matt barnes

Taking Out the 2022 Garbage – Red Sox Edition

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The best thing I can say about the 2022 Boston Red Sox season is that it’s over. This season has been a failure-to-launch, swervy dumpster-fire that was chock-full of underperformances and roster shortcomings. The worst part about the season? It was good enough to keep you thinking they had a chance to turn things around until late August/early September when in reality it was over before it started. In the end, the Sox were only 8 games out of a Wild Card spot and finished with 78-wins, 5th in AL East. On it’s surface, 78 wins puts them middle of the pack in the MLB in 2022, but with a $220+ million payroll, that’s the worst spot to be. It’s baseball’s version of purgatory: not bad enough to get a high draft pick while also being too low to make the postseason. Oh and just to add insult to injury, the Red Sox are once again above the luxury tax threshold in a lost season.

What I will remember most about this season is inconsistency, fundamental errors, injuries, and aggressive under-performances. The entire season was clouded from day one by a lack of an extension for Xander Bogaerts and no long-term deal in place for Rafael Devers. All of the headlines around opening day included the failures of ownership and management to get the deals done and led to a negative team vibe to begin the season. I don’t care how well you compartmentalize, the failed negotiations involving one (or two) of the most beloved members and leaders of the team is going to impact the play on the field. It’s even worse when every single press conference brings up the failed negotiations and the media ran stories constantly about the situation with Bogaerts and Devers.

Now that we can officially close the door on the past 6 months, it’s a good time to reflect on the year that wasn’t and look ahead a bit. Here are my 5 takeaways from 2022 with an eye towards 2023. Now we enter arguably the most important offseason for the Red Sox in a long time.

1. The Hottest Seat in Baseball

When Chaim Bloom took over the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer role, he said his goal is to “build as strong an organization as possible in all aspects so we can have sustained long-term success and so we can compete in championships year in and year out.” His first mission was to build up the farm system after Dave Dombrowski lit it on fire in pursuit of a championship (not complaining about the 2018 World Series title) and it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t had a tremendous impact in that area. The Red Sox were at, or near, the bottom in farm system rankings when he took over and in just a few short years (including a COVID-shortened season), they are now just looking up at the top 10 in 11th place. The main problem with building the farm system to this point? Not focusing on the MLB team enough.

Despite the effort to build the farm system, Bloom has failed to make any significant impact at the MLB level. He’s made a few nice moves along the way, but coming into the 2022 season everyone could see the massive shortcomings of the pitching staff. Bloom decided to pick up scrap-heap guys with a hope for some success later in the season and didn’t do what one in charge of a $200+ million payroll should do: sign top-tier free agents. He brought Trevor Story in later in the offseason after his market thinned out, but didn’t go and get the free agents they needed and certainly wasn’t aggressive in building the roster at the MLB level. Even worse, Bloom couldn’t make up his mind at the trade deadline and instead of making some trades to reset the luxury tax threshold, he balked and put himself and ownership in a terrible spot with no postseason baseball to fall back on.

If Bloom doesn’t completely rebuild the pitching staff, add some offensive reinforcement with the likes of JD Martinez probably gone, and re-sign Bogaerts, he’s likely without a job in 2023. Boston is a town with unreasonably high expectations and right now it’s being run like Bloom’s previous employer, Tampa Bay. I’ve been a supporter of Bloom since he signed in 2019, but my patience is rapidly running out and I’m not the only one. Do you think ownership will stand for another year of this mess? I don’t think so.

2. Goodbyes Aplenty

If you watched any of the final series against Tampa Bay at Fenway, you saw one goodbye after another. The end of the 2022 season seemed to mark the potential end of a number of Red Sox greats, both on the field and in the booth. The great Dennis Eckersley stepped away from the broadcast booth after 50 years in the game of baseball as a Hall of Fame player and, for my money, Hall of Fame broadcaster. His honest, unfiltered commentary in a language all his own was an absolute joy to listen to each and every night. There were always stories and self-deprecating comments about his career as a player and when Jerry Remy was in the booth with him, it was must-see. He brought an energy and a passion every night, even in a difficult season to watch like 2022. He rubbed people the wrong way sometimes with his straight-shooting commentary but no one loves the game more than Eck. To me, the story Will Middlebrooks told on Name Redacted Pod sums up who Eck is as a person. Middlebrooks said that Eck didn’t want to be honored on the field for his pending retirement because the last time he was on the field was to catch Jerry Remy‘s first pitch in the 2021 Wild Card game. He wanted that to be the last time he was on the field.

The other goodbye that feels pretty solid was to J.D. Martinez. The 34-year old will become a free agent after 5 years in Boston and it’s unlikely the Red Sox make a run at resigning him. The 5-year, $110 million contract he signed in February of 2018 goes down as one of the best in Red Sox history. En route to a World Series title in 2018, JD had one of the best seasons ever in a Red Sox uniform when he hit .330 with 43 HRs and 130 RBIs along with 37 doubles in 150 regular season games and added 15 hits, 3 HRs, and 14 RBIs in the postseason. He followed 2018 with another impressive season hitting .304 with 36 HRs and 105 RBIs and 33 doubles. What’s not to like about that production at the plate? Without JD in 2018, it’s unlikely that the Red Sox raise another banner at Fenway Park and for that, I’ll be forever grateful. Despite his power struggles this past season, JD broke his 2021 career best doubles number with 43 and went out on top, hitting 2 HRs in the season finale.

