red sox

Taking Out the 2022 Garbage – Red Sox Edition

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The best thing I can say about the 2022 Boston Red Sox season is that it’s over. This season has been a failure-to-launch, swervy dumpster-fire that was chock-full of underperformances and roster shortcomings. The worst part about the season? It was good enough to keep you thinking they had a chance to turn things around until late August/early September when in reality it was over before it started. In the end, the Sox were only 8 games out of a Wild Card spot and finished with 78-wins, 5th in AL East. On it’s surface, 78 wins puts them middle of the pack in the MLB in 2022, but with a $220+ million payroll, that’s the worst spot to be. It’s baseball’s version of purgatory: not bad enough to get a high draft pick while also being too low to make the postseason. Oh and just to add insult to injury, the Red Sox are once again above the luxury tax threshold in a lost season.

What I will remember most about this season is inconsistency, fundamental errors, injuries, and aggressive under-performances. The entire season was clouded from day one by a lack of an extension for Xander Bogaerts and no long-term deal in place for Rafael Devers. All of the headlines around opening day included the failures of ownership and management to get the deals done and led to a negative team vibe to begin the season. I don’t care how well you compartmentalize, the failed negotiations involving one (or two) of the most beloved members and leaders of the team is going to impact the play on the field. It’s even worse when every single press conference brings up the failed negotiations and the media ran stories constantly about the situation with Bogaerts and Devers.

Now that we can officially close the door on the past 6 months, it’s a good time to reflect on the year that wasn’t and look ahead a bit. Here are my 5 takeaways from 2022 with an eye towards 2023. Now we enter arguably the most important offseason for the Red Sox in a long time.

1. The Hottest Seat in Baseball

When Chaim Bloom took over the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer role, he said his goal is to “build as strong an organization as possible in all aspects so we can have sustained long-term success and so we can compete in championships year in and year out.” His first mission was to build up the farm system after Dave Dombrowski lit it on fire in pursuit of a championship (not complaining about the 2018 World Series title) and it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t had a tremendous impact in that area. The Red Sox were at, or near, the bottom in farm system rankings when he took over and in just a few short years (including a COVID-shortened season), they are now just looking up at the top 10 in 11th place. The main problem with building the farm system to this point? Not focusing on the MLB team enough.

Despite the effort to build the farm system, Bloom has failed to make any significant impact at the MLB level. He’s made a few nice moves along the way, but coming into the 2022 season everyone could see the massive shortcomings of the pitching staff. Bloom decided to pick up scrap-heap guys with a hope for some success later in the season and didn’t do what one in charge of a $200+ million payroll should do: sign top-tier free agents. He brought Trevor Story in later in the offseason after his market thinned out, but didn’t go and get the free agents they needed and certainly wasn’t aggressive in building the roster at the MLB level. Even worse, Bloom couldn’t make up his mind at the trade deadline and instead of making some trades to reset the luxury tax threshold, he balked and put himself and ownership in a terrible spot with no postseason baseball to fall back on.

If Bloom doesn’t completely rebuild the pitching staff, add some offensive reinforcement with the likes of JD Martinez probably gone, and re-sign Bogaerts, he’s likely without a job in 2023. Boston is a town with unreasonably high expectations and right now it’s being run like Bloom’s previous employer, Tampa Bay. I’ve been a supporter of Bloom since he signed in 2019, but my patience is rapidly running out and I’m not the only one. Do you think ownership will stand for another year of this mess? I don’t think so.

2. Goodbyes Aplenty

If you watched any of the final series against Tampa Bay at Fenway, you saw one goodbye after another. The end of the 2022 season seemed to mark the potential end of a number of Red Sox greats, both on the field and in the booth. The great Dennis Eckersley stepped away from the broadcast booth after 50 years in the game of baseball as a Hall of Fame player and, for my money, Hall of Fame broadcaster. His honest, unfiltered commentary in a language all his own was an absolute joy to listen to each and every night. There were always stories and self-deprecating comments about his career as a player and when Jerry Remy was in the booth with him, it was must-see. He brought an energy and a passion every night, even in a difficult season to watch like 2022. He rubbed people the wrong way sometimes with his straight-shooting commentary but no one loves the game more than Eck. To me, the story Will Middlebrooks told on Name Redacted Pod sums up who Eck is as a person. Middlebrooks said that Eck didn’t want to be honored on the field for his pending retirement because the last time he was on the field was to catch Jerry Remy‘s first pitch in the 2021 Wild Card game. He wanted that to be the last time he was on the field.

The other goodbye that feels pretty solid was to J.D. Martinez. The 34-year old will become a free agent after 5 years in Boston and it’s unlikely the Red Sox make a run at resigning him. The 5-year, $110 million contract he signed in February of 2018 goes down as one of the best in Red Sox history. En route to a World Series title in 2018, JD had one of the best seasons ever in a Red Sox uniform when he hit .330 with 43 HRs and 130 RBIs along with 37 doubles in 150 regular season games and added 15 hits, 3 HRs, and 14 RBIs in the postseason. He followed 2018 with another impressive season hitting .304 with 36 HRs and 105 RBIs and 33 doubles. What’s not to like about that production at the plate? Without JD in 2018, it’s unlikely that the Red Sox raise another banner at Fenway Park and for that, I’ll be forever grateful. Despite his power struggles this past season, JD broke his 2021 career best doubles number with 43 and went out on top, hitting 2 HRs in the season finale.

