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Taking Stock of the Pats After 3 Weeks

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Now that we’re 3 weeks into the NFL season, it’s a good time to take a deeper dive into the 2023 New England Patriots and where they have surprised us, good and bad. The Pats leave week 3 with a 1-2 record and already sit 2 games back in the AFC East. On one hand, that’s definitely not the start most fans had hoped for and puts them behind the 8-ball when it comes to playoff hopes very early in the season but on the other hand, they had to face last year’s NFC Superbowl representative Philadelphia Eagles in week 1 and division rival Miami Dolphins in week 2, who look to be an early season Superbowl favorite with their high-powered offense. A loss is a loss but the Pats were one play away from winning both of those matchups which is a bit encouraging. Lets dig a little deeper.

I’ll start with the defense because it’s a much less painful review. Overall, the Pats D has held opponents to the 7th lowest completion percentage, which given 2 of the 3 QBs they have faced is very solid. They’ve allowed a bit more on the ground, the 12th fewest rush yards allowed, but overall holding the Eagles to 25 pts, the Dolphins to their season low of 24 pts, and the Jets to 10 pts should have been enough to win potentially all 3 contests. Matthew Judon looked good in the first 2 games but came alive against the Jets tallying 2 sacks, 4 tackles and a safety. Despite being incredibly thin thanks to injuries in the secondary, the Pats have held their own thanks in large part to Christian Gonzalez. The rookie has come into the league and has impressed a lot of people with his ability to cover top guys and already has an impressive INT to his name. He was forced to play the Jets #1 weapon in Garrett Wilson in week 3 and absolutely shut him down. Not many rookies could compete at this level this quickly. If they can get at least 2 of the Jones’ back soon, the secondary should be able to matchup decently well with most other teams.

Where to begin on the offensive side of the ball. The o-line has been mediocre at best and that may be too kind. Despite their individual size, the offensive line is thinner than a piece of paper. Injuries and lack of depth have led to a dumpster fire at times trying to protect Mac Jones and block for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. The Pats have two great weapons in the run game and it feels like most runs get shut down after a yard or two thanks to a missed or poor block from the line. If Mac doesn’t have time to throw, it makes it pretty damn hard to move the down the field. I’m sure Andrew Van Genkel is going to be a really solid NFL player, but the Pats made him look like the next coming of Julius Peppers with how easily he was able to get past the pathetic offensive line in week 2. Case in point, on both late 4th quarter drives for the Pats within 1-score against the Eagles and Dolphins, a Mac sack thanks to a blown line block put the offense behind the chains and made it significantly harder for him to put a sustained drive together. Fortunately, they got Trent Brown back in week 3 and will hopefully continue to get healthier as the season wears on but I’m just not sure a fully healthy group is good enough.

The most confusing part of this offense is the receiving core. Juju Smith-Schuster looks like he shouldn’t be on the field with what appears to be a knee issue. Every route he needs to run that requires a cut is absolutely awful and leads to too many seemingly errant throws from Mac. When rewatching Juju’s targets, in almost every case Mac is putting the ball where a healthy receiver who can make the cuts should be, especially a healthy Juju. The fact they even look his way at this point is baffling. Demario Douglas looks like a guy with potential, but an early season fumble and a few shaker moments seem to have put him in the doghouse. Kendrick Bourne and Devante Parker each have moments but can’t seem to consistently get open and be reliable targets. The tight ends are the key to this offense in my opinion, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki being solid pass catchers with potential to gain a few yards after catch and the odd emergence of Pharoah Brown against the Jets with a few big time catches and one really nice TD run. As long as the receiving core looks like it does now, there should be 15-20 plays for 5-15 yards to the tight ends as much as possible. Put two or even three on the field and make opponents guard all of them with smaller corners or slower linebacker.

My biggest issues with this team in general after 3 weeks are penalties and turnovers. The Pats are -2 in turnover differential on the season which is a recipe for close losses. Not surprisingly, the Pats had a negative turnover differential in their 2 losses and a 0 turnover differential in their only win. When losing the differential, NFL teams only win around 30% of the time. Additionally, the Pats have been committing lots of dumb mental-mistake penalties. Thus far this season, the Pats are averaging 6 penalties a game accounting for 46 yards lost. While it’s not horrible, when you’re playing in close 1-score games every week, discipline can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Overall, I don’t think anyone is happy with 1-2 thus far, but not everything is doom and gloom. More discipline and some much needed health at certain positions could put the Pats back where many expected them to be, a .500 to slightly better team with borderline playoff aspirations. In the AFC East, it’s going to be a grind all season and dropping close games won’t make life any easier when we start seriously talking playoffs. What is the Pats reward for getting through week 3? A date with the 2-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas coming off a bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It’s not going to be easy for the Pats to get back to .500 next week.

