jd martinez

Taking Out the 2022 Garbage – Red Sox Edition

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The best thing I can say about the 2022 Boston Red Sox season is that it’s over. This season has been a failure-to-launch, swervy dumpster-fire that was chock-full of underperformances and roster shortcomings. The worst part about the season? It was good enough to keep you thinking they had a chance to turn things around until late August/early September when in reality it was over before it started. In the end, the Sox were only 8 games out of a Wild Card spot and finished with 78-wins, 5th in AL East. On it’s surface, 78 wins puts them middle of the pack in the MLB in 2022, but with a $220+ million payroll, that’s the worst spot to be. It’s baseball’s version of purgatory: not bad enough to get a high draft pick while also being too low to make the postseason. Oh and just to add insult to injury, the Red Sox are once again above the luxury tax threshold in a lost season.

What I will remember most about this season is inconsistency, fundamental errors, injuries, and aggressive under-performances. The entire season was clouded from day one by a lack of an extension for Xander Bogaerts and no long-term deal in place for Rafael Devers. All of the headlines around opening day included the failures of ownership and management to get the deals done and led to a negative team vibe to begin the season. I don’t care how well you compartmentalize, the failed negotiations involving one (or two) of the most beloved members and leaders of the team is going to impact the play on the field. It’s even worse when every single press conference brings up the failed negotiations and the media ran stories constantly about the situation with Bogaerts and Devers.

Now that we can officially close the door on the past 6 months, it’s a good time to reflect on the year that wasn’t and look ahead a bit. Here are my 5 takeaways from 2022 with an eye towards 2023. Now we enter arguably the most important offseason for the Red Sox in a long time.

1. The Hottest Seat in Baseball

When Chaim Bloom took over the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer role, he said his goal is to “build as strong an organization as possible in all aspects so we can have sustained long-term success and so we can compete in championships year in and year out.” His first mission was to build up the farm system after Dave Dombrowski lit it on fire in pursuit of a championship (not complaining about the 2018 World Series title) and it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t had a tremendous impact in that area. The Red Sox were at, or near, the bottom in farm system rankings when he took over and in just a few short years (including a COVID-shortened season), they are now just looking up at the top 10 in 11th place. The main problem with building the farm system to this point? Not focusing on the MLB team enough.

Despite the effort to build the farm system, Bloom has failed to make any significant impact at the MLB level. He’s made a few nice moves along the way, but coming into the 2022 season everyone could see the massive shortcomings of the pitching staff. Bloom decided to pick up scrap-heap guys with a hope for some success later in the season and didn’t do what one in charge of a $200+ million payroll should do: sign top-tier free agents. He brought Trevor Story in later in the offseason after his market thinned out, but didn’t go and get the free agents they needed and certainly wasn’t aggressive in building the roster at the MLB level. Even worse, Bloom couldn’t make up his mind at the trade deadline and instead of making some trades to reset the luxury tax threshold, he balked and put himself and ownership in a terrible spot with no postseason baseball to fall back on.

If Bloom doesn’t completely rebuild the pitching staff, add some offensive reinforcement with the likes of JD Martinez probably gone, and re-sign Bogaerts, he’s likely without a job in 2023. Boston is a town with unreasonably high expectations and right now it’s being run like Bloom’s previous employer, Tampa Bay. I’ve been a supporter of Bloom since he signed in 2019, but my patience is rapidly running out and I’m not the only one. Do you think ownership will stand for another year of this mess? I don’t think so.

2. Goodbyes Aplenty

If you watched any of the final series against Tampa Bay at Fenway, you saw one goodbye after another. The end of the 2022 season seemed to mark the potential end of a number of Red Sox greats, both on the field and in the booth. The great Dennis Eckersley stepped away from the broadcast booth after 50 years in the game of baseball as a Hall of Fame player and, for my money, Hall of Fame broadcaster. His honest, unfiltered commentary in a language all his own was an absolute joy to listen to each and every night. There were always stories and self-deprecating comments about his career as a player and when Jerry Remy was in the booth with him, it was must-see. He brought an energy and a passion every night, even in a difficult season to watch like 2022. He rubbed people the wrong way sometimes with his straight-shooting commentary but no one loves the game more than Eck. To me, the story Will Middlebrooks told on Name Redacted Pod sums up who Eck is as a person. Middlebrooks said that Eck didn’t want to be honored on the field for his pending retirement because the last time he was on the field was to catch Jerry Remy‘s first pitch in the 2021 Wild Card game. He wanted that to be the last time he was on the field.