The 3rd goodbye is one I hope doesn’t come to fruition: Xander Bogaerts. When Alex Cora pulled him in the 7th inning of game 162 to allow the fans to appreciate his accomplishments in possibly his last game in Boston, it was emotional. In 2009, as a 16-year old kid, Xander was drafted by the Boston Red Sox and hasn’t looked back since. He made his MLB debut in August 2013 and despite playing in only 18 regular season games, was on the postseason roster, hitting .296 with 2 RBIs in 12 postseason games. Since that point, Xander has grown into a steady leader who has gained the respect of all his teammates. He’s amassed 1,408 hits and 156 HRs with the Red Sox, while hitting at a .291 clip. The 4x All-Star, 2x World Series Champion, and 4x Silver Slugger Award winner is as beloved by the fans equally as much as his teammates. The seemingly meaningless grand slam he hit in the penultimate game of the 2022 season felt like a farewell nod to fans, despite most, myself included, still holding out hope he returns. If offered a fair contract now, I hope that Xander will re-sign and stay a Red Sox for life but with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll probably wait until free agency opens where massive numbers begin flying around. Lots of teams will be chomping at the bit to sign a leader on the field and in the clubhouse.

On top of the big three potential departures, it’s likely that this Red Sox team will look completely different in 2023. We expect to be saying goodbyes the entire offseason as players are traded or leave via free agency. It may be a long, cold winter.

3. Catching Duo of the Future

When the Red Sox sent Christian Vazquez across the hall to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, it became clear there was a changing of the guard at the catcher position in Boston. Bloom called up oft-talked about prospect Connor Wong and traded for Reese McGuire to fill the slots before DFA’ing fan favorite and the co-inventor of the laundry cart celebration, Kevin Plawecki. With an entirely new catching tandem, the Red Sox were already turning the page on 2022 and thinking about the future. Wong is a 26-year old catcher who after a successful collegiate career with the University of Houston, has been working his way up through the minors, first with the Dodgers and then coming to Boston in the Mookie Betts trade (alongside Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs). Wong has been stuck behind the catching duo of Vazquez and Plawecki and now has a chance to show the Red Sox what he’s worth. In 27 games down the stretch, he hit .188 with 1 HR and 7 RBIs for the Red Sox, not exactly lighting the world on fire even though it was a small sample size.

While Wong’s call-up wasn’t a surprise, addition of Reese McGuire was a bit surprising. McGuire played in 141 games in 4 seasons with Toronto and his .248 with 9 HRs, then 53 games with the Chicago White Sox and hit .225 with 0 HRs, so naturally you expected him to hit .337 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs in 36 games with the Red Sox, right? It was a bright spot for the Red Sox down the stretch and it appears he may have earned himself a regular spot in the catching rotation going forward. It was nice to watch him have success but to say I have concerns going forward is an understatement. Was the 36-game sample representative of what he can and will do going forward or is it more likely an aberration? If he drops back to his low-.200s average with little to no power and Wong doesn’t turn it around, that’s a big drop-off from having Vazquez behind the dish each night.

I like both Wong and McGuire but having two light-hitting catchers who are only decent defensively as your tandem isn’t ideal. There was a lot of talk about Vazquez coming back to Boston next year as a free agent after he was traded, but with 10 other more pressing positions to address, I’d be surprised if the Red Sox open the wallet for him. I’ll be keeping my eye on what the Red Sox do going forward and see if they dabble in the catching market this offseason.

4. Pitching Health, or Lack-Thereof

Entering the 2022 season the pitching staff had a ton of question marks and frankly, it’s only worse today. The season began with an injured Chris Sale and an injured addition of James Paxton, both expected at the time to be gone for more than half of the season and ended up missing the entire season (basically). The Red Sox also took a flyer on Michael Wacha who was trying to revive his career after a few rough statistical seasons and Rich Hill who was 41-years old and the tank was mostly empty. Wacha excelled in Boston and will hopefully stick around while Hill was a rollercoaster ride. The opening day rotation was shaky at best, with Nathan Eovaldi as the ace, Nick Pivetta as the #2, followed by Tanner Houck, Wacha, and Hill.

The bullpen was/is even thinner. The opening day bullpen included Phillips Valdez, Jake Diekman, Austin Davis, Hansel Robles, Ryan Brasier, and Hirosaku Sawamura, all six were either DFA’d or sent to the minors during the season and as a group, were terrible at points. The other three members of the bullpen were Matt Barnes who was struggling majorly until the final month of the season, Garrett Whitlock who is a stud in the ‘pen but ended up in the rotation as a mediocre starter for a bit, and Kutter Crawford who spent time in the rotation and was solid during the season. Before injuries and unexpected circumstances the bullpen was already in trouble. They injuries piled on and the thin bench was lit on fire and burned to the ground. It was a poor display of roster construction in 2022 that has now led to an even bigger job rebuilding going into 2023.

The bright spots of discovering John Schreiber as a more than viable late-inning guy, the return of late-inning Matt Barnes very late in the season, and the rise of Brayan Bello in the rotation helps when thinking about 2023. If Houck recovers well from the back surgery, he could return to a high-leverage role and if they keep Whitlock in the bullpen (which seems unlikely), I feel better about the bullpen in 2023 even though there are a LOT of roles to fill. The rotation on the other hand, is still a massive problem. To plan for 2023, you have to act as if Chris Sale will give you nothing because odds are he won’t pitch a ton. Who else is in the rotation other than Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta? Rich Hill, Eovaldi and Wacha are free agents. Hill is probably going to retire or leave, Eovaldi will cost a pretty penny to re-sign, and Wacha will hopefully re-sign here. Kutter Crawford showed some promise but the Sox are still missing top end arms. There are a ton of holes to fill, even if Whitlock goes back to the rotation. Who are the Red Sox starting in the #1 and #2 slots?

5. Stability in the NESN Booth

This season for NESN was an unpredictable revolving door of commentators in the booth. We saw fan favorites Kevin Youkilis and Kevin Millar take turns behind the mic as well as a plethora of combinations with Dave O’Brien, Dennis Eckersley, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Monaco, and Tony Massarotti. After the passing of Jerry Remy and the retirement of Eck, there has never been a more important time to have a stable booth going into 2023. Just like the Red Sox as a team, the NESN team needs to have steady voices you hear most nights and only mixing in a new person or two on occasion as a guest or fill-in.