Blueprint for a Zappe Takeover

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Just 70 pass attempts into his NFL career, Bailey Zappe has riled up the Patriots fanbase and Boston sports media. The rookie 4th rounder found himself on the field as an NFL QB in just his 4th game on the roster and now is the starting QB for the New England Patriots at 23 years old. Zappe unexpectedly broke onto the scene following a Mac Jones sprained ankle and a Brian Hoyer concussion and now in 3 games (2 starts and a 3+ quarter effort off the bench) he has raised significant questions about the future at QB1 for the Pats. We’ve seen it in New England before in the most memorable surprise QB takeover of all time. Is this second once-in-a-lifetime QB move for Belichick? All the ingredients are there for a changing of the guard at QB1.

First let’s look at the case for Zappe as QB1. The most obvious is that he’s stepped in under difficult circumstances and had very few “rookie” moments. You expect a young QB to make some bad reads, hold the ball too long, or in general just be indecisive. While there have been a few isolated moments, Zappe has shown that nearly every single series he is able to make good decisions. He’s made smart throws and committed very few turnovers in 11+ quarters of play, something Belichick loves to see. For the most part, he hasn’t tried to force passes into bad situations (double coverage) and has done a nice job of managing the offense on longer, sustained drives. Beyond just being a game manager, he’s made some big throws and reads on important drives in the past 2 games against the Lions and Browns. He has an average QB rating of 111.4 and has been at 100+ in all 3 of his appearances.

A noticeable characteristic of Zappe’s game is his confidence. It feels like he is in control of the game and is able to forget mistakes and move on extremely quickly. He has the goldfish mentality of short-term memory loss. A great example of this was a drive in the 3rd quarter of Sundays game vs the Browns. Zappe had a tough 3-and-out thanks partially to a 1st down holding call on Trent Brown. He threw to Tyquan Thornton for just 2 yards on 1st, then on 3rd and 15 he missed a wide-open Hunter Henry with a terribly thrown ball. He seemed frustrated walking off the field and frankly, he looked a lot like a rookie QB during the series. Then after getting the ball back, as if the previous drive hadn’t happened, Zappe threw for 8 yards to Jonnu Smith followed by a 31-yard strike to Hunter Henry for a TD. He shook off the bad series and moved on immediately, showing confidence in his arm while throwing for a critical TD in a relatively close 9-pt game.

Since I unironically and unintentionally keep calling him Brady Zappe, let’s take a quick look at how the 2 QBs compare after nearly 3 games under their belt. After taking over for Drew Bledsoe on September 23, 2001, Brady was 30 for 57 (53%) for 300 yards in his partial game and next two starts, throwing for 0 TDs and 0 INTs. By comparison, Zappe was 51 for 70 (73%) for 596 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT (100% Nelson Agholor‘s fault) over a similar span of time. That’s a pretty dramatic difference, despite it not being a perfect 1-for-1 comparison given the era, a small sample size, etc. To take it one step further, looking at Mac Jones’ first 3 games (all starts, so more snaps), he went 81 for 120 (68%) for 737 with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. The completion percentage and yardage is strong, but it’s hard to argue that Mac’s 3 INTs (all against the Saints week 3) and just 2 TDs aren’t as impressive and Zappe’s start.

The positives are clearly there for Zappe and he has earned the praise and head-turns, but I’m not yet convinced he should Brady-takeover Mac Jones. Zappe has had the privilege of a top-tier defense in his 2 starts, never trailing in either game and honestly the games were never that close. That’s allowed him to play relaxed and with less pressure, which is obviously hugely beneficial for a young kid. He did have a few high-pressure drives in Green Bay and was fine, but he clearly had a limited playbook given the circumstances and it is really tough to judge that performance after being thrown into the game unexpectedly. Additionally, he’s yet to play a really good defense in his young career, facing the Packers, Lions, and Browns. A lot of QBs can look good against average or below average defenses, so a bigger test against a better D would help in evaluating his long-term potential. I’ve heard a lot of narratives about how bad Mac was to begin the year and how good Zappe is in comparison, but the competition-level and time of season make it an apples to oranges comparison. Would Mac be having a similar level of success as Zappe against these opponents? It’s possible.

I was convinced there would be no official Zappe takeover during this past week, but have begun to shift my feelings thanks to a factor not related to performance. Boston sports teams and media have a bad habit of running a “smear” campaign to justify a big move or a big benching, among all of the major sports in town. For Red Sox fans, we’ve seen the a LOT of this nonsense over the years. This week began that campaign against Mac Jones. There were multiple reports that the Patriots and Jones had a “serious” rift over how to handle his high-ankle sprain, some claiming that the relationship has been damaged “beyond repair”. In these situations, I always wonder who the “sources” of the information really are. Is it coming from within the Patriots organization in an effort to justify a future Jones benching? Is it a media-fed story to add fuel to the fire of a QB controversy? Either way, where there is smoke, there is usually fire and that leads me to think that a Zappe QB1 scenario may not be as far-fetched as initially thought.

I’m not sure we’ve reached a clear tipping point in the QB1 controversy just yet. I think a longer look at Zappe is not out of the question and would be adventitious. The Patriots could easily keep delaying the return of Mac with his questionable ankle (high-sprains are notoriously tricky) and continue to get a look at the rookie in other scenarios and against better opponents. This week the Pats play on Monday night at home against the Bears who have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and are tied for allowing the 2nd fewest touchdowns this season. They are solid and should provide an interesting opportunity for Zappe, especially in primetime (assuming he starts). Regardless of who is QB1 going forward, the emergence of Zappe is an extreme positive for the Patriots, because it increases his trade value and/or opens the door for a Mac trade in the future. Young QBs who have proven they can play in the NFL are extremely valuable and the Pats may have two of them. Additionally, some serious competition at a critical position usually pushes both guys to get better and play at the top of their game.