The 3rd goodbye is one I hope doesn’t come to fruition: Xander Bogaerts. When Alex Cora pulled him in the 7th inning of game 162 to allow the fans to appreciate his accomplishments in possibly his last game in Boston, it was emotional. In 2009, as a 16-year old kid, Xander was drafted by the Boston Red Sox and hasn’t looked back since. He made his MLB debut in August 2013 and despite playing in only 18 regular season games, was on the postseason roster, hitting .296 with 2 RBIs in 12 postseason games. Since that point, Xander has grown into a steady leader who has gained the respect of all his teammates. He’s amassed 1,408 hits and 156 HRs with the Red Sox, while hitting at a .291 clip. The 4x All-Star, 2x World Series Champion, and 4x Silver Slugger Award winner is as beloved by the fans equally as much as his teammates. The seemingly meaningless grand slam he hit in the penultimate game of the 2022 season felt like a farewell nod to fans, despite most, myself included, still holding out hope he returns. If offered a fair contract now, I hope that Xander will re-sign and stay a Red Sox for life but with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll probably wait until free agency opens where massive numbers begin flying around. Lots of teams will be chomping at the bit to sign a leader on the field and in the clubhouse.

On top of the big three potential departures, it’s likely that this Red Sox team will look completely different in 2023. We expect to be saying goodbyes the entire offseason as players are traded or leave via free agency. It may be a long, cold winter.

3. Catching Duo of the Future

When the Red Sox sent Christian Vazquez across the hall to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, it became clear there was a changing of the guard at the catcher position in Boston. Bloom called up oft-talked about prospect Connor Wong and traded for Reese McGuire to fill the slots before DFA’ing fan favorite and the co-inventor of the laundry cart celebration, Kevin Plawecki. With an entirely new catching tandem, the Red Sox were already turning the page on 2022 and thinking about the future. Wong is a 26-year old catcher who after a successful collegiate career with the University of Houston, has been working his way up through the minors, first with the Dodgers and then coming to Boston in the Mookie Betts trade (alongside Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs). Wong has been stuck behind the catching duo of Vazquez and Plawecki and now has a chance to show the Red Sox what he’s worth. In 27 games down the stretch, he hit .188 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs for the Red Sox, not exactly lighting the world on fire even though it was a small sample size.

While Wong’s call-up wasn’t a surprise, addition of Reese McGuire was a bit surprising. McGuire played in 141 games in 4 seasons with Toronto and his .248 with 9 HRs, then 53 games with the Chicago White Sox and hit .225 with 0 HRs, so naturally you expected him to hit .337 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs in 36 games with the Red Sox, right? It was a bright spot for the Red Sox down the stretch and it appears he may have earned himself a regular spot in the catching rotation going forward. It was nice to watch him have success but to say I have concerns going forward is an understatement. Was the 36-game sample representative of what he can and will do going forward or is it more likely an aberration? If he drops back to his low-.200s average with little to no power and Wong doesn’t turn it around, that’s a big drop-off from having Vazquez behind the dish each night.

I like both Wong and McGuire but having two light-hitting catchers who are only decent defensively as your tandem isn’t ideal. There was a lot of talk about Vazquez coming back to Boston next year as a free agent after he was traded, but with 10 other more pressing positions to address, I’d be surprised if the Red Sox open the wallet for him. I’ll be keeping my eye on what the Red Sox do going forward and see if they dabble in the catching market this offseason.

4. Pitching Health, or Lack-Thereof

Entering the 2022 season the pitching staff had a ton of question marks and frankly, it’s only worse today. The season began with an injured Chris Sale and an injured addition of James Paxton, both expected at the time to be gone for more than half of the season and ended up missing the entire season (basically). The Red Sox also took a flyer on Michael Wacha who was trying to revive his career after a few rough statistical seasons and Rich Hill who was 41-years old and the tank was mostly empty. Wacha excelled in Boston and will hopefully stick around while Hill was a rollercoaster ride. The opening day rotation was shaky at best, with Nathan Eovaldi as the ace, Nick Pivetta as the #2, followed by Tanner Houck, Wacha, and Hill.

The bullpen was/is even thinner. The opening day bullpen included Phillips Valdez, Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles, Ryan Brasier, and Hirosaku Sawamura, all six were either DFA’d or sent to the minors during the season and as a group, were terrible at points. The other three members of the bullpen were Matt Barnes who was struggling majorly until the final month of the season, Garrett Whitlock who is a stud in the ‘pen but ended up in the rotation as a mediocre starter for a bit, and Kutter Crawford who spent time in the rotation and was solid during the season. Before injuries and unexpected circumstances the bullpen was already in trouble. They injuries piled on and the thin bench was lit on fire and burned to the ground. It was a poor display of roster construction in 2022 that has now led to an even bigger job rebuilding going into 2023.

