bill belichick

The Mac Jones Era Begins in New England

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

There are usually some surprises on cut-down day when every NFL team needs to trim their rosters significantly down to a 53-man roster. Rarely are the significant surprises coming out of the New England Patriots camp, but today was a clear exception. After an entire preseason with QB Cam Newton being positioned as the starter and starting all 3 preseason games, Bill threw us all a curveball. Around 10am this morning the news came down that Cam Newton had been released by the New England Patriots, clearly paving the way for the Mac Jones era to begin. There is no better way for Bill Belichick to make a statement about his confidence in Mac Jones as QB1 than to cut his competition.

Its incredibly uncommon for Bill to trust a rookie at a major position, especially QB. On top of the fact that QB is one of the most pivotal positions on the field, it was also a shortened preseason this year with one less game to evaluate players. All the reports out of Patriots camp were that teammates liked Mac and were impressed by him on and off the field, but there is always a lot of fluff talk before the season starts and it’s hard to know what to really believe. As it turns out, Bill really did feel that way and was clearly impressed by the young QB in order to hand the reigns to him before his first NFL game.

As I’ve mentioned several times before, and as recently as yesterday, Mac Jones should be QB1. What no one expected was Bill making that decision. The most common word used this morning amongst those in the know in Foxboro was “shocked”. While some felt Bill would bench Cam and start Mac to start the season, most still believed, me included, that Bill would begin the season with Cam and depending on results move on to Mac later in the season. I don’t think there was a single person who could have predicted Cam Newton would be released this morning and not even make the 53-man roster.

Now that the shock is beginning to wear off, it’s time to focus our attention on the rookie QB and his debut September 12th. This is his team now and he should feel empowered to be smart and play his game. He doesn’t have to look over his shoulder and wonder if one mistake will see him on the bench. The coaching staff is not going to ask him to throw for 400 yards every week and score 6 TDs, but they need him to be a smart game manager, limit the mistakes, take advantage of opportunities for a big play, and play with confidence. The defense is weaker without CB Stephon Gilmore for the first 6 weeks, so they will likely need at least 3 scores each week to have a chance to win.

If he can complete short passes and move the chains through the air, it will open up the potent running game for the Pats and in turn, reduce the pressure on Mac. The offense is poised to be really solid as currently constituted without Mac throwing deep bombs and trying to force too many throws. If he continues his calm, cool confidence from the preseason, this could be a fun team to watch this season.

Mac Jones Should Be QB1

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

All of New England had curious eyes on this preseason. We were glued to practices and preseason games that don’t count more intently than any in recent memory. Everyone wanted to get a look at the potential QB of the future, Mac Jones. The hype was (is) significant with daily reports on practice reps and completion percentage and even detailed analysis on each incompletion and why it was, or was not, a good throw. For a fan base desperate for a QB who can return the franchise to championship caliber, this preseason was everything and Mac Jones delivered. He did everything he could, and should, to earn the QB1 roster spot.

I’m not shy with my criticism of QB Cam Newton and his clear flaws and issues. To me, he’s done nothing to earn the QB1 spot other than have some unexplainable loyalty from Bill Belichick. The talk all preseason was that it was Cam’s job to lose, and in my opinion, he lost the job. Mac Jones was clearly the better and more effective QB all preseason, and looked confident and effective with his decision making. On multiple occasions Mac drove the team down the field behind a backup offensive line and throwing to 4th, 5th, and 6th options at receiver and did so as if it were the first teamers. He made clear, quick, smart decisions, which was in dramatic contrast to Cam.

The thing that frustrates me the most about Cam and impressed me the most about Mac was the quick decision making. Last year, Cam ran the ball a lot. It was partially because his receiving core was weak and mostly because he took an eternity to make a decision on when and where to throw the ball. When you take a long time to make a decision, offensive lineman can’t hold their blocks and windows to hit receivers close. With Mac under center, the team looked quicker and more confident. Will that result in some mistakes and some quick throws in the ground? Absolutely, but it will also result in more 5-10 yard hits down the field and moving the chains more regularly.