Now it’s up to Belichick to make a potentially franchise-altering decision at the arguably most important position in football. No pressure.

The Bailey Zappe Hype Train

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Going into Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, the New England Patriots had a steep hill to climb. Their QB1 was out with a high-ankle sprain and the reigns of the offense were handed off to career backup QB2 Brian Hoyer. Generating any offensive movement was likely to be a challenge, especially at Lambeau, one of the toughest places to play in all of football. Then came another blow, when Hoyer went down with a head injury (believed to be a concussion) on the Pats 2nd offensive drive in the 1st quarter thanks to Packers LB Rashan Gary absolutely owning DT Isaiah Wynn and getting a clean hit on the QB. In a flash, 2022 4th round draft pick, rookie QB3 Bailey Zappe was forced into an incredibly difficult spot for his first NFL snaps under center. The 23-year old took his first official snap of his NFL career in the shadow of his own endzone, the loudest area of Lambeau Field. Being thrown into the fire doesn’t even begin to capture the situation for the young QB.

Zappe ultimately performed about as well as one can expect for a QB who has likely had very few reps with the starting offense and was playing in a hostile environment. The offensive play-calling clearly leaned more conservative with Zappe under center and several of his first throws were on the run, off-balance, and in the ground short. He was strip-sacked right before halftime thanks to holding the ball a bit too long but regrouped in the 2nd half and did a solid job of stabilizing the offense and not making any game-altering mistakes. He made a nice 25-yard throw to WR DeVante Parker towards the end of the 3rd quarter for a TD to give the Pats the lead 17-14. The officials missed a delay of game on the play, but frankly the officials missed so many calls throughout that it was hard to keep track of all their mistakes. After a Green Bay game-tying FG, Zappe led the Patriots down the field for a 7-play, 66-yard drive ending in a RB Damien Harris 5-yr TD run to give them a 24-17 advantage. He made another nice throw for 21 yards to WR Nelson Agholor on that drive that set the team up inside the 10.

After Green Bay tied the game at 24, the Patriots offense went incredible conservative while the Pats defense stepped up and shutdown the Packers offense. In his first game as an NFL QB, Zappe had led the Pats to OT on the road against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. After exchanging punts thanks to 3-and-outs for both teams, Rodgers did what he’s done his whole career and marched the Packers down the field, setting up a game-winning FG as time ran out in OT for K Mason Crosby. It resulted in the 3rd loss of the season for the Patriots and an abysmal 1-3 record, but if there is ever a time for moral victories in football, this was it.

The fact the Patriots were even competitive in this game is huge for Zappe’s confidence. The Packers were favored by 9.5 points prior to the game with Hoyer as their starter and I’m guessing would have been 12-15 point favorites if the odds makers knew Hoyer would go down in the 1st quarter. It wasn’t perfect and it wasn’t always pretty, but Zappe finished 10-15 for 99 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs and a QB rating of 107.4. Other than the L, that’s more than you can ask for from a young QB who was thrown into the lion’s den. Regardless of how this week transpires for Hoyer and if he remains in concussion protocol or not, Bailey Zappe should have another chance to prove himself on the biggest stage against the Detroit Lions at home this Sunday. This time, with a week of preparation and taking snaps with the starters in practice.

Zappe was reportedly on the Patriots radar during the entire draft this past year, with hopes he would be available in the 4th round when they picked. The Western Kentucky product transferred from Houston Baptist for his senior year and was the 2021 Conference USA MVP and ranked 2nd in the NCAA in pass completions and 1st in pass attempts last season. He finished with the 9th highest completion percentage in 2021 (69.2%) and led the country in passing yards (5,967) and TDs (62). Zappe led the Hilltoppers to a 59-38 victory in the 2021 Boca Raton Bowl over Appalachian State and took home the MVP trophy thanks to a 6 TD, 422 yard performance (33 for 47). While his competition wasn’t nearly the level of many of the top QBs drafted last year, he was able to produce at the FBS level with insane regularity. At 6’1″, 220lbs, Zappe isn’t the tallest QB and has plenty of room to grow his game, but that’s to be expected this early in his career.

From the Patriots perspective, they have to be happy with how Zappe handled himself in the game but also in the post game. He was calm and steady as he took questions from the media, giving credit to his teammates and owning a few things he could have done better. He talked about the game, but also seemed to be turning the page to the next opportunity which felt like the perfect fit in the Bill Belichick system of handling the media.

The future is uncertain for Bailey Zappe with QB1 Mac Jones on the road to recovery, but this was a really nice debut for the young kid. The more time he gets to prepare and learn behind veterans like Hoyer, the more he will continue to improve and perhaps get himself ready to be an NFL starter, whether in New England or elsewhere. For now, he’s taking it week-by-week and is focused on the Lions.