The bright spots of discovering John Schreiber as a more than viable late-inning guy, the return of late-inning Matt Barnes very late in the season, and the rise of Brayan Bello in the rotation helps when thinking about 2023. If Houck recovers well from the back surgery, he could return to a high-leverage role and if they keep Whitlock in the bullpen (which seems unlikely), I feel better about the bullpen in 2023 even though there are a LOT of roles to fill. The rotation on the other hand, is still a massive problem. To plan for 2023, you have to act as if Chris Sale will give you nothing because odds are he won’t pitch a ton. Who else is in the rotation other than Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta? Rich Hill, Eovaldi and Wacha are free agents. Hill is probably going to retire or leave, Eovaldi will cost a pretty penny to re-sign, and Wacha will hopefully re-sign here. Kutter Crawford showed some promise but the Sox are still missing top end arms. There are a ton of holes to fill, even if Whitlock goes back to the rotation. Who are the Red Sox starting in the #1 and #2 slots?

5. Stability in the NESN Booth

This season for NESN was an unpredictable revolving door of commentators in the booth. We saw fan favorites Kevin Youkilis and Kevin Millar take turns behind the mic as well as a plethora of combinations with Dave O’Brien, Dennis Eckersley, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Monaco, and Tony Massarotti. After the passing of Jerry Remy and the retirement of Eck, there has never been a more important time to have a stable booth going into 2023. Just like the Red Sox as a team, the NESN team needs to have steady voices you hear most nights and only mixing in a new person or two on occasion as a guest or fill-in.

After listening to all of them this year, my choice is clear: Mike Monaco and Will Middlebrooks with the occasional 3rd add-on or fill-in of Youk. Monaco’s energy and enthusiasm for the hometown team is contagious in a way not heard in Boston since the departure of Don Orsillo. He hangs on every pitch and knows how to call the big plays to get you excited. A perfect compliment to the play-by-play voice of Monaco is a player who lives and breathes the game of baseball: Middlebrooks. He got very few chances to show his stuff this year in that capacity, but thrived in his pre and post game work. I found myself engaged by his casual banter and knowledge of the game, as well as his ability to tell a story. He has the edge for me thanks also to the ease in which he has conversations and can fill dead air, which during slow or long games is critical (and what made Orsillo/Remy so fun to watch).

Youk is a close 2nd for color commentator for me, but I’m just not sure he’d ever commit to a full season schedule. I’d love to see him as the 3rd man in the booth when possible. He had a comforting presence and familiar voice along with plenty of stories from his playing days, albeit not quite as smooth and natural as Middlebrooks. He did have a significantly longer look than Middlebrooks, which makes me think it’s his job to turn down. Either way, my only hope is that NESN makes a decision rather than continuing the live auditions for another season. I can’t stand a season of 12 different booths without the voices of Orsillo, Remy, and Eck to hold it all together.

Are the Red Sox Giving Up on 2022?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

I’ve started to write something about this Red Sox team for nearly a month now and just couldn’t bring myself to finish a full thought. I wanted to find answers or see the silver lining, but frankly it’s becoming an incredibly difficult team to watch, root for, or understand. It began with the embarrassing fails of extension talks with Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts in Spring Training and the mood hasn’t improved from there. On the field, it’s been even worse. From the early season disaster that is 2/3 of the lineup to the surprising overachieving of the pitching staff that is now shooting back to earth, it feels like this team is both in contention for every game they play and at the same time finding new and creative ways to take the L. Every time it seems like maybe they are turning a corner, the door swings back and slams them in the face. Now 31 games into the 2022 season and 11.5 games back in the AL East, 2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles, some of the decision making appears as if Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox have given up on 2022 and are preparing for the future.

The early season offensive struggles overshadowed the strong performances from the pitching staff. At one point the Red Sox had one of the best bullpens in baseball statistically and were getting some solid starting pitching, but were losing low-scoring 1-run games thanks to the anemic lineup. Three of their starters (4 if you count Garrett Whitlock as a starter) have sub-3 ERAs and have started the season really strong. Arguably their #4 or #5 starter on opening day was Michael Wacha, who before his recent injury, was 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA allowing 4 earned runs and just 13 hits in 26 innings. Despite some shaky outings as of late, the Red Sox bullpen has actually been impressive on the season. Hansel Robles (2.70), Austin Davis (2.70), Ryan Brasier (2.45), Matt Strahm (2.70), Tyler Danish (2.35) all have sub-3 ERAs and have frankly overachieved. Thanks to the lack of offense, their outings have mostly been in high-pressure situations (1 or 2 run games), which is just not sustainable.

Lately, the glaring lack of a closer thanks to the Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock pitcher mismanagement has been a big problem. To be fair to Red Sox management, Houck didn’t exactly help the situation by not getting vaccinated and not being available for the Toronto series in Canada. Thanks to some starting depth and injury issues as well as his desire, the Red Sox are working to get Whitlock into a consistent starting role which leaves a massive hole on the back end of the bullpen that he could, and probably should, fill. If you know me at all, you know I love Matt Barnes, but at this point there is no reason he should be in the major league bullpen or throwing in major league games. Something is clearly wrong and continuing to send him out to the mound is certainly not helping. Not having your best arm, Whitlock, for clutch late game situations is proving to be a massive issue if the Red Sox plan to try and compete in 2022. If they are already looking forward to 2023, then the decision makes more sense.