The other goodbye that feels pretty solid was to J.D. Martinez. The 34-year old will become a free agent after 5 years in Boston and it’s unlikely the Red Sox make a run at resigning him. The 5-year, $110 million contract he signed in February of 2018 goes down as one of the best in Red Sox history. En route to a World Series title in 2018, JD had one of the best seasons ever in a Red Sox uniform when he hit .330 with 43 HRs and 130 RBIs along with 37 doubles in 150 regular season games and added 15 hits, 3 HRs, and 14 RBIs in the postseason. He followed 2018 with another impressive season hitting .304 with 36 HRs and 105 RBIs and 33 doubles. What’s not to like about that production at the plate? Without JD in 2018, it’s unlikely that the Red Sox raise another banner at Fenway Park and for that, I’ll be forever grateful. Despite his power struggles this past season, JD broke his 2021 career best doubles number with 43 and went out on top, hitting 2 HRs in the season finale.

The 3rd goodbye is one I hope doesn’t come to fruition: Xander Bogaerts. When Alex Cora pulled him in the 7th inning of game 162 to allow the fans to appreciate his accomplishments in possibly his last game in Boston, it was emotional. In 2009, as a 16-year old kid, Xander was drafted by the Boston Red Sox and hasn’t looked back since. He made his MLB debut in August 2013 and despite playing in only 18 regular season games, was on the postseason roster, hitting .296 with 2 RBIs in 12 postseason games. Since that point, Xander has grown into a steady leader who has gained the respect of all his teammates. He’s amassed 1,408 hits and 156 HRs with the Red Sox, while hitting at a .291 clip. The 4x All-Star, 2x World Series Champion, and 4x Silver Slugger Award winner is as beloved by the fans equally as much as his teammates. The seemingly meaningless grand slam he hit in the penultimate game of the 2022 season felt like a farewell nod to fans, despite most, myself included, still holding out hope he returns. If offered a fair contract now, I hope that Xander will re-sign and stay a Red Sox for life but with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll probably wait until free agency opens where massive numbers begin flying around. Lots of teams will be chomping at the bit to sign a leader on the field and in the clubhouse.

On top of the big three potential departures, it’s likely that this Red Sox team will look completely different in 2023. We expect to be saying goodbyes the entire offseason as players are traded or leave via free agency. It may be a long, cold winter.

3. Catching Duo of the Future

When the Red Sox sent Christian Vazquez across the hall to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, it became clear there was a changing of the guard at the catcher position in Boston. Bloom called up oft-talked about prospect Connor Wong and traded for Reese McGuire to fill the slots before DFA’ing fan favorite and the co-inventor of the laundry cart celebration, Kevin Plawecki. With an entirely new catching tandem, the Red Sox were already turning the page on 2022 and thinking about the future. Wong is a 26-year old catcher who after a successful collegiate career with the University of Houston, has been working his way up through the minors, first with the Dodgers and then coming to Boston in the Mookie Betts trade (alongside Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs). Wong has been stuck behind the catching duo of Vazquez and Plawecki and now has a chance to show the Red Sox what he’s worth. In 27 games down the stretch, he hit .188 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs for the Red Sox, not exactly lighting the world on fire even though it was a small sample size.

While Wong’s call-up wasn’t a surprise, addition of Reese McGuire was a bit surprising. McGuire played in 141 games in 4 seasons with Toronto and his .248 with 9 HRs, then 53 games with the Chicago White Sox and hit .225 with 0 HRs, so naturally you expected him to hit .337 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs in 36 games with the Red Sox, right? It was a bright spot for the Red Sox down the stretch and it appears he may have earned himself a regular spot in the catching rotation going forward. It was nice to watch him have success but to say I have concerns going forward is an understatement. Was the 36-game sample representative of what he can and will do going forward or is it more likely an aberration? If he drops back to his low-.200s average with little to no power and Wong doesn’t turn it around, that’s a big drop-off from having Vazquez behind the dish each night.

I like both Wong and McGuire but having two light-hitting catchers who are only decent defensively as your tandem isn’t ideal. There was a lot of talk about Vazquez coming back to Boston next year as a free agent after he was traded, but with 10 other more pressing positions to address, I’d be surprised if the Red Sox open the wallet for him. I’ll be keeping my eye on what the Red Sox do going forward and see if they dabble in the catching market this offseason.