The Looming Josh McDaniels Departure

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

The will they/won’t they saga of the Las Vegas Raiders GM and coaching search has been a wild ride. In 24 hours it went from Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels and Patriots Director of Player Personnel Dave Ziegler as potential candidates headed to Vegas as head coach and GM, to them both being out of consideration and neither in the running, back to both of them being favored as a pair to take the head coach and GM jobs. The Raiders are known for having no idea what they are doing when it comes to hiring and there is no greater example of that than when they asked for an interview with GM candidate Dave Ziegler prior to even firing their current GM Mike Mayock. Mark Davis really knows how to run a franchise… Putting Vegas aside, if Josh McDaniels were to depart New England, for real this time, what impact would it have on the Patriots franchise?

The first question becomes who replaces McDaniels as offensive coordinator. While there isn’t a clear and obvious internal choice, the Patriots could consider promoting wide receivers/kick returners coach and Patriots legend Troy Brown to that role. He’s quite inexperienced in the coaching world, which is certainly a disadvantage, but not completely out of the blue for Belichick, especially if he trusts and respects Brown as a coach. It’s possible that Belichick could begin by taking over the play-calling reigns with Brown as an offensive assistant and eventually hand over the play-calling duties to him over time. It’s near impossible to say what Brown’s style as a play-caller would be other than continuing the Patriots current system, so if he were to be hired, there would be a lot of interested eyes watching his every move. While I wouldn’t say this is a strong possibility, I think it’s worth watching.

While the internal candidates aren’t obvious, there is a blatantly obvious external name on the table when replacing McDaniels. Bill Belichick could dip into his well, as he loves to do, and bring back Bill O’Brien, who was an assistant on the staff from 2007-2011 (offensive coordinator in 2011). He’s locally connected (grew up in Massachusetts, went to Brown University in RI) and has spent time both as a head coach in the NFL and college as well as an offensive coordinator in college since his departure from the Patriots. After being fired as the Houston Texans head coach in 2020 after 6ish seasons, he took over as the offensive coordinator under Belichick’s favorite college coach, Nick Saban. O’Brien just happens to be learning the Alabama offense and QB Mac Jones just happens to have had success in that same Alabama offense just a little over a year ago. To say the path seems clear and obvious is an understatement.

If O’Brien replaces McDaniels, what does that mean for the offense in general? There were certainly times last season that it felt like the play-calling wasn’t as effective as it had been in the past. A piece of that is the introduction of a rookie QB into a complicated offense and the need to simplify, at least in the first half of the season. Another piece of that equation was McDaniels trying to learn where Mac Jones was most comfortable and help ease him into the league without wrecking his confidence. McDaniels spent most of his career calling plays for a QB that he knew inside and out and that made him look great consistently. When that comfort was stripped away, some cracks emerged, but that frankly would happen to most any offensive coordinator/rookie QB combo across the league. Looking at O’Brien’s history as offensive coordinator, his style could help Jones and the Patriots move forward.

O’Brien’s lone season as the offensive coordinator with the Patriots in 2011 was one of, if not the most prolific seasons of Tom Brady‘s career. Removing this past season because of 1 extra game, 2011 was Brady’s highest yards thrown (5,235) and he was tied for the most passes completed (401) in a season. O’Brien was deemed an innovative and creative offensive mind, which helped propel him to the head coaching job at Penn State the next season. This past season, O’Brien led Alabama QB Bryce Young and the offense to a strong season, culminating in a loss in the College Championship game. The offense was the 6th most prolific in points per game, 4th in passing TDs per game, and 7th in total passing yards per game. It’s a bit hard to really judge given the dominant system he walked into, but O’Brien has some very recent experience in a high-level, pro-style system that happens to transition into the current Patriots system easily.

Ultimately, if O’Brien is the new offensive coordinator I don’t see a ton of change overall. I think O’Brien will perhaps be a bit more aggressive than McDaniels, but he’ll also have a 2nd year QB with more experience than this past season. For Jones’ sake, O’Brien would likely keep much of the same offense and just ramp up some of the pre-play motion and hopefully continue to push the creative boundaries of play-calling. O’Brien had a lot of success in 2011 with short-mid range passing game, utilizing the slot receivers and TEs in creative ways. That fits nicely with Jones’ play-style and skillset and doesn’t deviate much from the current design.

After many threats of an exit for McDaniels (seemingly every year), this year might be a good time for both parties to move on. McDaniels hasn’t exactly wowed the past few years and it’s about time he actually takes another head coaching job if he doesn’t see Belichick’s retirement on the horizon. One theory around why he took, then turned down the Colts job in 2018 was because there was some unwritten agreement that he was the heir-apparent when Belichick finally retires. Whether that’s true or not, any decision to walk away from the Patriots at this point makes me think that McDaniels believes Bill is hanging on for at least a few more years and his future path within the organization isn’t clear.

While nothing is locked in yet, this could finally be the year that Josh McDaniels finally leaves the Patriots franchise after his 2nd stint in New England and 6 super bowl championships. On the other hand, you never know what decision the Raiders will make. There is still a strong possibility that we are right back here next season having the same conversation about a potential McDaniels departure. Let the offseason hiring carousel continue to spin.