The decision making around Tanner Houck is also incredibly confusing if you are trying to win in 2022. He was really strong to start the season as a rotation arm in 3 starts, then after the Toronto series when he was unavailable due to his vaccination status, it went downhill no thanks to his odd usage. He pitched out of the bullpen the day before the trip to Toronto and threw a solid 1.2 innings with 2 Ks in the loss to Tampa Bay. Then the day following the trip he pitched 3 innings (5th, 6th, and 7th) against the Orioles getting the win with 3 BBs and 4 Ks and then was not reinserted into the depleted rotation and not used until 5 games later. He came in as a reliever after a long layoff and gave up 7 runs in 3 innings against the Angels. After throwing 56 pitches, he started 3 days later and allowed 3 runs in 2.2 innings before being lifted after 39 pitches. The 25-year old came into this year as a starter and now the Red Sox can’t figure out what to do with him and are just throwing him into different situations seemingly at random. If they were looking toward success in 2022, they should be using him as a starter, especially when the rotation has as many injuries as it does. To push Houck aside a bit to get Whitlock starts doesn’t make sense in the short-term. I’m normally not a big “role” guy, but in this case, the Red Sox need to stop toying around with Houck and Whitlock and just make some decisions on roles.

I’ve spilled a lot of metaphorical ink in my rant about this team and I haven’t even touch the lineup yet. The offensive production is by far the most disappointing and embarrassing element of the 2022 Red Sox. After a strong offensive season in 2021, the Red Sox made a few moves that at very least should have kept the status quo of success, if not improve it. Swapping Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr.was a downgrade in the batters box, but the addition of Trevor Story at 2nd base was a big improvement in the everyday production. At least it should have been. As we sit here in mid-May, the Red Sox are averaging 3.45 runs per game, the 3rd worst in all of baseball only ahead of the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, and frankly that’s a bit inflated because they have scored 4.67 runs per game in their last 3 games thanks to dropping 9 runs on Tuesday. That’s a pretty stark contrast to their 4th best 5.14 runs per game last season and 4.87 runs per game in 2020. Looking even deeper, this is historically bad lineup production and the first time a Red Sox team has averaged under 4 runs per game since 2014 (3.91) and the lowest franchise mark since 1907. Yes, you read that right, the Red Sox team hasn’t scored under 3.5 runs per game since 1907 and that was the only year it happened since records started being kept in 1901.

Needless to say, there is room for improvement on offense. There have been occasional signs of life, but as fans we’re waiting for the big turn of momentum. Trevor Story finally hit his first HR of the season on Wednesday, which is a promising sign, but the Red Sox still couldn’t produce more than 3 runs and lost on a walkoff HR. Kike Hernandez is batting .161 on the season and frankly it looks even worse than the numbers and Bobby Dalbec is even worse sitting at .148 with 1 HR and 3 RBI in 28 games. It’s not just bad, it’s epically bad at this point and even if the offense turns it around and gets going, 9 games under-.500 is a massive hole to dig out from in the AL East. All this offseason there were questions about when Triston Casas gets his shot in the big leagues, but I’m not sure it’s even healthy for him to come up at this point. He’s probably better off in Worchester with a lineup that isn’t digging themselves a massive hole, at least until it’s clear that the season is over and they’re just playing for pride and 2023 (which is just around the corner).

With an eye towards 2023, this team has a lot of question marks, with Xander Bogaerts at the top of that list. We had hoped that this year would be a strong one and regardless of the future, Xander would help lead a deep run. If this season continues to roll downhill and it’s clear to management that Bogaerts is not likely to return next season, do the Red Sox trade him at the deadline to get some value back? After what seems like a completely demoralizing first stretch of the season, does that impact Bogaerts’ interest in signing in Boston long term? If Bogaerts leaves, what happens with Devers and his contract? I can’t believe I’m even suggesting it at this point, but 2022 seems to be a complete wash given the current play and the division. What is the future of this team and particularly the major pieces on this roster?

I would love to be proven wrong and everyday hope for the moment that turns the tides, but there is nothing right now to indicate that 2022 should be a focus and a massive winning streak is on it’s way. Underperformance is manageable in stretches, but 30+ games of it is debilitating. We’re approaching the 1/4 tent-pole on the season and so far, it’s just hard to watch and this team is hard to root for. I’m not sure I’m ready to throw in the 2022 towel just yet, but I’m getting pretty damn close.

Way-Too-Early Overreaction for Red Sox

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The first series of the year sets the tone for the season, sort of. It’s everyone’s first chance to see returning veterans, new free agent additions, and young talent getting their first taste of the big leagues. Everyone wants to put a ton of stock into the first series of the year (including me), but the Red Sox are notoriously meh early on. Last season, they got swept by the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park to open the year and they finished two wins from the World Series while the Orioles finished with 110 losses, 48 games back in the AL East. As a matter of fact, the Red Sox haven’t won an opening series since 2018 when they took 3/4 from the Tampa Bay Rays. All that aside, let’s join the masses and overreact to the first three games of the season.

Pitching Staff – B

Overall, while it wasn’t amazing, it wasn’t bad considering the opponent and location. The Red Sox staff allowed 13 runs in 27 innings against the Bronx bombers and mostly kept their offense away from big, runaway innings. In typical Yankees fashion, the majority of their runs came off the long ball and Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton mashed 4 combined in the series. Other than the length of starts, which is expected to be shorter this early in the season with a compressed Spring Training, the rotation gave them a chance to win every game. Nathan Eovaldi allowed 3 runs in 5 innings, Nick Pivetta allowed 4 runs in 5.2 innings, and Tanner Houck allowed 3 runs in 3.1 innings. On most nights when the Red Sox offense is humming, 4 or fewer runs from your starter will be enough to win if the bullpen can hold up.