4. Pitching Health, or Lack-Thereof

Entering the 2022 season the pitching staff had a ton of question marks and frankly, it’s only worse today. The season began with an injured Chris Sale and an injured addition of James Paxton, both expected at the time to be gone for more than half of the season and ended up missing the entire season (basically). The Red Sox also took a flyer on Michael Wacha who was trying to revive his career after a few rough statistical seasons and Rich Hill who was 41-years old and the tank was mostly empty. Wacha excelled in Boston and will hopefully stick around while Hill was a rollercoaster ride. The opening day rotation was shaky at best, with Nathan Eovaldi as the ace, Nick Pivetta as the #2, followed by Tanner Houck, Wacha, and Hill.

The bullpen was/is even thinner. The opening day bullpen included Phillips Valdez, Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles, Ryan Brasier, and Hirosaku Sawamura, all six were either DFA’d or sent to the minors during the season and as a group, were terrible at points. The other three members of the bullpen were Matt Barnes who was struggling majorly until the final month of the season, Garrett Whitlock who is a stud in the ‘pen but ended up in the rotation as a mediocre starter for a bit, and Kutter Crawford who spent time in the rotation and was solid during the season. Before injuries and unexpected circumstances the bullpen was already in trouble. They injuries piled on and the thin bench was lit on fire and burned to the ground. It was a poor display of roster construction in 2022 that has now led to an even bigger job rebuilding going into 2023.

The bright spots of discovering John Schreiber as a more than viable late-inning guy, the return of late-inning Matt Barnes very late in the season, and the rise of Brayan Bello in the rotation helps when thinking about 2023. If Houck recovers well from the back surgery, he could return to a high-leverage role and if they keep Whitlock in the bullpen (which seems unlikely), I feel better about the bullpen in 2023 even though there are a LOT of roles to fill. The rotation on the other hand, is still a massive problem. To plan for 2023, you have to act as if Chris Sale will give you nothing because odds are he won’t pitch a ton. Who else is in the rotation other than Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta? Rich Hill, Eovaldi and Wacha are free agents. Hill is probably going to retire or leave, Eovaldi will cost a pretty penny to re-sign, and Wacha will hopefully re-sign here. Kutter Crawford showed some promise but the Sox are still missing top end arms. There are a ton of holes to fill, even if Whitlock goes back to the rotation. Who are the Red Sox starting in the #1 and #2 slots?

5. Stability in the NESN Booth

This season for NESN was an unpredictable revolving door of commentators in the booth. We saw fan favorites Kevin Youkilis and Kevin Millar take turns behind the mic as well as a plethora of combinations with Dave O’Brien, Dennis Eckersley, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Monaco, and Tony Massarotti. After the passing of Jerry Remy and the retirement of Eck, there has never been a more important time to have a stable booth going into 2023. Just like the Red Sox as a team, the NESN team needs to have steady voices you hear most nights and only mixing in a new person or two on occasion as a guest or fill-in.

After listening to all of them this year, my choice is clear: Mike Monaco and Will Middlebrooks with the occasional 3rd add-on or fill-in of Youk. Monaco’s energy and enthusiasm for the hometown team is contagious in a way not heard in Boston since the departure of Don Orsillo. He hangs on every pitch and knows how to call the big plays to get you excited. A perfect compliment to the play-by-play voice of Monaco is a player who lives and breathes the game of baseball: Middlebrooks. He got very few chances to show his stuff this year in that capacity, but thrived in his pre and post game work. I found myself engaged by his casual banter and knowledge of the game, as well as his ability to tell a story. He has the edge for me thanks also to the ease in which he has conversations and can fill dead air, which during slow or long games is critical (and what made Orsillo/Remy so fun to watch).

Youk is a close 2nd for color commentator for me, but I’m just not sure he’d ever commit to a full season schedule. I’d love to see him as the 3rd man in the booth when possible. He had a comforting presence and familiar voice along with plenty of stories from his playing days, albeit not quite as smooth and natural as Middlebrooks. He did have a significantly longer look than Middlebrooks, which makes me think it’s his job to turn down. Either way, my only hope is that NESN makes a decision rather than continuing the live auditions for another season. I can’t stand a season of 12 different booths without the voices of Orsillo, Remy, and Eck to hold it all together.