After listening to all of them this year, my choice is clear: Mike Monaco and Will Middlebrooks with the occasional 3rd add-on or fill-in of Youk. Monaco’s energy and enthusiasm for the hometown team is contagious in a way not heard in Boston since the departure of Don Orsillo. He hangs on every pitch and knows how to call the big plays to get you excited. A perfect compliment to the play-by-play voice of Monaco is a player who lives and breathes the game of baseball: Middlebrooks. He got very few chances to show his stuff this year in that capacity, but thrived in his pre and post game work. I found myself engaged by his casual banter and knowledge of the game, as well as his ability to tell a story. He has the edge for me thanks also to the ease in which he has conversations and can fill dead air, which during slow or long games is critical (and what made Orsillo/Remy so fun to watch).

Youk is a close 2nd for color commentator for me, but I’m just not sure he’d ever commit to a full season schedule. I’d love to see him as the 3rd man in the booth when possible. He had a comforting presence and familiar voice along with plenty of stories from his playing days, albeit not quite as smooth and natural as Middlebrooks. He did have a significantly longer look than Middlebrooks, which makes me think it’s his job to turn down. Either way, my only hope is that NESN makes a decision rather than continuing the live auditions for another season. I can’t stand a season of 12 different booths without the voices of Orsillo, Remy, and Eck to hold it all together.

An Ode to Cooperstown

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

It’s been awhile since I’ve taken time to write, primarily because it’s been tough to watch baseball lately. The Red Sox are a dumpster-fire with a depleted lineup and thin pitching staff and there are only so many ways you can say that this season is not living up to the expectations (understatement of the year). While the Red Sox were finding new and innovative ways to be embarrassed, it was the perfect time to visit the center of the baseball universe: Cooperstown, NY. It had been a number of years since I had the privilege of visiting the hallowed halls of the museum and surrounding area and this year seemed like the perfect opportunity to be in town for my first ever induction weekend. With all the hype and anticipation I was prepared to be disappointed, but was in fact blown away with the entire weekend of events and the passion with which the sleepy, quaint town in upstate New York embraces their baseball history and welcomes tens of thousands of visitors.

Lake Otsego – Photo by Brian Phair

For those who don’t know, Cooperstown is set on the southern shore of Lake Otsego and has a quintessential New England town main street lined with little shops and restaurants. At 25 Main Street, in the heart of downtown, sits the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum which is located around the corner from where most believe baseball was invented. The 3-story building is jam packed with artifacts and tchotchkes from every era of baseball and everywhere you look, you’ll find a new piece of information with a different artifact. For Red Sox fans, there are tons of artifacts represented, everything from Bill Mueller’s bat when he hit 2 grand slams in a game in 2003 to the cleats Curt Schilling wore in the bloody sock game in 2004 to a bat used by Christian Vazquez in the 2018 World Series (the first bat made by the Cooperstown Bat Company to be used on the highest stage) to the original contract Babe Ruth signed with Boston in 1917, just to name a few. Whether you are knowledgeable in baseball history or just a casual fan, there is something for everyone throughout the winding floors of the museum.

Curt Schilling’s cleats from the bloody sock game in 2004 – Photo by Brian Phair

The buzz around town during induction weekend was incredible. The streets were lined with fans wearing jerseys, t-shirts and hats representing almost every single MLB franchise. Former players and hall of famers were signing autographs up and down Main Street (for a price) at the various sports memorabilia shops. As we walked onto Main Street for the first time on Saturday morning, one of the first people we saw was Pete Rose. While obviously not a Hall of Famer thanks to some, let’s just say poor decisions, Rose was taking advantage of the massive crowds to give out autographs and take pictures with fans. Throughout the weekend, former players and Hall of Famers were out and about taking in the atmosphere. There were obviously a ton of Red Sox fans in town to see David Ortiz get inducted into the Hall of Fame and as one might expect, the Dominican community came out in force.

While the weekend as a whole was amazing, the parade of Hall of Famers on Saturday evening was by far the highlight. Watching around 50 Hall of Fame players get paraded down Main Street in the back of pickup trucks was a sight to see. Everyone from 84-year old Juan Marichal to 51-year old Jim Thome had the chance to wave to the tens of thousands of fans waiting to catch a glimpse of their favorite players. Some of the players got off the trucks and signed autographs for fans, even on a hot an humid night. Cal Ripken Jr. was a signing superstar, going up and down the rows of fans signing while sweat was dripping off his head and face. Standing across the street from the Hall of Fame where the parade ended gave us the opportunity to chat and engage with Hall of Famers in an experience I will not soon forget. Being a few feet from Ken Griffey Jr, Trevor Hoffman, Pedro Martinez, Cal Ripken Jr, Jim Thome, and others was incredibly special and an experience you just can’t get anywhere else. Watching some of the greatest players of all time take moments to chat and engage with young fans reminded me how unique the sport of baseball is and how taking a step back to appreciate the beauty of the game is important.

Cal Ripken Jr. in the parade of Hall of Famers 2022 – Photo by Brian Phair

The induction ceremony on Sunday was an extraordinary experience filled with cheers for the inductees and boos for Commissioner Rob Manfred. Despite brutal heat and humidity and a threat of torrential thunderstorms, a crowd of 35,000 people were there to witness the induction of 7 new Hall of Famers: Bud Fowler, Minnie Minoso, Buck O’Neil, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, and David Ortiz. While the main reason I travelled to Cooperstown was see Big Papi’s induction, I learned more about the other 6 inductees throughout the weekend and I felt a sense of pride to be there supporting their induction as well. It was a deserving class of men who all had significant impacts of the game of baseball in every era of the game (1800s-today) and for most of them, this honor was a long time coming. A great example of the long wait was Gil Hodges, who had a really strong MLB career and played in 7 championships, winning 2, but is most known for being the manager of the 1969 Miracle Mets championship team. Until recently, managerial accomplishments didn’t factor into a person’s induction into the Hall of Fame and that was a barrier to his entry despite the achievement being worthy of recognition. Now, Hodges has taken his rightful place in Cooperstown.