The bullpen overall was very solid to start the season despite some early question marks heading into the year. In 13 innings pitched as a group, they allowed just 3 runs, only 1 earned while striking out 15. In the first month or two of the season, the bullpen takes on an even more important role and if they can get the type of contributions they’re getting from Matt Strahm, Kutter Crawford, and Hansel Robles, this team will have a real chance to compete for the division. Of that group, Crawford had the most action on the bases behind him, allowing 5 hits in 2 innings and 1 run, but was able to work out of jams. Despite taking the loss in his first appearance (and just 2nd appearance in the big leagues), he rebounded to get the win in Sunday’s finale.

The biggest story in the bullpen coming out of the series is Jake Diekman. When the signing happened in mid-March I thought it was a great move and he could be an important piece. The veteran had a rocky Spring Training and his appearance on opening day was not ideal (0.1 innings, 1 run, 1 BB), but was as clutch as can be on Sunday to secure the save and first win for the Red Sox. As a lefty, he faced righties Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton followed by Joey Gallo and struck out the side in a 1-run game in the Bronx. All three guys can absolutely crush the baseball and Judge and Stanton feast off of lefties to the tune of .274 with a HR every 12.5 at-bats and .291 with a HR every 12.1 at-bats respectively. Oh yeah, and not to be forgotten, even as a lefty, Gallo hits a HR every 13.2 at-bats against lefty pitchers. That’s an enormously impressive outing for Diekman and puts him in line to perhaps take on more closing duties if Matt Barnes can’t figure it out.

The last thing I’ll say about the pitching staff is that I was impressed with the staff’s ability to work out of jams. They gave up quite a few walks and hits to a potent lineup, but were able to strand 26 Yankees runners over 3 games. While I’d prefer fewer baserunners to begin with, that says a lot about the ability for these pitchers to step-up in clutch situations and make the big pitch. There will be a LOT of scenarios throughout the year where there are runners on and they need to limit the damage. So far, so good.

Offense – C-

It’s early and generally offenses take a bit to get going in cold weather climates, but the offensive performance this weekend left something to be desired. In each game, the Red Sox offense jumped on the starting pitcher for the Yankees in the first or second inning and hung a 2 or 3 on them. It was nice to see a strong start for the offense, but then it seemed like they would settle into a dormant stretch for innings at a time. I’ll give some credit where it’s due, the Yankees pitching staff made adjustments and was able to settle in as the game wore on, but the Red Sox offense didn’t exactly help themselves. There were quite a few short, low-quality at-bats in situations where working a pitchers pitch count would be hugely beneficial. They missed a lot of opportunities throughout the series, leaving 21 runners on base in 3 games and grounding into 4 double-plays. They relied a bit on the long-ball, scoring 5 of their 11 runs on HRs.

As I said in my season preview, if the offense can do what they did in 2021 and score 5+ runs per game, they will win most nights. In this series, they would have taken 2 out of 3 if they scored 5 runs in each game, the only loss would have been the 11-inning 6-5 loss in the opener. Instead, the team put up just 3.67 runs per game and fell short in 2 of 3. Like I said, it’s early and in the cold air in the northeast it can take a bit for bats to heat up, but I was hoping for just a little more from the offense in this opening series. If as a team they want to have success, they need to jump on pitchers like they have been early, but then keep applying the pressure. Getting a starter to throw 20+ pitches and give up a few runs in the first inning is great, but what crushes other teams is then forcing him to throw another 20+ in the second inning. Sustained pressure will make it extremely difficult for opposing pitchers to have success and will in turn force them into situations where mistakes happen and the opposing manager needs to dig into the bullpen earlier than expected.

The surprise bright spot early on is Alex Verdugo. It feels like he’s on a mission in 2022 to be the best player possible and has put in the work to get there. On top of a few really impressive defensive plays in left field, he’s hitting 5 for 11 (.455) to begin the season with a HR, 3 RBIs and 2 BBs. He’s locked in early and if he can sustain success throughout the season (obviously not at a .455 clip) then this lineup gets even more impressive and powerful than anticipated.

Defense – C+

A large investment this offseason was defense and so far its been just OK. The team came out of the gate with 2 errors on opening day, one for Nathan Eovaldi and one for Xander Bogaerts which was disappointing although neither from the new defensive additions. The other thing that frustrated me a bit, although completely explainable, was watching Christian Arroyo in right field on Sunday night. There were at least 2 plays that he couldn’t make that I think Jackie Bradley Jr. would have likely made that led to Yankees hits. While Jackie’s offense prohibits him from being in the lineup against the lefty starter, the defensive gap was glaring. The need for a 4th outfielder to round out the group that was talked about ad nauseum this offseason reared it’s head this weekend. While Arroyo is serviceable, a right-handed 4th outfielder to platoon with JBJ would have been useful.

On the positive end, Verdugo looked really solid in left with a few really nice diving plays and if his defense improves a bit over last year, that’s a bonus. I’m also excited about the addition of Trevor Story at second base, but we only saw him in 2 games due to a flu-like illness, so it’s a REALLY small sample size. Time will tell if the defense is really improved over 2021.

