now 5.60 including a concerning 1 inning outing where he left with a migraine. E-Rod just can’t seem to reach his potential for any extended period of time.
The rest of the rotation has been up and down as well. The down is definitely P Garrett Richards who just doesn’t look like he belongs in a major league rotation at this point. I’m sure the Red Sox are waiting for Sale to return to boot him, but it’s getting hard to watch when his turn is up. In his last 10 starts, his ERA has steadily grown every single game from 3.75 to 5.15. He’s a guaranteed 4 runs allowed per game in 4-5 innings. The up has been P Nathan Eovaldi when he’s on, but just like everyone else, has had several bad games in the last month or two, allowing 5 runs in 2 of his last 4 starts.
Chris Sale will be returning at some point, but even if he is 100% vintage Sale, which he will not be, he can only pitch every 5 days. When the other 4 days are up and down short outings and taxed bullpen arms, the losses will pile up, especially with 20 more games to play against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. If the Red Sox make the postseason, and that’s a big if, I have very little confidence in the pitching staff to hold off a heavy-hitting lineup.
If the pitching staff is just ok, then the offense for the Red Sox needs to step up and score a ton of runs. That leads me to the other glaring weakness of the team, first base. Red Sox first baseman this year are hitting a combined .217 with an OBP of .261 and just 14 HRs in 107 games. The leader of the pack is 1B Bobby Dalbec with a WAR of -1.1 and a staggering .214 average. Everyone knew coming up that he had a tendency to strikeout, but that could be offset by his power and decent average. In 86 games (299 PAs), he is hitting .214 with 11 HRs and 113 Ks. If the Red Sox had any other option, he would be in AAA right now. The addition of OF Kyle Schwarber could help if he can convert to first base, but he’s still a week or two away from being able to play with his hamstring issue and then needs to take some time to get comfortable there. By that point, the Red Sox could be 5-6 games out and hanging on by a thread to 3rd or even 4th place in the division.
The larger offensive concern right now is the overall team production. Everyone thought OF Jarren Duran would be the spark to light the team on fire, but he’s struggling big time with a .150 average and just 1 HR and 17 Ks in 14 games (43 PAs). He’s more of a liability than an asset and may just find himself out of the playoff picture (if the Sox get there) replaced by Schwarber, or anyone else, in the outfield. The heavy-hitters in the lineup are also struggling, with DH/OF J.D. Martinez looking a bit lost at the plate hitting .146 in his last 12 games and SS Xander Bogaerts hitting .225 in his last 22 games. This team needs a lot of offensive production to compensate for shaky pitching at times and right now, they are getting neither.
There is obviously still time for things to turn around. The offense could begin to get going and return to their big-hitting form and the starting pitching could give this team just enough to win a bunch of games, but right now, things look pretty scary. It’s the worst this team has looked all season at the worst possible time to be struggling with everyone around them turning it on for the stretch run. On top of that, the AL West may grab one of the two wild card berths, making it a 4-way fight for two spots, instead of three in another year. I want to believe, but I just don’t have a good feeling about how this will end.