Another great example is Jim Kaat. A pitcher who appeared in 25 different MLB seasons, Kaat always felt he was a good player, but not to the level of Hall of Fame. His steady and extremely long career ended in 1983, but he was never given proper recognition because there was always an emphasis on the numbers, not the longevity (although his numbers should be enough for him to be inducted). The 3-time all-star won 16 consecutive gold gloves as a pitcher and started 625 games (17th most all time). His 25 seasons in the game were the most ever by a pitcher when he retired, now 3rd behind Nolan Ryan (27) and Tommy John (26). After his playing career was over, Kaat coached and stayed connected to the game, becoming a broadcaster in the late 1990s and still continuing that work today. Kaat was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame through the Golden Era Committee, which looks at players who were not elected in their 15 years of eligibility and has a 16-person voting panel. Many around the game believe this honor is long overdue for someone so influential on the game of baseball. *Some might know Kaat for his recent hot-water when he called Nestor Cortes Jr “Nestor the Molester” on a broadcast in June 2022. He apologized and it was settled, but he received some unwanted headlines leading up to his induction.

Overall, I was incredibly impressed with the way the Hall of Fame handled the induction weekend (with the exception of needing more porta-potties at the ceremony). With the threat of weather in the forecast, they sped up the ceremony (despite it still being very long) and handled the crowds well. Regardless of whether you want to join in with the large crowds and pomp-and-circumstance of an induction weekend or just visit the sleepy town on another summer or fall weekend to see the Hall of Fame when it’s much quieter, you’ll be happy you made the trek. Despite the long ride from the Boston area, I’ll be planning my next trip to Cooperstown very soon.

David Ortiz during his Hall of Fame induction speech – Photo by Brian Phair

Red Sox Start Gauntlet Feeling Squeaky Clean

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

After a tremendous run of play against bad teams, the Red Sox entered a gauntlet stretch of their schedule. They have resurrected their season from 9-games under .500 to now 11 games over .500 in a short span of time thanks to a 20-4 record since June 1, but that’s only relevant if they can beat good and great teams in the next month. During this stretch that began on June 24th, the Sox play AL East opponents (except the 5th place Orioles) 20 times in 26 games, including a 17-straight game stretch wrapping around the break, all 3 AL East teams with at least 40 wins and 8+ games over .500 as of today. This is without a doubt a season defining place in their schedule and thus far, they’re putting on a show. They started off against the red hot 36-29 (at the time) Cleveland Guardians on the road and pulled out the brooms, sweeping the 3-game set. There isn’t a better way to start a tough patch in the schedule than to take care of business against a quality opponent on the road, but now comes the even bigger test.

Starting Monday, the Red Sox travel north of the border to take on the 40-32 Toronto Blue Jays. That alone would be a tough task for any team, but when you factor in those players who can’t travel to Canada thanks to their vaccination status, it becomes an even taller task. Tanner Houck has emerged as the Red Sox closer and has proven to be reliable in that role (6 for 6 in save opportunities), but will be unable to travel with the team and leaves a hole in the late-game bullpen for the Sox. Jarren Duran has finally had another chance at the highest level and has made it difficult for the Red Sox to take him out of the lineup as he’s hitting .327 and has accumulated 4 stolen bases in 13 games this year. His speed on the base-paths is a potential game-changer for the Sox, but for arguably one of the most important series of the season thus far, he’ll be watching on TV with Houck. On the minor-league side, Ryan Fitzgerald would seem like a good replacement for the Canada trip, but he is also unvaccinated and can’t travel. In a series that could very well be the difference in playoff seeding come October, the Red Sox are in a tight spot with roster management.

Moving on from Toronto, life only gets harder. The Sox will host the depleted but still tough Tampa Bay Rays for 3, then host the hottest team in baseball, the New York Yankees. The Yankees are having a historic start to the 2022 season despite getting no-hit by the Houston Astros this week. They are 53-20 as of Monday morning, on pace for 117/118 wins and are getting strong performances across their roster. If you’re looking for a silver lining as a Red Sox fan, the Yankees are just 4-4 in their last 8 games with 2 losses against the Astros, 1 against Tampa and 1 against Toronto. They have looked like they may be settling back to just being a great and elite team, rather than a historic one, although I’m not putting my money on a huge regression (maybe just a small one). As if we couldn’t get enough of the rivalry, the Red Sox then head to Yankee Stadium for a 3-game set after a 4-game set in Tampa against the Rays. Where the Red Sox sit at the All-Star break and how legitimate of a playoff contender they are, will in large part be shaped by Tampa and New York over the first 2 weeks of July.

After the All-Star break, things don’t really calm down until August and even then, just barely. The Sox play Toronto for 3 following the break, then the Guardians for 4 at Fenway, followed by a 3-game set with the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. Following a 3-game road set with the Houston Astros, the Red Sox have a small respite, playing 4 in Kansas City against the lowly Royals before a date with the 42-32 Atlanta Braves and then another 3-game set with the Yankees (with one game against the Orioles sandwiched between series). I don’t need to spell out the entire schedule for you, although I got pretty close, but just know it’s going to be a brutal next 4+ weeks for the Red Sox. If they can perform at a high level and beat elite opponents, the trade deadline becomes even more intriguing. What moves would the Sox be willing to make if they genuinely feel they can contend for a title? On the flip side, struggling against divisional opponents may make the trade deadline a much more low-key affair.

While sweeps are fantastic, to me this next stretch is about series wins and splits. Expecting this team to sweep opponents the caliber of the Yankees is a bit unrealistic, but taking 2 out of 3 or splitting a 4-game set is not unreasonable and would be very telling. The Sox are not likely to catch the Yankees at this point, but the focus should be on the 1st Wild Card spot and the path there is series wins, especially against their closest opponents in the standings (Toronto and Tampa Bay). If the Sox continue to win series and the Yankees were to significantly stumble, anything is possible if you hang tight. With the Red Sox potentially having some pitching reinforcements arriving back from injury in the next few weeks (Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock), things could continue to roll on into August and beyond. After spilling tons of metaphorical ink about the Red Sox woes the first 2 months of the season, things look quite different now for the home town team. Will we still feel optimistic in a few weeks?

