Ezekiel elliott

Taking Stock of the Pats After 3 Weeks

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Now that we’re 3 weeks into the NFL season, it’s a good time to take a deeper dive into the 2023 New England Patriots and where they have surprised us, good and bad. The Pats leave week 3 with a 1-2 record and already sit 2 games back in the AFC East. On one hand, that’s definitely not the start most fans had hoped for and puts them behind the 8-ball when it comes to playoff hopes very early in the season but on the other hand, they had to face last year’s NFC Superbowl representative Philadelphia Eagles in week 1 and division rival Miami Dolphins in week 2, who look to be an early season Superbowl favorite with their high-powered offense. A loss is a loss but the Pats were one play away from winning both of those matchups which is a bit encouraging. Lets dig a little deeper.

I’ll start with the defense because it’s a much less painful review. Overall, the Pats D has held opponents to the 7th lowest completion percentage, which given 2 of the 3 QBs they have faced is very solid. They’ve allowed a bit more on the ground, the 12th fewest rush yards allowed, but overall holding the Eagles to 25 pts, the Dolphins to their season low of 24 pts, and the Jets to 10 pts should have been enough to win potentially all 3 contests. Matthew Judon looked good in the first 2 games but came alive against the Jets tallying 2 sacks, 4 tackles and a safety. Despite being incredibly thin thanks to injuries in the secondary, the Pats have held their own thanks in large part to Christian Gonzalez. The rookie has come into the league and has impressed a lot of people with his ability to cover top guys and already has an impressive INT to his name. He was forced to play the Jets #1 weapon in Garrett Wilson in week 3 and absolutely shut him down. Not many rookies could compete at this level this quickly. If they can get at least 2 of the Jones’ back soon, the secondary should be able to matchup decently well with most other teams.

Where to begin on the offensive side of the ball. The o-line has been mediocre at best and that may be too kind. Despite their individual size, the offensive line is thinner than a piece of paper. Injuries and lack of depth have led to a dumpster fire at times trying to protect Mac Jones and block for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. The Pats have two great weapons in the run game and it feels like most runs get shut down after a yard or two thanks to a missed or poor block from the line. If Mac doesn’t have time to throw, it makes it pretty damn hard to move the down the field. I’m sure Andrew Van Genkel is going to be a really solid NFL player, but the Pats made him look like the next coming of Julius Peppers with how easily he was able to get past the pathetic offensive line in week 2. Case in point, on both late 4th quarter drives for the Pats within 1-score against the Eagles and Dolphins, a Mac sack thanks to a blown line block put the offense behind the chains and made it significantly harder for him to put a sustained drive together. Fortunately, they got Trent Brown back in week 3 and will hopefully continue to get healthier as the season wears on but I’m just not sure a fully healthy group is good enough.

The most confusing part of this offense is the receiving core. Juju Smith-Schuster looks like he shouldn’t be on the field with what appears to be a knee issue. Every route he needs to run that requires a cut is absolutely awful and leads to too many seemingly errant throws from Mac. When rewatching Juju’s targets, in almost every case Mac is putting the ball where a healthy receiver who can make the cuts should be, especially a healthy Juju. The fact they even look his way at this point is baffling. Demario Douglas looks like a guy with potential, but an early season fumble and a few shaker moments seem to have put him in the doghouse. Kendrick Bourne and Devante Parker each have moments but can’t seem to consistently get open and be reliable targets. The tight ends are the key to this offense in my opinion, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki being solid pass catchers with potential to gain a few yards after catch and the odd emergence of Pharoah Brown against the Jets with a few big time catches and one really nice TD run. As long as the receiving core looks like it does now, there should be 15-20 plays for 5-15 yards to the tight ends as much as possible. Put two or even three on the field and make opponents guard all of them with smaller corners or slower linebacker.