Patriots Embarrassed in Buffalo

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

For the first time in a long time, the Patriots looked absolutely over matched in Saturday night’s AFC Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills. There wasn’t a single person, position group, or coach that looked good against the Bills in the worst playoff loss of the Bill Belichick era as the head coach and one of the worst losses for the franchise. The loss was a really sour note at the end of a surprisingly enjoyable season for the Patriots who were led by a rookie franchise QB.

After a 1-year rebuild, the Pats returned to the playoffs again thanks to a 7-game win streak in the middle of the season. They surprised a lot of people and turned some heads during the win-streak and made many fans believe a deep playoff run was possible. Unfortunately, the team lost all momentum the last several games of the season and forgot how to play disciplined, smart football, a Belichick staple. Mistakes became the story of losses to Buffalo and Miami and as the Patriots played their way out of the AFC East title and into a wild card game on the road. Limping into the playoffs is rarely a recipe for success and boy was that true this year.

My biggest issues down the stretch with this team were discipline and play-calling (along with about a dozen other things). The most baffling to me is the complete lack of discipline. From penalties to missed assignments, the mistakes were plentiful down the stretch and exaggerated in the playoff loss on Saturday night. Most of the mistakes were mental errors such as too many men on the field and false start penalties and lapses in coverage that are mind-boggling. I don’t understand what happened to this team in the final portion of the season to completely forget how to play within themselves and within their position. Despite discipline ultimately resting on the players shoulders, it’s a terrible reflection on the coaching staff and their inability to prepare their players. All of it was very un-Belichick like and makes me wonder what’s happening behind the scenes.

My other main issue that was amplified on Saturday is play-calling. Josh McDaniels seems lost in what to call and when to call it the latter part of the season. On Saturday night, the first drive had a few rushes, but featured the passing game from Mac. He had one wide-open pass dropped by Brandon Bolden and the drive ended with an incredible interception by Micah Hyde, but overall looked like he could exploit the defense a bit. The following drive, McDaniels called 3 straight rushes by Damien Harris and the Patriots had to punt without even trying to look at the short or medium passing game. Later in the game, there were a number of odd calls that just didn’t fit the situation, including a fake spike at the end of the half that resulted in a terrible sack. Also, what happened to the hurry up offense that Mac looked so strong in earlier in the season? It disappeared.

The list of other issues is long, but I’ll save that for the long offseason. Based on what I saw down the stretch, I’m not sure all the Patriots positional coaches deserve to keep their jobs for the 2022-2023 season. Change is needed, whether it’s directed by the Patriots or because they lose someone to a head coaching offer elsewhere.

Saturday night was rough and will take time to get over. Take a day off and get right back to work for next season.

Third Time’s a Charm – Patriots vs Bills Playoff Edition

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

As playoff scenarios began to play out during the inaugural week 18 in the NFL, it was clear to everyone that the Bills and Patriots would meet for the third time this season in the playoffs. Even as the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers game crept into OT and the Pats vs Bengals scenario was still alive, it just felt like the Raiders had to win so the Bills and Patriots could play once more this season. The matchup is everything the NFL could want in a #3 vs #6 matchup on wild card weekend and they put the rivalry game in primetime on Saturday for all to witness.

The previous two matchups this season between the Bills and Patriots have been, well, interesting. The first was the “wind-game” where the Patriots went into Buffalo and ran all over the Bills. Mac Jones had exactly 3 pass attempts and the Patriots managed a 14-10 victory on the road thanks to 41 rushes. Damien Harris had 11 yards rushing on just 10 carries and a TD, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 24 times for 78 yards. Mac completed 2 of his 3 passes to Jonnu Smith and Brandon Bolden and the Pats relied on a strong defensive presence to grab the road victory. The game was far from pretty, but a W is a W and led to some sour grapes from Bills coach Sean McDermott who said after the game, “Let’s not give more credit than we need to give Bill Belichick in this one.”

The rematch two weeks ago was a completely different game (not just because there wasn’t a ton of wind). The Bills came into the game looking to punch the Pats in the mouth with their aggressiveness and it worked beautifully. From aggressive play-calling to big plays when they needed them the most, the Bills took it to the Pats. The Bills converted 3 of 4 4th downs and trusted Josh Allen to make the right decisions and in this instance, he did with his arm and legs. The Bills got a massive game from virtually unknown WR Isaiah McKenzie while the Pats mostly shut down WR Stephon Diggs in the first half. To the Patriots credit, they fought back and didn’t give up, but were completely flustered on a picked-up unnecessary roughness penalty in the last minute of the first half that led to other penalties and likely took points off the board.