Hotter than Hot, The Story is Just Beginning

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The first 6+ weeks of the 2022 season have been awful for the Boston Red Sox. They plummeted to the bottom of the division and until this past week, struggled to win more than a single series. Now things appear to be pointing in a more positive direction and the flashy signing on offense for the Red Sox this offseason is at the heart of the offensive explosion. Over the past 5 games, Trevor Story has started to show the Fenway faithful why Chaim Bloom wanted him in the lineup every day. He has amassed 8 hits and 5 HRs in 5 games, including 4 HRs in his last 2 games, including 12 RBI over that span. He’s also been patient at the plate, drawing a walk in 6 of his last 7 games while striking out just 2 times. A rough start to the season for Story has now begun to turn around.

Over his career, entirely with the Colorado Rockies until this year, Story is a .270 hitter (including this year’s struggles) with 164 HRs. He was aided a bit by the thin air of Coors Field in Denver, but generally is a decent average, bigger power bat averaging 34 HRs per 162 games. As recently as May 15th, Story was hitting an abysmal .196 with 2 HRs in 112 at-bats, which is a HR every 56 at-bats. That’s a far cry from his numbers prior to this year, with a HR every 17.9 at-bats and obviously a significant drop in average (-.076). No matter how you slice it, that’s bad and is not because of the change in uniform or home ballpark. In just the past 5 days, Story has improved his average to .231 with 6 HRs, now with a HR every 21.7 at-bats. Its a sure-fire sign that he’s finally starting to settle into Boston after changing teams and uprooting his life in Colorado.

I certainly don’t expect Story to continue this insane run of power for an extended period of time, but it’s a true glimpse into the impact he can make in the lineup, not just defensively. He’s not going to hit for .300+ every year, but can carry the offense with his power for stretches of time. As he begins to hit, it puts tremendous pressure on the opposing pitcher knowing that there is another dangerous bat lurking besides Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and JD Martinez. If he can correct the ship and be even a .250 hitter with 25-30 HRs a season, that’s 4 big bats who can all easily hit 20-25 HRs, if not more, anchoring the lineup. If Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, when he eventually gets the call, can also live up to their potential, this lineup could have 5 guys in that boat. That becomes a scary order to face.

Ultimately, I’m just happy that Story is finally able to take a breath and contribute to the box score. Boston fans are passionate and can be ruthless at times and even in his short tenure, he’s felt the good and the bad. He was booed on multiple occasions at Fenway just a few weeks ago and the last few nights has felt the warmth and love. He was clearly pressing early in the year, trying to prove he was worth the big contract and now has the opportunity to settle down and just do what he does best, play baseball. We’re seeing more smiles and a seemingly more relaxed Story in the batters box, which is good for everyone involved. As he continues to grow into his role with the Red Sox, Story has the potential to be a fan favorite given his calm, down-to-earth personality. Hopefully, the early bumps and bruises are in the rearview mirror.

Three HRs on Thursday and a grand salami on Friday. What can Story do to top that on Saturday and Sunday? Who knows, but this is finally a team I’m excited to watch on a daily basis.

Signs of Life for the Red Sox?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

After a season worst 5-game losing streak on May 8th and a string of 0 back-to-back wins since April 17th, the Red Sox finally realized the season was about to slip out of their grasp. Thanks to a favorable matchup against the below-.500 Texas Rangers, the Red Sox got over the hump and won their first series of the season since early April. The energy around the team perked up a hair as they faced Houston and despite getting absolutely clobbered thanks to a Nathan Eovaldi home run derby in game 2, they rode Nick Pivetta in the rubber match to secure a 2nd straight series win. This one was much more impressive, because it was against the Houston Astros, the 1st place team in the AL West. For the first time in more than a month, there are some small signs of life in the Red Sox clubhouse.

Over the last 9 games, the biggest difference for this team has been the offense beginning to wake up. We’re finally starting to see the production we expected, as they are scoring 5.75 runs per game during the stretch. Not surprisingly, in the 6 most recent wins, the Red Sox have scored 6.33 runs per game, while just scoring 2.67 runs per game in their 3 losses. It’s no secret, we’ve known this since well before the season began, the Red Sox will go as the offense goes. Besides the big three of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and JD Martinez, the catalysts of the mini-run have been Kike Hernandez, who has at least 1 hit in 6 straight games, Christian Vazquez, who has 7 hits in his last 7 starts behind the plate, and Trevor Story, who despite not hitting for average, has drawn a walk in 5 straight games creating traffic on the bases. All three of those mentioned, plus the rest of the lineup besides the big three, are still struggling well-below their averages, but signs of life have led to more Ws and a glimmer of hope.