Huge West Coast Swing for Red Sox

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

After splitting a short 2-game set with the Cincinnati Reds, the Red Sox said goodbye to the friendly confines of Fenway Park after a 7-game home stand and 13 of the last 16 at home. While the home stand had a few signs of life with 3 series wins (of their 4 total on the season), including a 4-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners, it ended with some disappointing results against the Baltimore Orioles and Reds. Now the Red Sox head off on a 10-game swing in California with hopes of an above-.500 record when they return to Boston. With the calendar flipped to June, the urgency to turn around the 2022 season has ratcheted up a notch and the next stretch of series will be a true tell on whether the season is salvageable. Where will the Sox be when they return home on June 14th? Let’s take a look.

After grabbing back a little momentum on Wednesday night in the 2nd game against the Reds, the Sox are now 24-27, 3 games under .500. Losing 4 of 7 against two mediocre teams to end the home stand really put a damper on what appeared to be a turning of the tides. Getting back to the .500 mark is proving to be a challenge for this group, despite having one of the top performing offenses in baseball. The Red Sox led baseball in average, slugging percentage, and OPS in May but saw their pitching staff show signs of concern. This was everyone’s concern in the offseason, a strong offense with a weak pitching staff, but the script was flipped in April. The lack of an actual closer since they moved Garrett Whitlock to the starting rotation has been an achilles heal for this team.

Looking at their opponents in California, the Red Sox should be able to take care of business and definitely win the road trip against 3 struggling teams. They play 3 against the 20-33 Oakland Athletics to begin the trip and anything less than a series win or sweep would be a massive disappointment. It’s still a hair too early to call this series a must-win, but it’s pretty damn close. The As are coming off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros in Oakland and 1-6 in their last 7 games. The Red Sox are facing 2 of the As best pitchers in games 2 and 3 in Paul Blackburn, who is a surprising 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA on the season and Frankie Montas, who has a tough 2-5 record, but a strong 3.20 ERA this season. Realistically, I see the Sox taking 2 out of 3.

The Sox then head to Los Angeles for a 4-game set with the Angels. They have been scuffling as of late, losing 8 of their last 10 and 7 straight, but have a 3-game set against the lowly 22-29 Philadelphia Phillies before facing the Sox. The Angels will have a chance to get themselves back on track and come into the Sox series with more confidence. It appears that the Shohei Ohtani will pitch in the Red Sox series, so that’s always a challenge, but frankly they have been underperforming as a team. If they continue to underperform, the Red Sox could do some damage. The Sox should at least split the series, but if they can find a way to win 3 of 4, that would be a huge momentum booster.

The Sox wrap up the trip with 3 in Seattle against the 22-29 Mariners. Another surprise disappointment, the Mariners have really struggled this season and the Red Sox have already done some damage against them with a 4-game sweep at Fenway earlier in May. For what it’s worth, the Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 and have a winning record at home (12-10), but it’s another series that the Red Sox should, and need to, win. A bright spot for the Mariners and someone the Red Sox will likely see, is starter Logan Gilbert. The 25-year old is 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA in 10 starts this season. He has 60Ks in 59 innings and has a WHIP of just a tick over 1. Offensively, 1B Ty France has been mashing the ball, hitting .347 with 7 HRs on the season in 229 plate appearances. This should be another series win, taking at least 2 out of 3.

Overall, the road trip consists of 2 very winnable series against the struggling As and Mariners bookending a split/winnable series against the struggling Angels. West Coast swings are always tough given the time zone changes and travel, but with a day off leading into the trip, there are no excuses. If the Red Sox want to remain in the 2022 competitive conversation, this trip needs to result in 6+ wins, 2 of 3 from the As and Mariners and at least a split with the Angels. If they can somehow squeak out 7 wins, then the Sox will come home to Boston with at least a .500 record for the first time all season. Is that too much to ask?

The End of the E-Rod Era for the Red Sox

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Despite efforts to re-sign the lefty, the Eduardo Rodriguez tenure with the Boston Red Sox is over. It’s reported that E-Rod received a 5-year, $77 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. The $15+ million per year contract makes some sense for the relatively young lefty who has been up and down over his career in Boston, but has shown promise throughout. It’s probably in E-Rod’s best interest to get a change of scenery and see if he can finally put it all together and be consistently a top-end rotation talent.

After a career year in 2019, E-Rod sat out 2020 with myocarditis which emerged following a COVID-19 diagnosis. Thankfully, he was able to get back on the mound in 2021 and once again showed some flashes of being a top-end rotation arm. He also continued his consistent inconsistency and ended the year with a 13-8 record and a 4.74 ERA. He was able to rebound after building his ERA up over 6 in June thanks to his final 5 appearances of the regular season in which he didn’t allow more than 2 earned runs.

After a tough first outing in the postseason, E-Rod bounced back and finished his career in Boston with 2 strong outings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros, striking out 13 and allowing 5 earned runs over 11 innings. He declined his $18.4 million option to stay with Boston for 2022 in order to try and get some long-term stability and that bet paid off. While the annual salary is $3 million less than his option, he is now guaranteed a really solid salary until age 33.

I’m happy for him given his health struggles in 2020. His future as an MLB player was hanging in the balance and it was a really great story to watch him rebound and turn in his second highest innings total and games total this past season. That being said, I’m not sure I would have paid $15.4 million per year for his level of inconsistency. I’m not going to dig in again, but if you’re curious on my feelings about E-Rod, I wrote this back in September. To me, he’s a middle to back-end of the rotation talent at this point and the Red Sox should be able to find a replacement.

The Red Sox are obviously in need of starting rotation help going into 2022 and have several decisions to make on whether to move certain pitchers into the rotation (i.e. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock). They reportedly had offered a multi-year deal to E-Rod, so I’m sure to some degree were waiting for this chip to fall. A quick resolution to the Eduardo Rodriguez situation will help them move on and pursue other opportunities.

