Big East

Game Preview: #5 UConn vs #12 New Mexico State

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Quick Details

Gametime: 6:50pm Thursday, March 17th on TNT

Arena: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

Previous matchups: N/A

Odds (as of 3/14): UConn -6.5, o/u 131.5 (according to Yahoo)

New Mexico State Overview

New Mexico State was the automatic qualifier out of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) this season after winning the tournament championship in fairly convincing fashion. They finished the year at 26-6 (13-4 in conference) and averaged 74.2 points per game this season. The team’s leader is G Teddy Allen who finished the season as the leading scorer in the WAC (19.3 points/game) and the 5th leading rebounder in the WAC (6.8 per game). The former West Virginia Cavalier and Nebraska Cornhusker, Allen transferred to the Aggies after last season and has seen improvement in almost every statistical category. Now as a Junior, the 6’6″ guard has experience playing Big 10 and Big 12, so he won’t be intimidated by a bigger and more powerful matchup in the tournament. On the defensive side, the Aggies were one of the best at limiting opponents scoring in the WAC. They finished 2nd in the conference holding opponents to a 39.1% field goal percentage and 1st in points per game against (61.2). In all games, they allowed 65.0 points per game.

Matchup

Overall, these two teams are fairly close in a number of statistical categories, which is interesting. Both have committed a similar number of turnovers on the season (375 – NM St, 380 – UConn), both allow a similar number of points per game (65.0 – NM St., 65.2 – UConn), both are in the mid-to-bottom of the NCAA in total fouls committed (508 – NM St, 538 – UConn), and both teams run a slower-paced tempo overall (223rd – NM St, 291 – UConn). The huge difference for me is in their strength of schedule, naturally. UConn has played the 27th hardest schedule in all of the NCAA, while the Aggies schedule is 131st. Additionally, UConn has a KenPom of 18th, while New Mexico State is 81st and KenPom ranks New Mexico State as the 17th luckiest team in the country whereas UConn is 248th luckiest (out of 358)*.

New Mexico State has some size up front in Will McNair Jr. and Yuak Alok who are 6’10” and 6’11” respectively. (Sidenote: I desperately hope we see Akok vs Alok) It will be interesting to see if they can limit Adama Sanogo inside or if Sanogo’s brute strength gets the New Mexico State frontcourt in early foul trouble. If they are able to limit Sanogo inside, then there will be more pressure on Tyrese Martin and R.J. Cole to provide some offense and Tyler Polley and Isaiah Whaley to draw the taller players further from the rim on defense. Defensively, if UConn can slow down Teddy Allen like they have in the past with their opponent’s best guard (i.e. Collin Gillespie in the Big East Tournament), then New Mexico State will have a hard time putting up points, playing right into the Huskies hands.

Prediction – UConn 69-62

Given the style of play and focus, I’m guessing this could be more of a grind-out game than a high-scoring affair, something UConn is all too familiar with. I think UConn does a nice job slowing down Allen and gets Sanogo involved in the play, but the big man doesn’t dominate inside against the size and length of the Aggie’s. I do think Sanogo’s ability to score down low will draw a number of fouls early against the New Mexico State frontcourt and allow UConn to build a small first half lead. The Aggies inability to hit FTs (under 70% as a team) will hurt them in late-game situations and the easy ride for UConn fans to head to Buffalo should give them the edge in crowd noise. I’m taking UConn in a hard-fought, close 69-62 victory.

*The luck measurement is the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from it’s game-by-game efficiencies. A team involved in a lot of close games should lose all of them. Those that win those games are considered luckier.

The Creighton Curse Bites UConn Again

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

UConn came into Wednesday night’s matchup with Creighton on the road looking for revenge and a lock of the #3 seed in the Big East Tournament. After Creighton beat UConn in Hartford earlier this season 59-55, this date was circled on the calendar for payback. Unfortunately, UConn left with a giant L, a drop in Big East Tournament seeding, and several concerning injuries. Now sitting at 0-5 all-time against the Bluejays, there seems to be a mental block for the Huskies when they see the Creighton uniforms. They came out ice-cold on Wednesday night and for the 2nd time this season, trailed by 10pts at half against this team. After a valient comeback, the Huskies squandered several opportunities to take the lead and ultimately couldn’t get over the hump. The implications of the loss are fairly significant and could change the Huskies chances in the Big East Tournament with 1 regular season game to play.

Creighton coach Greg McDermott has a way of motivating his team when they play the Huskies. They seem to play harder and more aggressively, putting pressure on UConn from start to finish. When UConn gets back into a game, Creighton finds a way to do just enough to prevent the train from coming off the rails and ultimately is able to pull out a counterpunch. In Wednesday night’s matchup it felt like the game was tied at 50 for an hour after UConn was down 16 and came back. The Huskies ramped up their defense and got stops but couldn’t get a shot to drop if their lives depended on it. Not being able to get past the hump and take a lead, Creighton was able to grab hold of the game and pull out the close victory.