Unfortunately, despite finally winning multiple series, the Red Sox have fallen even further behind in the AL East thanks to the absolutely dominant New York Yankees. A 6-3 record is a nice turnaround for the Red Sox, but during that stretch they dropped 2.5 games further behind the Yankees. While the goal at this point can’t be to catch the Bronx Bombers atop the division, you have to expect the Yankees won’t continue on their .757 winning percentage tear and set the MLB record with 122 or 123 wins on the season. The goal needs to be winning the next 2 months to determine if a Wild Card spot is possible or if it’s just not their year and the trade deadline should become a sell-a-thon.

The big question for me despite the recent optimism: Is the season realistically still salvageable? The answer is yes-ish, but it’s going to take a herculean effort. As it stands after their win on May 18th, the Red Sox are 7 games below .500 at 15-22 sitting in 4th place in the AL East, a whopping 13 games behind the Yankees. Their winning percentage is an abysmal .405 and if you think about who is in front of them in the AL East, I think they realistically need to hit 90+ wins to make the postseason (although I know it’s possible for a team to make the postseason with win totals in the upper 80s). At this moment, the 3rd AL Wild Card would go to the Toronto Blue Jays, who are surprisingly just 20-18 with a .526 winning percentage. They are on pace for just 85 wins, but you have to expect that they will pick up the pace a bit and end up near or over 90 wins. If they go 70-54 to finish the season (.564), they will hit win #90. If that is true, they the Red Sox would need to finish the season with at least a .600 winning percentage just to touch the 90-win mark and that’s likely just fighting for the 3rd Wild Card and squeaking into spot in the postseason. It’s possible that the Los Angeles Angels falter also and drop to the 3rd Wild Card, but they have a .600 winning percentage on the season thus far and with two of the best players in baseball, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, will definitely be in the hunt. While a postseason run is not out of the question, to win over 60% of your games just to hang onto hopes of a postseason bid is a monumental task with 125 games remaining.

Before you come at me, I know there are about 1,000 variables and tons of uncertainty when projecting out potential scenarios, but in a season that has been anything but good to this point, it’s worth determining whether the Red Sox keep fighting or become sellers at the deadline. There are 68 games until the August 2nd trade deadline and ultimately the mark in the season when teams make decisions on whether to load up and make a run, stand pat, or sell. In a season with now 3 Wild Card slots per league, more teams will be competitive and in the race, which could be beneficial for teams looking to sell. The number of teams looking to buy will lead to higher asking prices and larger returns. For the Red Sox, if they win 60% of the 68 games in this stretch (that’s a big if), they will be sitting at about 66-49 and in a strong position to compete for the postseason and not be sellers. If they are winning closer to 55%, which would be the 6th highest winning percentage in the AL right now, then they are sitting at just 52-53 and are likely sellers focused on 2023. Just a percent or two can be the difference between loading up for a run and pointing toward the future. The worst place to be would be in between those two records, unsure of whether to buy or sell. Thanks to the awful start, the pressure is extremely high to have a shot at competing for the postseason come August.

Ultimately, while there are more glimmers of hope in the past week than most of the season so far, it’s going to be a tough road ahead if the Red Sox want to make the postseason. They are going to need their lineup to continually score 5+ runs per game and have their starters continue to perform well, with perhaps fewer of the duds Nathan Eovaldi put out there in game 2 of the Houston series, allowing 5 HRs in 1 inning. It’s unclear whether they will get support from James Paxton and Chris Sale this year and even if they do, when is an even bigger question mark. Perhaps we are seeing the page turn now and the Red Sox are ready to pull a Boston Celtics and emerge from the depths of despair to the sunshine of success, shocking everyone including me. I’m not holding my breath.

Love for the Universal DH

/ Brian Phair / 7 Comments

When the MLB officially announced the universal DH would go into effect this season (if there is one), it was confirmation of the inevitable. It’s a win/win for owners and players in a time when it seems like they can’t agree on much. Since the announcement however, there has been significant pushback from certain segments of fans about the decision. One person even took up residence on the streets outside Dodgers Stadium with a sign reading “Death to the DH” to protest the change. While that’s clearly one person looking for attention, I’ve seen more and more fans disagreeing with the decision and I just can’t understand any legitimate reason why a universal DH isn’t good for the sport of baseball.