Buenos Noches, Jerry!

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

On Sunday morning, word spread throughout Red Sox Nation that Jerry Remy had finally lost his battle with lung cancer. At his passing, my birthday buddy was just 10 days shy of his 69th birthday and in his 33rd season as a Red Sox broadcaster while battling his 7th recurrence with the terrible disease over 13 years. It was a challenging stretch for Remy, but the Massachusetts native was a fighter and tackled each reoccurrence head-on, even when things weren’t looking great. Remy love being the voice of the Red Sox and was a Bostonian through and through. He will be sorely missed.

After a few years playing for the California Angels, the Somerset, MA native was traded to the Red Sox in 1977. Growing up a Red Sox fan, the trade made Remy “ecstatic” and his play on the field benefited from the move as 1978 became one of his best seasons, including an All-star selection. The trade worked out pretty well for him beyond 1978 also, because he played a solid 7-seasons with the Red Sox and parlayed his fan-favorite persona into a 33-year broadcasting career for his hometown team. Once he was traded back home, he never looked back.

“I was ecstatic. How many people get a chance to come back home and play for the team that they grew up watching, adoring, and loving? I couldn’t believe I was going to be playing with guys like [Carl] Yastrzemski — he was my idol as a teenager — [Carlton] Fisk and [Jim] Rice, [Dwight] Evans, [Fred] Lynn, all those guys.”

Jerry Remy talking about his trade to the Red Sox in 1977

The past few days have resulted in countless people talking about Remy and his strong, positive presence. One of his broadcast partners and favorite people to banter with, Dennis Eckersley, recalled his favorite quality of Remy: his laugh. “Man, I loved his laugh. When he’d get rolling and couldn’t stop himself from laughing, you know? I tried like hell to get him to laugh just to hear it.” Another of his longtime broadcast partners and friends, Red Sox fan-favorite Don Orsillo, credited Remy as the one who “Showed me the right MLB way.” The messages are different, but all have a common theme: Remy was a respected, genuine and special human being.

The man most commonly know as RemDawg has left a deep legacy and a significant positive mark on a franchise that has had so many greats over the years. His voice will be forever linked with the Red Sox, having called the darker depths of the tail end of an 80+ year championship drought, triumphantly celebrating four world series titles, and contributing to numerous other critical moments over three decades on the microphone. His ability to tell stories and go off the rails in blowouts and his honest, straight forward analysis of a tough situation are unrivalled. His voice will truly be missed on the NESN telecasts.

Watching Remy get a standing ovation from a packed Fenway Park as he took a golf-cart ride around the stadium to throw out the first pitch of the 2021 AL Wild Card game was a moment I won’t forget. It felt reminiscent of the Ted Williams golf-cart ride at the 1999 All-Star Game, just a few years before the legend’s passing. It was a final hurrah for a man that devoted damn near his entire life to the Red Sox franchise and poured his heart and soul into his job.

To me, there is only one way to end the RemDawg era in Boston, by using the line he said hundreds, maybe thousands of times over his career when introducing the ability to watch the broadcast in Spanish. Buenos Noches, Jerry.

The End of an Improbable Run for the Red Sox

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The season is over for the Boston Red Sox, much later than nearly everyone predicted. An unreal, improbable deep postseason run was bonus baseball in a year following an absolute dud of a season in 2020. There are a lot of things to reflect on at this moment: defensive woes, offensive bi-polar production, a play here or there in the ALCS, but the thing that hurts the worst? This team never had a chance, but made us all believe a championship was possible.

Coming into the season, everyone expected a rebound for the Red Sox who were coming off of a 24-36 shortened-season last place finish in the AL East season. The general consensus was a .500 season was likely, somewhere around the 80-82 win threshold, missing a spot in the postseason. After an absolutely torrid first half of the season, expectations began to shift, but then reality hit and the Red Sox came back to earth. They needed every bit of 162 games to sneak into the postseason and and win their 92nd regular season game.

The playoffs began with a huge win over the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card at Fenway Park and it felt like that was a big accomplishment regardless of what came of the ALDS against the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays. After a tough first game offensively, the production began and the Red Sox won 3-straight games to send the Rays packing. Shockingly, the Red Sox were one of 4 teams still remaining in the postseason. Once again the Red Sox offense wasn’t good enough in a game one, but turned it on for games 2 and 3. Once the Red Sox won game 3, it felt like this team had a special quality and was peaking at the right time. The mentality was to win the next two at home and never have to return to Texas, but obviously that didn’t happen.

We all believed that despite the up-and-down season and the struggles offensively in the final week of the season when everything was hanging in the balance, in October this team could beat anyone. At times, they showed us that their offense was all-powerful and could hit anyone, at any time and then other times they made opposing pitchers look like Cy Young winners. We built ourselves up to believe that this team had an x-factor and was a runaway train barreling down the tracks with nothing that could stop the momentum. Just when we felt the magic and believed, this team showed us exactly what we saw down the stretch of the regular season: inconsistency and an inability to put anyone away. It was never gone, just took a short break.

This team was never good enough to win a championship, but I certainly believed they could and I know I’m not alone. The pitching staff was held together with glue and duct tape and Cora was able to squeeze every last ounce out of each person on the roster to even get to an ALCS game 6. This may be one of the greatest managerial performances of the last decade, but it will be overshadowed by not making the World Series. Alex Cora did what he could with the roster he had, and it wasn’t enough, but it was damn close.

The future is certainly bright in Boston. Several young players made significant contributions to this team and will only continue to improve next year and beyond. In 2022 the Red Sox will have one of their strongest rotations in a long time if everything shakes out as expected and the rookie arms continue to improve. The offense needs to fill a few holes and gain greater depth on the bench, but overall is pretty close to being great without much work. The defense needs to be a huge priority this offseason, because they handed opponents run after run this season with bad plays and errors.