Prediction

Round three should be another thrilling chapter in the AFC East rivalry. Based on past success, I expect the Bills to come out on fire Saturday night with aggression as their mantra. It worked in their second match-up vs the Patriots and really put the Pats players back on their heals. I would be surprised if McDermont doesn’t try to score quickly and take chances on 3rd and 4th down throughout the game. On December 27th, WR Isaiah McKenzie caught the Pats off-guard while the secondary did a nice job on Diggs and TE Dawson Knox and I expect something similar will occur on Saturday, but with the other receiver options, mainly Emmanuel Sanders and/or Gabriel Davis. The Pats secondary depth is of definite concern right now and the Bills are smart enough to unleash Josh Allen to attack on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th levels. I also expect a fair amount of passes (mostly screen-type routes) to RB Devin Singletary to get the playmaker the ball in space and keep the defense off balance. If the Bills can exploit the Pats secondary, it could be a long night for the Pats.

On the other side, the Pats have some work to do this week to prepare in all three aspects of the game. The #1 issue they have had over the past month is mistakes. Between bad penalties, turnovers, and mistakes in coverage, the Pats have been uncharacteristically the sloppier team. In almost all of their losses this season, the Pats have been in contention with a chance to comeback or win, but there is usually at least one mistake you can point to after the game that prevented the W. The ability of the Pats offense to move the ball downfield with balance is key to keeping the Bills defense at bay. If the Pats get down early, it makes them more predictable and easier to play against. A balanced run/pass attack will allow Mac to make more comfortable reads with space and allow the offensive line to hopefully hold up a bit better. On the defensive side of the ball, they need to get pressure on Josh Allen and contain him. If they can get pressure on Allen, he will make mistakes eventually, but the inherent risk is that you flush him from the pocket and he takes off for a 20-yard run. When playing well, the Bills offensive weapons are near impossible to cover, but when Allen feels the pressure and is forced into quick decisions, he has a tendency to make mistakes.

When all is said and done, I think the Patriots squeak out a really intense, close game 27-24. In general, I think it’s a pick’em game that could go either way. The team with the most mistakes losses and has all offseason to wonder what-if. I think the Bills options on offense are so strong and deep for the weak Pats secondary to handle, but Allen will make one too many mistakes or McDermott take one too many chances on 4th down and allow Mac Jones to drive down field and win on a late K Nick Folk field goal. I don’t feel even a little confident in the prediction, but in a toss-up game I’m picking the Pats every time.

Is Wilkerson the Patriots Secret Weapon?

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After watching Patriots WR Kristian Wilkerson make some really nice grabs in the pre-season, it seemed that he might be in line to get some regular season playing time. The weeks passed as Wilkerson sat on the Patriots practice squad and didn’t get the call-up, even as WR N’Keal Harry struggled. Week 9 against the Panthers Wilkerson was activated, but didn’t see any action and then the same thing happened again last week against the Buffalo Bills. Finally, in week 17, we got to see Kristian not only get on the field, but show why he could be a key piece moving forward for the Pats.

Despite not playing much together in an NFL game in several months, the chemistry between Mac Jones and Wilkerson was evident against the Jaguars. Mac looked his way on 27% of this pass attempts (8), tied for the most targets in the game with WR Jakobi Meyers and was able to connect with him on 4 passes, including 2 TDs. He almost hit him for a big TD in the 2nd half, but the defender on Wilkerson hit his helmet breaking his concentration and the ball fell through his hands. For a receiver to get very few reps with the first team offense and then come out and have the performance he had against the Jaguars is impressive and makes you wonder what he could do with more time on the first team.

I understand it’s the Jaguars and they, well, aren’t good, but Wilkerson showed an ability to pull in some big catches and get some separation when needed. When you compare his performance with that of Sunday’s healthy-scratch WR N’Keal Harry, Wilkerson looked much more dangerous and able to make the crucial play. I’d much rather have Wilkerson on the field in almost any scenario. To Harry’s credit, his blocking has been his biggest asset this season, but when you need to gain yards and rely on a receiver to catch the ball, Harry has failed time and time again. If the Pats get a healthy WR Nelson Agholor back, the addition of Wilkerson actually make them a pretty deep group. With Meyers, Agholor, Bourne, and Wilkerson, they can move the ball around in lots of different ways and have different guys step up depending on coverage in the playoffs. When you add in TE Hunter Henry and RB Brandon Bolden as pass catchers, it’s a much more solid group with Wilkerson in the mix (TE Jonnu Smith intentionally left out).

After witnessing the performance of Wilkerson this week, there is now no excuse to continue to ride the painful-to-watch Harry week-in and week-out. Wilkerson gives you another dynamic piece you can integrate into the offense more thoroughly as the playoffs approach, now that a playoff berth has been locked-up. He’ll most likely match-up against a 3rd or 4th cornerback, which gives him a really good chance to make a handful of catches per game and maybe even be the primary target at times. On top of it all, he already has a deeper chemistry with Jones than Harry, so you certainly aren’t losing anything on that end.

With the high likelihood the Pats will play in a Wild Card game, having an additional x-factor will be huge in getting into the Divisional round. Even better, there is very little professional tape on Wilkerson, so it’s hard to fully scout him and understand all of his strengths and weaknesses. Now is the time to unleash another classic Bill Belichick undrafted free agent find, Kristian Wilkerson.