Are the Red Sox the ‘Surprise’ AL East Team?

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

As opening day is finally upon us, just slightly later than expected, it’s time to take a deeper look at the Boston Red Sox and the AL East landscape. For much of the shortened free agency period, it felt like the Red Sox were just taking a back seat while their AL East competitors improved, significantly in some cases. The Red Sox appeared to be content with their roster until on March 20th it was announced they had reached an agreement with SS/2B Trevor Story. The addition is a significant one and solidifies the shift to a focus on improved team defense this year, while also adding some nice pop to the lineup. Let’s take a look at the Red Sox, who I believe are closer to being competitive in the AL East than others believe.

Roster In:

OF Jackie Bradley Jr.

SS/2B Trevor Story (FA)

RP Jake Diekman (FA)

RP Matt Strahm (FA)

RP Tyler Danish (FA)

RP Kutter Crawford (From minors)

SP Michael Wacha (FA)

SP Rich Hill (FA)

SP James Paxton (FA – 60-day IL)

Roster Out:

OF Hunter Renfroe

UTIL Marwin Gonzalez

OF Danny Santana

SS Jose Iglesias

SP Eduardo Rodriguez

SP Garrett Richards

SP Martin Perez

RP Adam Ottavino

RP Matt Andriese

What stands out to me when looking at the roster ins and outs over this offseason is just how stable the Red Sox lineup remained. In terms of the lineup, their biggest weakness in 2021 was defense. As much as fans liked Hunter Renfroe with his burst of power and occasional diving play in center, by almost all metrics he was a terrible defender. He was so bad in fact, that despite leading the league with 16 OF assists, and hitting 31 HRs he was ranked 181st (2nd to last) in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2021 with a 2.4 and was ranked 172nd in defensive WAR with a -0.5 (i.e. an average defensive player would have been better defensively than he was). The addition of Jackie Bradley Jr. is surely a step down in offense, but that downgrade is compensated for by stellar defense. Jackie has the 24th highest active WAR in baseball and has proven in his career that despite being an extremely streaky hitter, his defense is consistently excellent and he’s a strong baserunner when he can find a way to get on.

In order to not see an offensive drop-off and continue to see defensive improvement this season, Chaim Bloom took a bold stance and signed SS/2B Trevor Story to a large contract. The addition immediately improves the defense at 2nd base (Story was 12th in defensive WAR in 2021) and adds a nice pop to the lineup offensively, not to mention legitimate speed on the bases. Story is a career .272 hitter with 158 HRs and 100 SBs in his 6 seasons with the Colorado Rockies (745 games). Even if there is a slight dip in production leaving the thin air of Denver, which I highly doubt will be significant, Story is coming to play in an almost perfectly-configured-for-his-swing Fenway Park for 81 games a season. No matter how you slice it, the defense and lineup improved over 2021.

The concern, as with most years in recent memory, is the pitching staff for the Red Sox. Do they have enough arms? Can the starting pitching compete with the other AL East lineups? Will Chris Sale ever be Chris Sale again? What does the backend of the bullpen look like? And so on.

There were some notable departures this offseason that definitely left a bit of a hole in the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez left for the Detroit Tigers in search of a change of scenery and despite my constant frustration with him, he occasionally had stretches of solid pitching for the Red Sox. The Red Sox lost some additional backend of the rotation depth in Martin Perez and with the injury to Chris Sale, the rotation looks mighty thin to begin the season. It’s shaping up to have Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill, with Garrett Whitlock in a multi-inning relief role or a rotation sub. Overall, Houck should be getting better in now his 2nd full season in the majors, Wacha is pretty similar to Martin Perez but with more upside and Rich Hill with his sub-4 career ERA as your #5 starter isn’t terrible. Not to mention that Chris Sale and James Paxton should be returning from injuries around mid-season. Call me naïve, but I think there is a potential for this rotation to be more than serviceable barring additional injuries with the offense this team puts out there each and every day. In general, this lineup should produce 5+ runs a game (5.12/game last season), so all you need from your pitching staff is to allow 5 or fewer runs and you’ll win most nights.

The other pitching area of concern is the bullpen. The absolute freefall of Matt Barnes last year became a glaring problem at the closer spot. Supposedly, he found a mechanical issue that is being corrected this spring and if that’s true and he returns to form, that solidifies the backend of the bullpen. Losing Adam Ottavino hurts, but the additions of Jake Diekman as a lefty and a more experienced Garrett Whitlock in a longer-relief role (for now), should be stable. Home grown Kutter Crawford (2017 Red Sox draft pick) has emerged in Spring Training and will have a shot in the majors after just a cup of coffee last year. The addition of free agents Tyler Danish and Matt Strahm are added to the returnees Josh Taylor, Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, Austin Davis and Phillips Valdez (to start the year). It’s hard to evaluate a bullpen without seeing them in action and in what roles they will be used, but I think the Red Sox have enough arms in the majors and AAA to mix-and-match a solid group. They have more lefty support than in the past and I believe Sawamura in his 2nd year with the Red Sox will be more comfortable and hopefully cut back on the walks while maintaining a 3ish ERA. He could become a high-leverage reliever for Alex Cora. I’m not sure as a group they are better than last year as of today, but I don’t think they got significantly worse.