Overall, a 40.9% (27/66) FG percentage and a 27.3% (6/22) 3pt percentage is just not good enough. Add to that just 5 FT attempts all game and just 2 made FTs, UConn had opportunities that they just plain missed. For long stretches in this game the Huskies looked like the team from the middle of the season that was struggling to find its identity and losing close games on the regular. One of the biggest shifts for them that led to the 5-gane win streak was their ability to limit the damage and shift momentum after an opponent run. Tonight, it felt like the first 16 min of the game were one prolonged ice-cold streak followed by a short run and then an inability to get the big shot when the game was tied that seemed to demoralize UConn and energize the Bluejays. Overall, Adama Sanogo was guarded very well by Creighton and with the shots not falling, other players weren’t able to capitalize when Sanogo was doubled or tripled inside.

There were several scary injury moments in the game. In the first half, Sanogo left with a dislocated finger, Tyrese Martin left with what appeared to be a hand or wrist injury, and Jordan Hawkins left with a suspected concussion. Thankfully Sanogo and Martin returned to play, but Hawkins did not. All three are critical players for this Huskies team and there would be a huge hole without them going forward. Without Hawkins for much of the game, the bench got short very quick and in a high-intensity contest, it seemed that UConn was fatigued down the stretch. They were also missing Hawkins offensive ability and his threat to hit a three or drive for 2. It really became a 7-man rotation, which is tough in a tight, bruising Big East matchup.

With the loss, UConn falls to 4th in the Big East, which makes their path to the Big East Tournament title tougher. As a #3 seed, they would face either Georgetown or Seton Hall in the semifinals, but as the #4, they would likely face #5 Marquette in the semifinals, which is a tougher matchup. Then, if they were to win the semis, they would likely face the #1 Providence as a #4, rather than #2 Villanova if they were a #3 on their path to the title game (assuming no upsets). The loss also hurts UConn in their NCAA seeding and may drop them back to the 5 line without a deep conference tournament run. A #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament is much more favorable than a #5, obviously. None of that matters if UConn can play well, get some MSG magic and make a deep run, because a deep Big East Tournament run could push them up to the 4 or even possibly the 3 line for the NCAA Tournament.

Overall, the Creighton curse struck again on Wednesday night and added an L to the Huskies record. Not ideal for a team trying to play their best basketball down the stretch.

Massive W for the UConn Huskies

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

After some inconsistent play throughout much of the regular season, the UConn Huskies Men’s Basketball program has risen to the challenge down the stretch. UConn faced their toughest challenge of the season on Tuesday night when they matched up with #8 Villanova at the XL Center. From the opening tip to the final whistle, it was one of the most exciting games of the season for the Huskies in front of more than 15,000 fans in Hartford (one of the best UConn crowds in recent memory). UConn played one of their most consistent games all season with high energy and grit for the entire 40-minute game, with contributions up and down the rotation. With under a minute left, UConn was able to overcome a 4pt deficit thanks to Tyler Polley‘s sharp-shooting, very strong defense, and a massive game-winner from the heart and soul of the team, R.J. Cole. When the buzzer sounded, the students stormed the court and a message was sent out to the college basketball world: UConn is back and coming for you.

This has been a rollercoaster season for the Huskies, filled with what ifs and stretches of forgotten identity. Tuesday night was their 20th victory of the year and arguably their most complete game played in several weeks, if not all season. Being back in the Big East means a tough game almost every single night in conference play and as a result, a number of close losses in which UConn was one or two plays away from securing the W. Earlier in the season, this would have been a close loss filled with questions. Since their several week COVID pause in December and into January, UConn is 11-3 with their losses coming to Creighton (by 4), Villanova (by 11), and Xavier (by 6). They have gone on a revenge tour the last week, beating Xavier and Villanova in their 2nd matchup and if they can beat Creighton on March 2nd, will have avenged their losses. If the season ended today, they would be a #3 seed in the Big East Tournament, which gives them a really strong chance to improve their resume for the NCAA Tournament (currently a 4th or 5th seed).

Throughout the season, UConn has shown signs of being a top team, but hasn’t put it all together until recently. They started the season off strong with a great showing in the Battle for Atlantis with a huge victory over now #3 Auburn in OT (their only loss for most of the season), followed by a 4pt loss to Michigan State (shorthanded with Whaley out) and then a nice rebound victory against VCU. Despite cold streaks, awful layup percentages, and foul trouble (looking at you Adama Sanogo), UConn has been able to lean on it’s defensive intensity and offensive rebounding to keep them in games when the offense disappeared. We’re seeing a more complete UConn team this past week because they have continued their defensive identity while also limiting their cold streaks offensively. As they get more confident individually and as a group, more layups are falling and their offensive game has improved.