Regardless of whether you are a fan of low-scoring games or HR-filled contests, the universal DH is a much better product than having pitchers hit. For most pitchers, they are faced with the situation of needing to sacrifice over a runner or swing away (or not swing) and hope they don’t get hurt. In 2021, there were 4,829 plate appearances featuring a player who was pitching that day across both leagues and those plate appearances resulted in just 462 hits and a .110 average. The vast majority of those at-bats were non-competitive, which is terrible baseball to watch. The outcome of the at-bat was pre-determined based on who is or is not on base. If you compare the pitchers at-bats to the DH spot, players in the DH spot in the lineup produced a .239 average in 2021. The numbers show a significant increase in legitimate and competitive at-bats when there is a DH in the lineup. Additionally, you add a power-element for those who like lots of runs with a DH vs a pitcher. Pitchers produced a HR every 284 plate appearances in 2021, while players in the DH spot produced a HR every 24 at-bats last season.

There is certainly a lore around pitchers hitting and it seems like we see videos of a pitcher getting a big hit or RBI regularly, but that’s a rare occurrence. I’ve read a bunch of people making the argument that we won’t ever get to see a player like Bartolo Colon hit again with the universal DH and while that’s 100% true, it’s also extremely misguided. Everyone remembers Colon’s big HR in 2016 at the age of 42 and the excitement around that hit lingered for years. Well, in Colon’s career 326 plate appearances during his 21 seasons in the league, he hit .084 with 1 HR and 11 RBIs. Is that 1 hit worth hundreds of non-competitive, terrible at-bats that were unwatchable? The overall product would have been, and will be going forward, more enjoyable to watch. With the universal DH, pitchers in the National League won’t have an automatic out in every single lineup (never fear, there will still be plenty of easy hitters in many lineups) and we will finally be able to accurately compare pitchers in both leagues without needing the caveat that one was in the AL vs the NL.

As it relates to the players, the universal DH is a great thing for the sport. The DH allows an additional position player to get in the lineup every single night and it affords older players who have lost a step defensively a place on a roster and playing time. It creates more opportunities for players like Red Sox DH/LF J.D. Martinez, who would have been confined to the AL when is contract is up, but now can explore options in both leagues. The expansion in the NL now allows a team the option to take a player who is a defensive liability and remove them from the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. It opens up opportunities in both leagues for future stars like 1st ballot Hall of Famer David Ortiz, who was tremendously talented in the batters box, but was just average or below defensively. 

My least favorite argument against the universal DH is that it’s not “real baseball” or “not the baseball I grew up with.” First off, if you are saying either if those lines you’re probably right in the baseball average demographic, 50+ years old. Second, every single sport grows and evolves over time to attract a broader audience and fit the current environment. Just as basketball added a 3pt line and hockey reduced the size of goalie pads, baseball needs to adapt. I would argue that baseball is significantly further behind than other sports in terms of bringing in younger viewers, which in the long term is detrimental to the league. Adding a more competitive batter in the lineup every night is at least a push in the right direction (albeit a very small one).

With the MLB struggling with viewership and in the middle of a public, ugly CBA negotiation, the addition of a universal DH is at least one positive step forward. Finally we can put to bed the days of fundamentally different strategies depending on your league. I, for one, am extremely excited about this change and anyone who wants to see baseball not only survive, but thrive, should be as well. Now, let’s hope for a 2022 baseball season.

The 2021 ALCS MVP Will Be….

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

There are a lot of players on the Boston Red Sox who could emerge as the MVP of the ALCS against the Houston Astros that begins on Friday. There are a lot of hitters with postseason experience in the lineup and a number of pitchers who have the potential to be dominant in a 7-game series. It wouldn’t surprise me if the most valuable player on the Red Sox is a more under-the-radar player like one of the Christians (Arroyo or Vazquez) or a critical long-reliever out of the bullpen (Tanner Houck), but if I had to pick today before the series begins, I’m picking Rafael Devers.

Devers has had a monster year for the Red Sox, slugging 38 HRs and driving in 113 RBIs while playing in 156 games. He seemed to have big hit after big hit when the Red Sox needed him the most. Down the stretch, he was still hitting bombs and driving in runs with a forearm injury that appeared to look better in game 4 of the ALDS and hopefully, with some time off this week, can be closer to 100% in this series.

One of the biggest reasons for my pick is Devers’ history in the postseason against the Houston Astros. In 2 previous series, the 2017 ALDS and the 2018 ALCS, Devers played in 8 games against the Astros and accumulated 9 hits in 24 at-bats, including 3 HRs, 11 RBIs and 4 BBs. That’s an impressive .375 batting average against a historically strong pitching staff in high-leverage situations and I’d argue that Devers is a better hitter now than he was in 2017 and 2018.