There will be a lot of commentary this offseason on this team, some positive and some negative (and a lot of it from me), but despite feeling the hurt of a tough series loss, I wouldn’t trade this improbable run for anything. Just 114 days until pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers.

Postseason Fever Back for the Red Sox

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

The last few months for the Boston Red Sox have been filled with challenges, injuries, and underwhelming performances. Down the stretch, most every member of the offense had (or is having) a dry spell and the pitching staff has been a bit all over the map. The Red Sox season came down to game 162 and thanks to some timely hitting leading to a big comeback, postseason baseball is back in Boston. After the high of the win, reality sunk in that their triumphant return to the postseason would be shaped by a 1-game wild card showdown with none-other-than their bitter rivals, the New York Yankees.

As a Red Sox fan, last night’s AL Wild Card game was a thing of beauty. With a battle of the two staff aces, Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox, you knew runs would be at a premium. Thankfully, one of the slumping Red Sox bats, Xander Bogaerts, turned the page and crushed a 2-run HR in the 1st inning to give the Sox an early lead. Not to be forgotten was the Rafael Devers walk, battling back from a 1-2 count, in the at-bat before to keep the inning alive. When Xander hit the HR, his reaction said it all. I haven’t seen him that excited in a loonnnggg time and it absolutely set the tone for the entire game. Xander is generally a quiet leader who lead by example. Last night, he led by example, but was anything but quiet.

There were so many important performances and moments in this one game that there isn’t time to recap them all (and there are plenty of other places to get that coverage), but the thing that impressed me the most about last night was the players resilience and belief. It sounds cheesy, but every time the Red Sox got in a jam, or a pitcher gave up a run, the players seemed to rally behind each other and believe in each other. They limited damage and extended the lead when the Yankees put pressure on, which is something they struggled with most of September.

The best example of limiting damage and playing together was in the 6th inning right after Eovaldi was replaced by Ryan Brasier and Giancarlo Stanton crushed his 2nd ball off the monster in the game (despite what John Sterling thinks, they both went OFF the monster, not OVER). Alex Verdugo misplayed the carom angle (which to be fair is a near impossible read), but Kike Hernandez was there to back him up, got the ball quickly in to Bogaerts and X-man threw an absolutely perfectly placed laser to home where Kevin Plawecki beautifully tagged Aaron Judge to cut down the run.

If that play doesn’t happen, then the score is 3-2 with a runner in scoring position and just 1 out. Momentum, if not the lead, would likely have shifted to the New York dugout and the intensity, and pressure, would have risen. The Red Sox needed everyone to be alert and play their positions in perfect harmony and when they did that, they finally succeeded in the elusive area of defensive fundamentals. I’ve been harping on their lack of defensive consistency all year and the numbers show they are one of the worst defensive teams in baseball and frankly, I don’t fully understand why. They have some weaker spots on the field but for the most part, they have talented players who should be at least average at their positions. All can be forgiven if they turn the page in the postseason and play clean, smart baseball.

If the Red Sox are confident and can consistently hit, pitch pretty well, and play solid defense, they have the talent to make a deep run in the playoffs, but those are big ifs. They passed their first test on Tuesday, now they have an even bigger test upcoming with the 100 win Tampa Bay Rays.

And hey, if you’re a Yankees fan, don’t get too sad because there is still something to look forward to. On Valentines Day, February 14th 2022, pitchers and catchers report.

The Crazy AL Wild Card Race

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

From 3-way ties to AL East dominance, the AL Wild Card race is proving to be high drama in 2021. As it sits on the morning of September 17th, it is a a battle between the Toronto Blue Jays (82-64), the Boston Red Sox (83-65) and the New York Yankees (82-65, 0.5 games back), with the Oakland Athletics (79-67, 3 games back) and the Seattle Mariners (78-68, 4 games back) hoping for a slip from the teams above. With between 14-16 games remaining for every team, the final 2 weeks are absolute must-watch baseball every night.

As a Red Sox fan, it’s frustrating that the team is even in this position fighting for a playoff spot. Putting that aside, let’s take a closer look at the race, see what the next few weeks will look like for the 3 AL East teams, and make some predictions on the outcome.

Toronto Blue Jays

Playoff Odds: 84.0%

The Blue Jays have the 2nd best run differential in the AL and 4th best in the MLB this season. They have been on an absolute tear the last month or so, going 16-3 over their last 19 games, including an 8-game winning streak and a 4-game sweep of the New York Yankees about a week ago to make this race even more interesting. Their surge has been marked by tremendous offensive production. In the 15 games so far in September (13-2), the Blue Jays have scored fewer than 5 runs just twice, and have scored 10+ runs in 5 games. If they continue scoring at this same level, it will be incredibly hard to see them not getting one of the 2 wild card spots in 2 weeks. They will also be a very difficult out in the wild card game if they can continue to score in bunches.

Their schedule going forward isn’t terribly difficult, but has a few potential hurdles. They face the 64-83, 5th place in the AL Central Minnesota Twins 7 times in the final 16 games, including a 4-game set on the road at Target Field and a 3-game set to end the season at home against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. They do have 3 games at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay against the Rays and a huge 3-game set at home against the New York Yankees, but overall that’s a fairly light schedule for the highly potent Blue Jays offense. Overall, I think the remaining games are favorable for Toronto assuming they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat and not get swept by the Rays or Yankees. Their playoff odds have jumped a massive 42.5% in 30 days and it’s looking better and better for the team north of the border.

Boston Red Sox

Playoff Odds: 71%

The strange rollercoaster of a season continues in Boston. The most dominant and surprising team early on in the year is now in the mix to miss the playoffs all together with 2 weeks remaining. The Red Sox went from first place on July 30th to 8 games back tied for 2nd as of writing this, which is amazingly and improvement after spending 19 games in 3rd place in the end of August and into September. The September schedule for the Red Sox has been tough, with all but 3 of the 14 games against above .500 teams and the other 3 games were against Cleveland who are 71-73 and 2nd in the AL Central. The Red Sox went 8-6, which while not amazing, has kept them in the hunt for a wild card spot.