My biggest argument for Mac as the starter week 1 is simple. Why not? If as an organization you believe he is the future and he’s shown you that he is more than capable to win games now, why hand the ball to Cam Newton who is on the back end of his career and has no long-term future in New England? What does it prove to have him sit on the bench behind Cam? To me it’s a no-brainer decision to hand him the reigns of the team and see what he is really capable of doing. It won’t be perfect and there will be mistakes, but do you really think he’ll make more mistakes than an aging Cam Newton?

Now is the time. Week 1 vs the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium should be Mac’s first career NFL start for the New England Patriots. Unfortunately, I think Bill Belichick has other ideas.

“Misunderstanding” Opens Door for Mac Jones

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

In one of the more bizarre stories of the preseason for the New England Patriots, QB Cam Newton is missing an entire week of practice due to a COVID protocol “misunderstanding”. Not just any week, but the final week of practice before the final preseason game. After a great performance on Thursday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, it appeared Cam was solidifying his role as the starter for the Pats, but Monday’s news puts all of that in jeopardy and opens the door for QB Mac Jones to take the spot from him.

At this point in the preseason, players should be clear on COVID protocols and be extra careful about following them to the T. Bill Belichick expects nothing less than perfection when it comes to the rules and now his loyalty to Cam will be tested. The Pats will be without the services of Cam in practice (other than virtual appearances) until Thursday, which is essentially the entire final week in an already shortened preseason. In the past, if a player doesn’t practice much in a week, especially with a rules violation, they don’t tend to play in the game. Will Bill actually sit Cam on Sunday against the New York Giants? If he does and Mac Jones puts on a show, would he actually make the decision to bench Cam for week 1?

If I had to put money on it today, I still think Cam is the week 1 starter, but what was a seemingly sure thing at the end of last week now feels like more of a toss-up. For the good things Cam can occasionally do, his self-destructive behavior is hard to look past and in New England, this stuff usually doesn’t fly. Players have been benched or cut for seemingly less despite great performances and talent (i.e. RB Jonas Gray).

This situation also makes it clear that Cam is one of the players on the roster who has not been vaccinated, because if he were, he would not have to follow the 5-day rule before returning to practice. Given the current COVID situation and the push for 100% vaccinations amongst players and coaches, it doesn’t reflect well on him or the Pats. Is this the QB you want leading your team?

It’s never boring off-the-field with Cam Newton, but on-the-field is often a different story…

Will Bill Belichick actually start Mac Jones early in 2021?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment
Photo from the New England Patriots

As Patriots training camp opens, there are a number of positional battles and storylines to watch, but the one that will likely receive the most attention is the QB position. For more than a decade it was the least contested position on the field in New England, but now that the Pats have spent high draft capital on their guy Mac Jones and re-signed Cam Newton, the path for 2021 is less clear. When will we see the young 1st round pick under center? Does Bill Belichick have it in him to start Mac Jones week 1 if he significantly outperforms Cam Newton in training camp?

It’s always hard to judge exactly how good players truly look in training camp. Each day there will be lots of reports talking about how player X is looking stronger and quicker and player Y has been lifting in the offseason. My favorite are when a reporter picks a seemingly random player and hypes him up on the off chance he has a breakout year, then the player doesn’t make the roster or get any reps. To be fair, it can be hard to predict some of the decisions that Belichick and his staff make, which is why we’re left wondering about the real plan for Mac Jones.

I think we’ll see pretty quickly, if we haven’t already, that Mac Jones has a stronger and more accurate arm than Cam. The bar is set fairly low with Cam’s arm strength looking pretty awful at times last season, but it’s worth noting. I know the receiving core didn’t do Cam any favors in 2020, but a 7.2 yds/pass average put him near the bottom of the league. However, Cam did have a higher completion rate than Tom Brady in 2020 (by 0.001%) albeit with 159 fewer completions on 242 fewer attempts. Another gap between the two QBs is around playbook and awareness.