With a healthy J.D. Martinez, Raffy is also in a great position to see pitches to hit. If he’s in the 3rd spot in the lineup, then he has Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo, and Hunter Renfroe behind him. In very few situations does it make sense to pitch around Devers to get to the powerful bats behind him in the lineup. On the other end, he has the patient Kyle Schwarber and red-hot Kike Hernandez in front of him to set the table, so the chances are higher that he bats with runners on base. This season Devers hit .300 with 15 HRs and 84 RBIs with runners in scoring position.

It is anyone’s guess at this point how the ALCS will unfold, but if the Red Sox are to upset the Astros, they will need a strong offensive output and that starts with Raffy Devers. You heard it here first: Rafael Devers ALCS MVP.

Can the Bleeding Be Stopped for the Red Sox?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The last few weeks have been an abject disaster for the Boston Red Sox. The team has gone from an over-achieving, likable contender that was fun to watch to an under-achieving, disappointing mess that makes me want to turn off the TV at least twice a game. Since July 28th, the Red Sox are 3-10 and have gone from 1st place in the AL East, 2.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays and 8.5 games ahead of the New York Yankees, to 2nd place in the AL East, 4 games back of the Rays and just 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees. The team is collapsing in every aspect of play with less than 50 games left. Can the season be salvaged at this point?

The 2021 season has been a tail of two halves (pre/post All Star game). The 1st half saw the Red Sox surprise everyone with a 55-36 record and a +57 run differential. After a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles to start the year, the team turned on the jets and were winning games in every way, including 30+ come from behind victories. It felt like this team had the championship contender x-factors: grittiness and never-give-up-mentality. Then the 2nd half of the season kicked off and the team has lost the qualities we fell in love with earlier in the year. Their 10-13 record in the 2nd half is highlighted by a -24 run differential.

The biggest issue with the team right now? It depends on the game, but basically everything. For most of the season the starting pitching has been just OK but the offense has more than made up for poor starts. The offense overall was averaging a very strong 5.1 runs per game before the All-Star break, but since the break, that number has dropped more than a run per game to 3.8. On the pitching side, the staff was allowing 4.0 runs per game in the first half and have been allowing 4.6 runs per game since the break. While the pitching jump isn’t as drastic as the offensive production drop, the combination of the two is dramatic.

The struggles on offense can be directly linked to the top two hitters in the lineup, J.D. Martinez (.253 in 21 games in the 2nd half with just 3 HRs and 9 RBIs) and Xander Bogaerts (.221 in 20 games in the 2nd half with 1 HR and 5 RBIs). During the 1st half of the season, Martinez’s average was .046 points higher and Bogaerts’ average was .100 points higher than the 2nd half. Overall, the team average dropped .009, which doesn’t seem significant in a small sample, but is obviously showing itself in runs scored. There is also some diminished power in the 2nd half of the season with the team’s HRs per game number dropping from 1.26 to 1.13, but even the 1.13 is inflated thanks to a 6 HR and 5 HR game on July 19 and 21. Since July 21, the Red Sox are hitting just 0.72 HRs per game.

The the pitching side, it’s a different chapter of the same story. Only 2 of the 5 primary starting pitchers on the Red Sox has an ERA at or below their career average, meaning that based on ERA alone, 3/5 of the starting rotation is underachieving this season. Since ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, a look at WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning) confirms the struggles with 3/5 of the rotation above their career average. While the overall picture isn’t great, the 1st half vs 2nd half disparity is even worse. The ERA growth in the 2nd half of the season is absolutely crushing the team right now. All but one starter’s ERA has grown since the All-Star break, and the lone exception, E-Rod, was already so high at 5.52 before the break that a drop isn’t shocking (Garrett Richards +1.84 ERA, Nathan Eovaldi +2.30, Eduardo Rodriguez -1.32, Martin Perez +4.78, Nick Pivetta +0.20).

There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of talk around the inactivity at the trade deadline for the Red Sox, but I’m honestly not sure it would have made enough of a difference. As the offense has come back down to earth and the pitching staff has struggle a bit more, one more starter and one more offensive player weren’t going to turn around the fortunes of this club, but could have helped win a game or two. It’s an overall team struggle at the moment.