A great example of the improved offensive game was Tuesday night. More specifically, there was a turning point in the game after Dan Hurley was ejected for a ridiculous 2nd technical (an entirely separate rant). The technical free throws and possession led to a 6pt swing for the Wildcats with hardly any time coming off the clock at a pivotal time in the game with 4ish minutes left in the first half. At a different point in the season, that deficit could have led to forced shots and digging a deeper hole on the offensive end, but instead, it led to a nice offensive run with smart shots and increased defensive intensity to pull back tied. The confidence the team has in each other was obvious and it led to an incredibly strong performance against a top tier team with tons of experience. The signature win will only help to continue building the team’s confidence down the stretch.

Another shift that was interesting to watch and gives this team a new dimension going into the postseason was Andre Jackson as the baller handler. He athleticism and speed helped UConn get out in transition and for the most part, he was able to take care of the ball without his tendency for silly turnovers. The new twist of Jackson running point more often puts Tyrese Martin and R.J. Cole in better spots to get their shots and definitely gives the offense an energy boost. It also gives the opponent different looks and allows Cole to have more energy down the stretch for the big bucket at the end. Jackson has always been praised for his athleticism and speed, but now it feels like he’s more comfortable using that to exploit the opponent. He is a strong passer and the more he has the ball in his hands to facilitate, the more engaged he is on the offensive end. He can’t run point every possession, but as a change of pace, it’s great.

Overall, UConn is peaking at the right time and is back to being relevant again. If their strong play continues over the next few weeks, they have a real chance to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament in a year where the field is pretty wide open. If they can improve their seeding and grab a #4, maybe even a #3 seed, they will have a good chance at making a 2nd weekend appearance and perhaps even beyond. Tough and gritty defense with a strong big man inside and a veteran point guard who isn’t afraid to take the big shot at the end. Sound familiar?

Are the UConn Men a Legit Contender?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

It’s been an interesting season for UConn men’s basketball. There were fairly high hopes coming into the season despite losing star James Bouknight to the NBA draft, because the roster was mostly returning with some young talent added in. At times, the team has lived up to the hype and have looked like a dangerous March team and then for stretches they have looked flat and ineffective. Add in a 3-week COVID pause in December and early January and a plethora of injuries, it’s challenging to figure out who the Huskies really are and what their ceiling is 20 games into the season.

After a tough loss to Creighton at home on Tuesday the coach Dan Hurley called “brutal”, the Huskies are 15-5 and ranked #17 in the country (for now). They are 6-3 in their triumphant return to the Big East and have a huge game against #12 Villanova on Friday. They have big wins against now #1 Auburn (the Tigers only loss) and now #24 Marquette and tough losses against West Virginia and Seton Hall (in OT). At times, they have looked offensively savvy and have been able to score in bunches and then they have had ridiculous ice-cold stretches offensively (i.e. the first half plus of the Creighton game). Defensively, the Huskies seem to have a hard-nosed, grinding approach that makes them tough to play against, but if they can’t score, does it matter?

One thing for certain is that Adama Sanogo has elevated his game this season and has had a big impact. When Sanogo is healthy and playing, UConn is 13-3 with the 3 losses to a tough Michigan State team, Seton Hall in OT, and the most recent Creighton loss. It seems the offense runs as Sanogo does, but despite making a big step forward this year, he’s still been somewhat inconsistent and when he struggles, it can impact the offense significantly. For example, against Creighton he went just 3-10 from the field and ended with 8pts and 9 rebounds and UConn failed to score 60 as a team. When Sanogo takes over inside, the other scoring options open up for the Huskies and they become significantly more balanced and powerful.

The injury bug has definitely impacted the team as well. Just 2 players, RJ Cole and Andre Jackson have started all 20 games and that has led to a lack of cohesive play at times, especially on the offensive end. The team tends to get a bit stagnant and too often are driving late in the shot clock to get off an off-balance layup or pull-up attempt. The ball tends to stick a bit, leading to low percentage shots and bad possessions. If the team can stay as healthy as they are now and not have any other season pauses like the long one in December and January, my hope is the chemistry will grow and the offense will become more fluid like we have seen in flashes during the year. If not, this team won’t make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

The bright spot for the Huskies right now is their defense. They rank at or near the top of the NCAA in many defensive categories and have allowed less than 65 points in 14 of their 20 games on the season including 3 of their last 4 (the only exception being the Georgetown blowout on January 25th). If they are to make a deep run into March, the defense will have to be the star of the show as with past deep runs. The cliche is “defense wins championships” and I think that can be true if the offense is potent enough to keep pace (which is my biggest concern). If you can’t get 60 pts of offense, the best defense probably won’t matter and an early exit is almost guaranteed.

The next 10 games will be the most telling for this year’s team. During that stretch, UConn plays 5 games against currently top-25 ranked teams and will have chances to measure themselves against other tournament-level competition. If they struggle, March will be a challenge and a deep run will be unlikely, but if they can show their strength and win most of those games, it will give the Huskies momentum into the Big East and NCAA tournaments. Now is the time for UConn to put it all together and live up to their high potential.