The good news for Red Sox fans is their schedule. They face the lowly Baltimore Orioles 6 times (3 at home, 3 on the road), the New York Mets 2 times at home, and the Washington Nationals for 3 on the road to end the season. The biggest three games in the middle are a homestand with the New York Yankees. If the Red Sox can win the majority of the games they are supposed to win against lesser opponents, they may have a chance to sink the Yankees chances with a series win at Fenway September 24-26. The Red Sox are 21-12 against their remaining opponents (they haven’t play the Nationals yet) and have the most favorable schedule of the 3 AL East teams fighting for the 2 wild card spots.

New York Yankees

Playoff Odds: 36.4%

After an incredibly hot August, the Yankees are struggling in a big way in September. In August the Yankees went 21-8 and climbed as close as 4 games back in the division race and 2 games up in the top wild card spot on August 27th. Now 15 games into September, the Yankees have fallen to 9 games back in the division and are 0.5 games back of even the 2nd wild card spot. According to Baseball Reference, over the last 30 days the Yankees playoff odds have dropped 12%, which is a tough spot to be in with 2 weeks remaining. That being said, if they get hot and start rolling, they have a reasonable shot at the 2nd wild card position and even the top spot if Toronto and Boston falter.

The upcoming schedule is really tough for the Yankees. On one hand, they have the opportunity to face the Blue Jays and Red Sox head-to-head which could change the race dramatically, but on the other hand, they finish the season with 6 of 9 on the road and all 9 against teams in the division fighting for a playoff spot. This season, the Yankees have been outscored in games on the road (322-321) despite a 41-34 record and more importantly, they are 19-29 against the Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox combined. If the Yankees want to put themselves in a better position, they need to take care of business at home against the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers over the next 6 games. Both teams are under .500, although Cleveland just barely, and the Yankees have gone 6-2 against the 2 clubs so far this season. The wild card will likely be decided in games 154-159 on the road in Boston and Toronto.

Prediction

  • 1st Wild Card – Toronto Blue Jays
  • 2nd Wild Card – Boston Red Sox
  • Wild Card winner – Toronto Blue Jays

While I think this will be a battle until the bitter end, the Blue Jays and Red Sox have the advantage going into the final few weeks. The Yankees are more than capable of making a run and stealing a spot from one of the 2 teams, but the way they have been playing and their schedule will make it a tough task. When it comes to the actual Wild Card game, I give the advantage to the Blue Jays regardless of location, but an even more significant advantage if they are playing in the Rogers Centre. If the game were to be at Fenway, it would be a closer call for me, but I always favor the hotter team and it’s hard to find a team with more momentum (as of today) than the Blue Jays. With all that said, a LOT can happen in two weeks of baseball and the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners are not going to sit back and watch the battle in front of them passively.

*All playoff odds are from Baseball Reference.

Is Eduardo Rodriguez a Front End Starter?

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

Before every season when making predictions about the upcoming Red Sox campaign, I tell myself that this is the year Eduardo Rodriguez will live up to his potential and become the #2 starter the team desperately needs. And most every year around September, I look back and contemplate what went wrong with my prediction. To me, a #2 starter is a really strong pitcher who gives the team a chance to win every 5th day with only an occasional hiccup or rough patch. E-Rod has stretches of dominance that are bookended by duds and disappointing streaks.

After a rough year in 2020, where a complication from COVID forced E-Rod to sit out the year with a heart issue, myocarditis, he came into 2021 with a lot of promise and hope. In both 2018 and 2019, E-Rod had a solid ERA in the upper 3s (3.82 in 2018 and 3.81 in 2019) and finally broke the 200 inning mark in 2019 for the first time in his career. Prior to 2019, E-Rod had never started more than 24 games in a season due to injuries. In 2018 alone, he began the season on the DL after knee surgery, then a few months after being activated, landed back on the DL with an ankle sprain in July and didn’t return until September.

In between injuries, E-Rod has had masterful stretches of pitching. Between May 5th and June 17th 2018, E-Rod had 9 straight starts that lasted at least 5 innings and he went 8-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 61 Ks to just 13 BBs. His batting average against was a stingy .239 and he gave the team a chance to win in every single appearance. Just a few weeks later, the 3 starts prior to his 2nd DL stint of the year, he didn’t allow a run, going at least 5.1 innings in all three games. That is what you want out of a #2 starter.

This season has had stretches of strong pitching from E-Rod followed by unexplained struggles. After a 4-0 April with a 3.52 ERA and a .209 opponent batting average, he went 1-4 in May with a 7.28 ERA and a .360 opponent batting average. Then in June he went 1-0, but had a 6.23 ERA and didn’t even reach the 5th inning in 2 of his 5 starts. Not to belabor the point, but then in July, he had an improved ERA thanks to 2 shutout performances of 6 and 5.2 innings, followed by a 6-run 3.1 inning stinker against the Toronto Blue Jays to end the month. On any given day, you don’t know which E-Rod will show up.

It’s getting harder to see E-Rod as an option for the #2 spot in the rotation on a contending team going forward. He has the ability to perform at an incredibly high level, albeit not getting past the 6th inning in most cases. Since July 1, he has 5 appearances where he went at least 5 innings and allowed 0 runs, but has also had 6 outings in 2021 where he allowed 5+ runs. The inconsistency is the only constant with E-Rod and it’s frustrating to watch him continually not reach the level I feel he can reach.

E-Rod is still an asset to the Red Sox, especially if he can stay healthy and start 30+ times a year, but I can’t consider him a front-end starter anymore. He’s pitching more like a #4 or #5 starter on a contending team, with some great surprise performances followed by some less-than-stellar games. As of today, he has the highest ERA of any regular starter on the Red Sox, which is hard to swallow when you consider what the rotation looks like.

I suppose it’s finally time to temper my expectations and not expect E-Rod to be a front-line starter.