There were a few encouraging offensive signs in the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays. If the bats can come alive and return to form and the pitching staff can begin to right the ship just a little, even just a little, they can recover. The addition of a 75% Chris Sale will help significantly by moving a starter to the bullpen helping to alleviate some strain there. The Red Sox are still 16 games above .500 despite the horrible slide, so a course correction could leave them in the hunt. I don’t think they are good enough to be a legitimate championship contender anymore the way the roster stands, but some competitive postseason baseball would be nice…please.

It’s Time to Push the Red Sox Panic Button

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

After a disappointing and flat trade deadline that did not address the most glaring needs on the roster, the Red Sox opened a 3-game set with the 2nd place Tampa Bay Rays just 0.5 games ahead in the AL East. After being swept in, at times, embarrassing fashion, and on a 4-game losing streak, it’s officially time to panic. The 1.5 game deficit in the division is obviously not insurmountable, but with the improved New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays poised to make a run at 2nd and a wild card berth (now just 5.5 and 6.5 games behind the Red Sox respectively), it’s going to get worse before it’s over.

The major issue for this team is the pitching staff. Before a great outing from P Nick Pivetta on Sunday to kick-off August, the staff struggled. In July, the staff had a 4.56 ERA, allowed 29 HRs, and walked 76 batters in 25 games. That translates to 1.16 HRs and 3.04 BBs per game during the month. Your current “ace” P Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t gone past 6 innings since April and hasn’t even recorded an out in the 6th inning in 10 of his last 15 starts. His past two starts are a combined 4.1 innings with 7 earned runs and his ERA for the season is now 5.60 including a concerning 1 inning outing where he left with a migraine. E-Rod just can’t seem to reach his potential for any extended period of time.

The rest of the rotation has been up and down as well. The down is definitely P Garrett Richards who just doesn’t look like he belongs in a major league rotation at this point. I’m sure the Red Sox are waiting for Sale to return to boot him, but it’s getting hard to watch when his turn is up. In his last 10 starts, his ERA has steadily grown every single game from 3.75 to 5.15. He’s a guaranteed 4 runs allowed per game in 4-5 innings. The up has been P Nathan Eovaldi when he’s on, but just like everyone else, has had several bad games in the last month or two, allowing 5 runs in 2 of his last 4 starts.

Chris Sale will be returning at some point, but even if he is 100% vintage Sale, which he will not be, he can only pitch every 5 days. When the other 4 days are up and down short outings and taxed bullpen arms, the losses will pile up, especially with 20 more games to play against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. If the Red Sox make the postseason, and that’s a big if, I have very little confidence in the pitching staff to hold off a heavy-hitting lineup.

If the pitching staff is just ok, then the offense for the Red Sox needs to step up and score a ton of runs. That leads me to the other glaring weakness of the team, first base. Red Sox first baseman this year are hitting a combined .217 with an OBP of .261 and just 14 HRs in 107 games. The leader of the pack is 1B Bobby Dalbec with a WAR of -1.1 and a staggering .214 average. Everyone knew coming up that he had a tendency to strikeout, but that could be offset by his power and decent average. In 86 games (299 PAs), he is hitting .214 with 11 HRs and 113 Ks. If the Red Sox had any other option, he would be in AAA right now. The addition of OF Kyle Schwarber could help if he can convert to first base, but he’s still a week or two away from being able to play with his hamstring issue and then needs to take some time to get comfortable there. By that point, the Red Sox could be 5-6 games out and hanging on by a thread to 3rd or even 4th place in the division.

The larger offensive concern right now is the overall team production. Everyone thought OF Jarren Duran would be the spark to light the team on fire, but he’s struggling big time with a .150 average and just 1 HR and 17 Ks in 14 games (43 PAs). He’s more of a liability than an asset and may just find himself out of the playoff picture (if the Sox get there) replaced by Schwarber, or anyone else, in the outfield. The heavy-hitters in the lineup are also struggling, with DH/OF J.D. Martinez looking a bit lost at the plate hitting .146 in his last 12 games and SS Xander Bogaerts hitting .225 in his last 22 games. This team needs a lot of offensive production to compensate for shaky pitching at times and right now, they are getting neither.

There is obviously still time for things to turn around. The offense could begin to get going and return to their big-hitting form and the starting pitching could give this team just enough to win a bunch of games, but right now, things look pretty scary. It’s the worst this team has looked all season at the worst possible time to be struggling with everyone around them turning it on for the stretch run. On top of that, the AL West may grab one of the two wild card berths, making it a 4-way fight for two spots, instead of three in another year. I want to believe, but I just don’t have a good feeling about how this will end.