When it comes to the Pats playbook, an extra season under your belt vs being new in town can be a cavernous divide, whether real or just in Belichick’s head. I’m not saying Cam had an amazing grasp of the offense and knew exactly what to do on every play last year, but his legs made up for the moments when he was lost and he studied and practiced each week. Mac Jones isn’t slow, but he certainly isn’t a running back either, and having just a few months to learn and digest the system is tough. Until Belichick feels Mac has a really strong grasp on the playbook and a bit more awareness of situations on the field, he’s going to be very hesitant to start him, like we’ve seen with some other young QBs in the recent past (i.e. Jared Stidham).

Besides a grasp of the playbook, there is also the sense of loyalty that for some reason Belichick has with Cam. Bill seems to love Cam like a son and has been willing to give him a pretty long leash up until this point. I’m not sure if that’s partially a product of his distrust in Stidham or his true love for Cam. This year will certainly test that theory, because there is now a legitimate contender on the bench behind Cam who can probably step in and win some games even before he’s really “ready”. If Mac outduels Cam in training camp, it’ll push Belichick to make a tough decision (or at least it should).

Another factor in the decision revolves around the schedule. Overall, it’s not the hardest schedule the Pats have had, which is helpful, but there aren’t any stretches of several games playing bad teams to easy Mac in. It seems to be a tougher game followed by an easier game for the majority of the season making it difficult to see an obvious run of games to hand Mac the reigns if not on week 1.

My ideal scenario is that Mac crushes in training camp and Belichick has no choice but to hand him the ball week 1. If they believe he is the future, start the path now knowing that there will be bumps and bruises along the way. He’s not going to take this team deep in the playoffs for a year or two, but neither is Cam, at least Mac’s playing time would be building toward the future. Give him a decent leash knowing that the veteran Cam is there to guide him through and step if things really go off the rails. I think realistically, Belichick will wait to start Mac until 1. Cam is completely incompetent and he has no choice; 2. Cam gets injured; or 3. They are out of the playoff hunt post the week-14 bye.

Fool Me Twice Aaron Dobson, Shame on Me

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

AP Photo/Elise Amendola

The New England Patriots are already hard at work in training camp and a familiar refrain is once again beginning: “Aaron Dobson looks great”. We’ve been down this road before, one headline during last year’s training camp read “Aaron Dobson Standing Out Among Receivers In Patriots Training Camp” (NESN.com) and the Providence Journal wrote “Aaron Dobson has continued to stand out”. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Every year I look at the depth on the Patriots roster and think, “Which one of these guys in the middle of the pack will step up and have a big year?” For the last few years, the name Aaron Dobson has jumped out at me. He’s 6’3”, 205 lbs and is in his early-mid 20’s with tons of potential. I think, “If he stays healthy, this is his year to break out.”

Dobson has all the makings of a very good NFL caliber WR. His aforementioned size is an asset and he comes from a very solid Marshall football program – where he excelled. He was ranked in the top 20 at his position coming out of college and was considered a great choice for the Patriots at the end of the 2nd round. Mike Mayock wrote on NFL.com, “I like his size at 210 pounds. His production was good but not elite. I’ll tell you what he is: He’s raw, but he’s got upside. He put on a show at his pro day.” He sounds like a great Belichick pick. He has the skill, just need to get him some instruction and mold him into an NFL WR.

Considering the lack of WR depth for the Pats over the past several years, you would think Dobson would have more than enough chances to shine. In 2013, he played in 12 games and caught 37 passes for 519 yards. It seemed as though he was on his way to establishing himself as an important player for this team. Then in 2014 he was a healthy scratch for most of the early season before finally tearing his hamstring during week 13. He played in 4 games and caught 3 balls for 38 yards. Last season wasn’t much better: 13 receptions for 141 yards.

I’m done thinking Aaron Dobson will be a contributor to this team. Potential means nothing if you can’t live up to it.