Overall, I feel like the defense and lineup improved over 2021 while the starting rotation and bullpen still leave much to be desired. That being said, I genuinely believe there is enough talent in the pitching pool to match or potentially exceed last year’s production if you’re willing to be patient and wait for it all to settle out as the season wears on. There are some young arms (Houck, Whitlock, Crawford) who hopefully will take the next step in development this year and a few new veteran faces (Hill, Wacha, Diekman) to help them along. Yes, others in the league made splashy moves and got better, but I think the Red Sox methodically and somewhat under-the-radar got better (besides the splashy Story signing). They were 2 games from the World Series last year with a fairly similar roster, so there wasn’t the pressure for Bloom to blow it up and start over (like some other teams felt). He addressed the defense and 2nd base need and time will tell if his pitching additions were smart or a bust. If they turn out to be smart, I can’t rule out another nice playoff run in 2022. If they turn out to be busts, the offense will only carry this team so far and they may be fighting for the 3rd Wild Card come September.

AL East Prediction

  1. Toronto Blue Jays – 91-71
  2. Boston Red Sox – 88-74
  3. New York Yankees – 87-75
  4. Tampa Bay Rays – 86-76
  5. Baltimore Orioles – 60-102

Overall, I think this is finally the year the Blue Jays sit atop the AL East. They are stacked top-to-bottom and as long as they stay healthy, their offense can compete with anyone while their starting rotation continues to look daunting. I also believe that this is the season the Tampa Bay Rays fall back a bit. They have been overachieving for so long, eventually their small budget will begin to show and they will settle down in the division. Ultimately though, I think the top 4 in the division will be within 5-8 games of each other, so a win here or there in April or May could make the difference down the stretch. With a 3rd Wild Card this year, it could be a race for 3 or even 4 AL East teams to get into the playoffs. The only thing I know for certain? The Baltimore Orioles will be out of contention by the All-Star break (if not long before).

Red Sox Add Top Bullpen Arm

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

With free agency hitting it’s stride, the Red Sox have jumped into action by adding some much needed arms to the bullpen. After making a depth signing of L Matt Strahm to a 1-year deal on Sunday morning (according to Robert Murray of FanSided), Chaim Bloom made a bigger splash by signing one of the top arms on the market, L Jake Diekman, to a multi-year deal (reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). The 35-year old had a solid 2021 season, appearing in 67 games and finishing with a 3.86 ERA and 83 Ks. He was absolutely electric in 2020, finishing the shortened season with a 0.42 ERA and 31 Ks in 21.1 innings. He is consistently a big strikeout reliever, which should be music to Red Sox fans’ ears. It feels like it’s been a while since the Red Sox had a K-heavy lefty reliever who can hopefully pitch in late-game, high-leverage situations.

While nothing is guaranteed, it’s nice to see Bloom jump into the top of the reliever market and not just shop in the bargain bin. You can never have too many bullpen arms and to bring in a player who could potentially be a consistent late-game guy with high strikeout numbers is significant. If the Red Sox decide to keep Garrett Whitlock in the reliever role, the compliment of lefty Diekman and rightly Whitlock will really help in late-game matchup situations. While Diekman does not have a ton of experience as a closer per se, he ended last year with 7 saves and could be additional insurance in that role if Matt Barnes were to falter or land on the IL.

Diekman isn’t a slam dunk reliever (which are extremely rare), but he’s definitely one of the best available in free agency. If I were Bloom, I’d keep shopping for more arms, because, I’ll say it again, you can never have too many relievers.

Did the Mayor Just Save the Red Sox Season?

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

The Mayor of Ding Dong City aka 1B Travis Shaw sent Red Sox fans into hysteria on Monday afternoon in just his 2nd game since returning to the city he loves and that loves him. His 11th inning walk-off grand slam capped a odd few final innings of baseball and sent the scant Fenway crowd home happy in the series finale with the Texas Rangers. Forget the fact that the game should not have gone into extras to begin with and it was against one of the worst teams in baseball, it was a spark in a season currently lacking any electricity.

Along with thousands of others, I am desperately waiting for the moment in which members of this Red Sox team realize that they are still in playoff contention (somehow) and a shift in momentum and fortune could lead them to 92-94 wins and a wild card spot. There have been some signs lately of a potential turnaround, but as a group, they can’t seem to put it all together and return to the form they had the first 3.5 months of the season. Despite a number of frustrations including a blown save by P Matt Barnes and the need to comeback from 1-run down in the 10th to even force an 11th inning, the feel-good story of a walk-off grand slam from the newly acquired and infinitely struggling Shaw may be that kick they need.

Shaw was a beloved and universally respected member of the Red Sox during his 2 years with the club in 2015 and 2016. Teammates, media, and fans alike enjoyed his kind demeanor and when he was traded for P Tyler Thornburg in late 2016, it was a sad day. To make things worse, Thornburg had a 6.54 ERA in his time with the Red Sox only making 41 appearances over 2 years. Unfortunately for Shaw, after 2 good years with the Milwaukee Brewers, he hasn’t been able to get back on track and make any meaningful contribution in the majors. After 3 years in Milwaukee, Shaw spent a year with the Toronto Blue Jays before returning to the Brewers and being waived this past week.