Revisiting the Cam Newton Decision for the Patriots

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

One of the biggest storylines during the preseason for the New England Patriots was about the QB position. The Pats had re-signed Cam Newton to a 1-year deal and also drafted the heir apparent, Mac Jones, at #15 overall. The question wasn’t if Mac would be the starter, but rather how soon he would be handed the reigns. The Pats obviously made the decision to go all-in on Mac and released Newton to the open market. It took 9 weeks, but Cam found himself back in Carolina as their starting QB after an injury to Sam Darnold.

In his first start with the Panthers less than a week after signing, he played just 9 snaps and had a significant impact. He completed 3 of his 4 passes, including a passing TD and a 14-yard rushing TD. After his first touchdown he yelled “I’m back!” and instantly became a meme magnet. In his first game back as a starter in Carolina, he lost to the Washington Football Team, but put up strong numbers (21 of 27 for 189 yards and 2 TDs as well as 10 rushes for 46 yards and a TD). It seemed like Cam was comfortable and had a chance to resurrect his career back where it started. Then, as quickly as it began, the tires began falling off.

Since his strong performance against the Football Team, Cam has plummeted back to earth and looked exactly as expected, if not worse. In his last 4 games, Cam has gone 45 of 95 (47.3%) with 1 TD and 5 INTs, with 3 rushing TDs and 4 fumbles. The “I’m back!” memes aren’t exactly aging well these days. Cam is clearly past his prime and there are very few people, if anyone, who still think Cam should have been the Pats starter this season, but with Mac’s recent struggles, it was worth checking in on the former Pats QB. For those jumping on the “Mac is over-rated train”, let’s see what Mac has been up to over the last 4 games.

Over his last 4 games, Mac has gone 65 for 112 (58%) with 773 yards and that includes the 3 throw wind-game in Buffalo (19 yards). This stretch of games has been fairly pedestrian and the worst of his young career with only 4 TDs and 4 INTs and a 2-2 record. Despite the struggles, Mac has been better than many other QBs in the NFL, including Newton. Mac has 286 more yards and 11% higher completion rate over that span.

I know it’s a bit unfair to compare the two when the teams around them are very different and the situations are very different, but it’s a kind reminder to Pats fans that even a mediocre performance from Mac Jones, is still miles ahead of the alternative this year. Rookie QBs will all go through struggles early in their careers, it’s one of the disadvantages of young talent, but overall, Mac has been stellar in his first year in the league. At 23 years old, Mac has amassed 3,313 passing yards, 18 TDs and 12 INTs in his first 15 games as a professional, including an impressive 67.2% completion percentage and 7.2 yards gained per pass attempt. Rookie or not, that’s an incredibly strong season thus far.

The standards are sky-high in New England and expectations are a deep playoff run or heads will roll. While I’d love to be surprised, I don’t think this team is talented enough for a deep postseason run in 2021, but it’s not because they have a rookie QB at the helm (hint: it’s the defense). One thing I can say with almost absolute certainty: if Cam was the QB instead of Mac, this team is not even in a position to think about the postseason. Take the good with the bad, but overall, life is still good in New England.

Patriots Put the League on Alert with Huge Win

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The start to the 2021 season for the New England Patriots was filled with optimism, but limited results. After falling to 2-4 following an OT loss to the Dallas Cowboys, it felt like Mac Jones and company were competing, but falling just short. Of their first 4 losses, only the Saints game was a 2 possession loss, the others were by 1pt, 2pts, and 6pts in OT. They were close, but couldn’t finish the job. Their only two wins were against far inferior opponents in the putrid New York Jets and Houston Texans, leading everyone to ask the question: Can the Patriots beat a decent, playoff-level team? Now, just 4 games later, the tides have turned and the Patriots look to be hitting their stride.

Of the Patriots 6 wins thus far in 2021, 4 were against far inferior opponents (Jets 2x, Texans, and the pre-Cam Newton Carolina Panthers). Those games make it difficult to judge a team, but 2 of the Patriots most recent wins were eye-openers. On Halloween, the Patriots went out to Los Angeles and pulled out a huge victory against the 4-3 (at the time) Chargers. At that point, it was the most complete game by the Pats, with a balance rush/pass attack and a defense that put pressure on the opponent and made just enough plays down the stretch. It was both a close win and a win over a high-quality opponent on the road. Then after their 3-score win over the Panthers, the Patriots had another chance to prove themselves against the Browns.

Both teams entered the game at 5-4 and were looking to make a statement. After 60 minutes of play, the Patriots made a massive statement of their strength with a 38pt victory and it didn’t even feel that close. The entire team played exceptionally well and made the Browns look like more like a 1-win team rather than a playoff contender. The Browns were without their star RB Nick Chubb due to testing positive for COVID, but even if they had a massive day from him in the lineup, the Browns would have still lost big. The Pats defense continued their trend of forcing turnovers with an INT (2nd in the NFL) and got plenty of pressure on the QB with 5 sacks on the day. As good as the defense was, the offense was the star of the game. Mac Jones had his best professional game throwing 19/23 for 198 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. His 82.6% completion percentage and QB rating of 142.1 were by far the best of his young career against a team with the most sacks in football.