My biggest issues with this team in general after 3 weeks are penalties and turnovers. The Pats are -2 in turnover differential on the season which is a recipe for close losses. Not surprisingly, the Pats had a negative turnover differential in their 2 losses and a 0 turnover differential in their only win. When losing the differential, NFL teams only win around 30% of the time. Additionally, the Pats have been committing lots of dumb mental-mistake penalties. Thus far this season, the Pats are averaging 6 penalties a game accounting for 46 yards lost. While it’s not horrible, when you’re playing in close 1-score games every week, discipline can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Overall, I don’t think anyone is happy with 1-2 thus far, but not everything is doom and gloom. More discipline and some much needed health at certain positions could put the Pats back where many expected them to be, a .500 to slightly better team with borderline playoff aspirations. In the AFC East, it’s going to be a grind all season and dropping close games won’t make life any easier when we start seriously talking playoffs. What is the Pats reward for getting through week 3? A date with the 2-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas coming off a bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It’s not going to be easy for the Pats to get back to .500 next week.

Not All is Lost in 2-4 Start for the Patriots

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

On late Sunday afternoon the Dallas Cowboys came to town and the matchup was filled with big plays, interesting and quick momentun turns, and extra football. The Cowboys came into Foxborough at 4-1 with a high-powered offense that was averaging 34 pts per game and 40.3 in their past 3 contests, tied for the best in the NFL. The Pats defense had their hands full and they needed a lot from Mac Jones and the offense and they got a solid performance from the rookie. Ultimately, after overtime the Cowboys are flying home happy and the Patriots are sitting 2-games below .500, but it shouldn’t be all doom and gloom in New England.

One of my takeaways from Sunday was the Patriots run-defense and their ability to limit running backs Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. In his last 3 games, Zeke was averaging 116 yards per game on just over 19 carries per game. On Sunday, the Pats held Zeke to 69 yards on 17 carries, just 4.1 yards per carry which is nearly 2 yards per carry below his average the last 3 games. The more limited run game forced a much larger pass game which was absolutely electric, but it’s nice to see the big front line for the Patriots limiting the run game.

The other main takeaway: Dak Prescott is at the top of his game and the Pats secondary is, well, not. Dak was able to put the ball in tight windows and make some huge throws on big 3rd and 4th downs to keep the Cowboys driving. He was able to read the defense and make the right decisions throughout the game, especially in crunch time in the 4th quarter and overtime. He finished the game with an incredible 445 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT, the most passing yards against a Bill Belichick coached team. It was his 2nd 400+ yard passing game this season and his 5th game with a passer rating above 101. In 6 games, he now has over 1,800 passing yards, 16 TDs and 4 INTs. His 74% completion percentage coming into the game was 2nd best in the NFL amongst regular starters and that will stay high after this 70.5% performance against the Patriots.

While Dak was impressive, it does raise a glaring flag in the Pats secondary which is now officially without Stephen Gilmore going forward after his trade to the Carolina Panthers. Jalen Mills was beat repeatedly throughout the game, including badly on the game-winning TD to CeeDee Lamb, who had 149 yards on 9 catches on the day. The secondary is coming off a terrible performance against rookie David Mills and the Houston Texans where they allowed 312 yards, 3 TDs and couldn’t grab an interception and they didn’t look much better against the elite QB. Beyond Mills, JC Jackson didn’t have his best game and committed a really costly pass interference penalty in the end zone that led to a Dallas TD in the 2nd half. It was a rough day all around.

On top of that, the Pats offensive line has more holes than swiss cheese. Between injuries and COVID-list stints, they were more intact than last week, but still thin. They got T Isaiah Wynn back this week, but he allowed a few really bad pressures/sacks and was benched at one point and moved around on the line. They did an OK job in the run game, but were incompetent at times in pass protection allowing a few awful hits on Mac Jones, which is not how you want to take care of the face of your franchise. Jones blamed himself for not getting the ball out quickly on those plays, but he can’t be expected to have 1 second of protection on every pass play. In spite of the line, Mac had a solid game.

The good news for the Pats is that they get the 1-4 New York Jets coming off a bye week at home next week, before taking a tough trip out west to play the Chargers on the road. Following the Chargers, they have a string of winnable games against the Panthers, Browns, Falcons, and Titans. They have a real chance to finish that 6-game stretch 4-2, which would return them to .500 heading into 2 games against the powerful division leading Buffalo Bills in 3 weeks.

For now, it’s time to get back to work and improve before next Sunday. I’m not sure how the Pats fix the secondary and offensive line, but if they can tweak and improve a little each week, then the team can get back to winning on the regular. It’s not great right now, but there is a long way to go in this season.