No one expects Shaw to roll into Boston and be a huge difference maker that changes every game with his bat or defense. He was waived for a reason and was added mostly as an insurance/depth piece with the incredible struggles at 1B on the team, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contribute both on and off the field. Honestly, today’s grand slam was more than I expected from him in his return and it’s only game 2. If the Red Sox do make the postseason, Shaw certainly has the experience and success to help out (.278 with 1 HR in 41 PAs over 13 career postseason games) if he were to make the roster.

What will be interesting to watch is if Shaw can right-the-ship, so to speak, with the system, and in the city, he started his career. If he can finish the year strong, maybe he earns another major league deal and can steer his career back onto the highway (or at least a side road). At 31 years old his prime years may be over, but there is probably gas left in the tank. Maybe even the return of his power leading to an extension in Boston. One can dream, right?

Looking into the Red Sox Future

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Over the past 5 years, the Red Sox have had some great success drafting and developing young talent. Tonight is the 2016 MLB Amateur Draft and rather than attempt to analyze who the Red Sox might pick, let’s take a look at who they have picked over the past 5 years and see where they are now. Since there are 40 rounds, the focus will be narrowed to top part of the draft and any notable lower picks. For those who are already bored, at least take a look at the 2011 draft, it’s something special!

2011
Round 1
RHP Matt Barnes (UConn)
C Blake Swihart

Compensation Round A
LHP Henry Owens
OF Jackie Bradley Jr.

Rounds 2, 3, and 5 (in order)
OF Williams Jerez
C Jordan Weems
RHP Noe Ramirez
SS Mookie Betts

Round 9
3B Travis Shaw

Arguably the best draft of all time, by any team. Of the top 8 players selected, 6 have seen time with the Boston Red Sox this season (2 are back in AAA Pawtucket) and the other 2 are progressing with the AA Portland Sea Dogs. To prove the point even further, 5 of the top 12 picks are either everyday offensive players or frequent bullpen arms for the Red Sox in 2016, not including the 2 other pitchers in that group who have contributed at the big league level this year.

For those who are unfamiliar with how rare this draft truly was, take a look at the other drafts after this one for the Red Sox. There are usually 1-3 players who make the big leagues or who are waiting in the wings at AAA in a really good draft. This draft, thus far for the Red Sox, has produced 7 legitimate big league players, including a few picks that are on their way to becoming superstars.

2012
Round 1
SS Deven Marrero
LHP Brian Johnson

Compensation Round A
RHP Pat Light

Rounds 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (in order)
RHP Jamie Callahan
RHP Austin Maddox
RHP Ty Buttrey
RHP Mike Augliera
RHP Justin Haley

Another nice draft for the Red Sox. The top 3 players selected have all seen time in the big leagues, Deven Marrero and Brian Johnson in 2015 and Pat Light for one appearance in 2016. All 3 have the potential to be solid major league talents, whether the opportunity is in Boston or another city through trade. Depending on health and the Red Sox pitching situation, I can see Johnson and Light getting another shot in the big leagues in 2016. With Brock Holt out with concussion symptoms, I see Marrero being the next guy in line for an infield spot if another injury were to occur.

Of the next 5 players selected for the Red Sox, 4 are with the AA Portland Sea Dogs and only RHP Jamie Callahan (2nd round) is in advanced A Salem.

2013
Round 1
LHP Trey Ball

Rounds 2, 3, and 4 (in order)
RHP Teddy Stankiewicz
C John Denney
RHP Myles Smith

This draft is where it gets difficult for a non-minor league baseball scout to analyze. Most of the guys taken in this draft are still in A or advanced-A ball and stats at that level are hard to interpret. The 1 player from this draft who has climbed the organizational ladder quite quickly is RHP Teddy Stankiewicz, who is currently pitching for the AA Portland Sea Dogs (although his numbers would indicate a bit of a struggle at the AA level). LHP Trey Ball, the first round pick, is a name that is mentioned often in Red Sox circles, and despite some shaky numbers in the low minors, he has improved year over year. Just don’t expect to see any of these guys in the majors for a few years.

2014
Round 1
SS Michael Chavis
RHP Michael Kopech

Rounds 2, 3, and 4 (in order)
1B Sam Travis
RHP Jake Cosart
RHP Kevin McAvoy

Most of the top of this draft class is still with the A Greenville Drive. The one major exception is 1B Sam Travis who has shot up the Red Sox system since being drafted. He began the year in AAA Pawtucket, with many thinking an MLB call-up this year was not out of the question assuming an injury or two. Then disaster struck when Travis tore his ACL, which ended his season before it really got interesting. His meteoric rise was great to follow, but this set-back really hurts (no pun intended). Once the ACL heals and Travis is able to get back on the field in 2017, hopefully he can resume his great climb to the majors. If he can pick up where he left off, he’ll be in the majors before too long.

2015
Round 1
OF Andrew Benintendi

Rounds 3, 4, and 5 (in order)
C Austin Rei
CF Tate Matheny
CF Jagger Rusconi

It is way too early to properly assess this draft class as a whole, but 1 name that will be familiar to some is first round pick OF Andrew Benintendi. He was drafted out of Arkansas and has moved up to AA Portland this season. He is struggling a bit early on, but that’s to be expected from a 21-year old kid. The Red Sox have high hopes that Benintendi will be a great outfield talent in the future.