The upcoming schedule for the Pats is the continuation of a tough stretch. After a tricky mid-level game on the road in Atlanta against the 4-5 Falcons, the Pats have to play the very tough 8-2 Tennessee Titans, and then have two games against the division-leading Buffalo Bills with a game against the Indianapolis Colts sandwiched between. How the Pats perform over the next 5 games will determine whether they are playoff contenders this year or just an improving team that has future promise. The latter outcome is not a bad one given their youth at QB, but expectations in New England are always very high and a playoff game or two in Jones’ rookie season would be tremendous.

I anticipate a solid 3-2 record over the next 5 games for the Pats, putting themselves in solid playoff contention on the other side at 9-6 with games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins to close out the year. Anything better than 3-2 will escalate the conversation around whether this team can make a deep run this year. The games against the Bills will be critical for the Pats to potentially win the AFC East and avoid playing on wild card weekend. The fact that I can even write about the playoffs after their 2-4 start with a rookie QB is a credit to the entire organization and their continued improvement.

Buckle your seat belt, because the remainder of the season should be wild.

Outside of Mac Jones, Rookie QBs are Struggling

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Heading into the draft this year there was a lot of attention on the top 5 QBs to come off the board. All 5 QBs came off the board in the top 15 picks, including the top 3 picks, and they were all considered to be potential franchise changers. Just 7 weeks into the season (6 games for the Jets and Jaguars), there have been some surprise performances from this group, mostly on the negative end of the spectrum. Of those 5 QBs, #1 Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), #2 Zach Wilson (BYU), #3 Trey Lance (North Dakota State), #11 Justin Fields (Ohio State), and #15 Mac Jones (Alabama), only Jones has over 1,500 yards passing and a completion percentage above 60%. It’s been a struggle for the other 4 higher-drafted QBs thus far in 2021.

Of the 5 QBs, 3 were handed the starting job in week 1 – Wilson, Lawrence and Jones. Fields has now been given the starting job in Chicago and has 5 starts, but appeared in all 7 games, while Lance has started just one game due to a Jimmy Garoppolo injury and appeared in 4 games. I’m putting Lance aside for this next bit because he hasn’t had enough time on the field to really be analyzed yet, although his 1 start and 3 other appearances left a lot to be desired.

Wilson, Lawrence, and Fields are a combined 4-13 when starting with 1 win each for Wilson and Lawrence and 2 for Fields, while Jones has led the Patriots to a 3-4 record on the young season. On the QB performance side, Wilson, Lawrence, and Fields all have more interceptions than TDs (combined 13 TDs compared to 23 INTs) with just 4 TDs for Wilson and 9 INTs, which is tied for the worst in the NFL. On the flip side of that group, Jones has a positive TD to INT ratio with 9 TDs and 6 INTs. While 6 INTs is still high, mistakes are expected with younger QBs, ideally they are outweighed by the positives.

To me, the most glaring difference amongst the group is in completion percentage and what that says about the QBs, their teams, and their maturity. Wilson, Lawrence, and Fields all have completion percentages between 57.3% and 59.7% which are well below the league average of 65.9% thus far, while Jones has the 4th highest completion percentage in the NFL this season at 70.4%, only behind Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson. Jones has shown veteran maturity when making decisions about when and where to throw and that’s reflected in his percentage, while the others have struggled a bit more with consistent decision making.

Because Wilson, Lawrence, and Fields are being asked to do more on the field than Jones, you would expect to see them throwing down field more often and completing fewer low-percentage passes than Jones, but the stats don’t bear that out. Wilson, Lawrence, and Fields are ranked #27, #29, and #31 in yards per attempt this season, while Jones is 8 spots ahead of the group at #19. Both Jones and Lawrence are averaging around 36 pass attempts per game, while the other 2 are at 30 or below. Jones is completing the shallow-to-mid passes at an incredibly high rate, while the others are not.

The other area I anticipated a bigger advantage for the other QBs over Jones is in the run game. Fields and Wilson especially showed off their athleticism in college and proved to be dual-threat QBs when needed. Thus far, no one in this group has earned a dual-threat crown despite being super athletic. Lawrence and Fields are averaging about 20 yards on the ground per game, while Jones has just over 6 yards per game and Wilson has just under 4 yards per game. None of them are exactly lighting it up on the ground just yet and I’d say it’s mostly a wash.

There are certainly other factors involved in the success of a young QB including offensive line protection, receivers to throw to, quality of the running game, etc, but it’s interesting to see that outside of Mac Jones, none of the rookie QBs are really matching expectations at this point. Jones came into the league the most polished and game ready, but the intangibles and athleticism of the other QBs in the class were expected to make them significantly better. Over time that may be the case, but through 7 weeks that narrative has failed to come to fruition.

To be fair to Wilson and Lawrence, their teams are terrible, which certainly doesn’t help them settle in and learn the NFL game, but most everyone expected more from them regardless. It is an extra long NFL season and it’ll be interesting to revisit the QB conversation when each of these players has had more experience under center. It will also be interesting to see if the 12-game college season vs a 17-game NFL season causes some deeper struggles in the last few games of the season.