rhamondre stevenson

Taking Stock of the Pats After 3 Weeks

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Now that we’re 3 weeks into the NFL season, it’s a good time to take a deeper dive into the 2023 New England Patriots and where they have surprised us, good and bad. The Pats leave week 3 with a 1-2 record and already sit 2 games back in the AFC East. On one hand, that’s definitely not the start most fans had hoped for and puts them behind the 8-ball when it comes to playoff hopes very early in the season but on the other hand, they had to face last year’s NFC Superbowl representative Philadelphia Eagles in week 1 and division rival Miami Dolphins in week 2, who look to be an early season Superbowl favorite with their high-powered offense. A loss is a loss but the Pats were one play away from winning both of those matchups which is a bit encouraging. Lets dig a little deeper.

I’ll start with the defense because it’s a much less painful review. Overall, the Pats D has held opponents to the 7th lowest completion percentage, which given 2 of the 3 QBs they have faced is very solid. They’ve allowed a bit more on the ground, the 12th fewest rush yards allowed, but overall holding the Eagles to 25 pts, the Dolphins to their season low of 24 pts, and the Jets to 10 pts should have been enough to win potentially all 3 contests. Matthew Judon looked good in the first 2 games but came alive against the Jets tallying 2 sacks, 4 tackles and a safety. Despite being incredibly thin thanks to injuries in the secondary, the Pats have held their own thanks in large part to Christian Gonzalez. The rookie has come into the league and has impressed a lot of people with his ability to cover top guys and already has an impressive INT to his name. He was forced to play the Jets #1 weapon in Garrett Wilson in week 3 and absolutely shut him down. Not many rookies could compete at this level this quickly. If they can get at least 2 of the Jones’ back soon, the secondary should be able to matchup decently well with most other teams.

Where to begin on the offensive side of the ball. The o-line has been mediocre at best and that may be too kind. Despite their individual size, the offensive line is thinner than a piece of paper. Injuries and lack of depth have led to a dumpster fire at times trying to protect Mac Jones and block for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. The Pats have two great weapons in the run game and it feels like most runs get shut down after a yard or two thanks to a missed or poor block from the line. If Mac doesn’t have time to throw, it makes it pretty damn hard to move the down the field. I’m sure Andrew Van Genkel is going to be a really solid NFL player, but the Pats made him look like the next coming of Julius Peppers with how easily he was able to get past the pathetic offensive line in week 2. Case in point, on both late 4th quarter drives for the Pats within 1-score against the Eagles and Dolphins, a Mac sack thanks to a blown line block put the offense behind the chains and made it significantly harder for him to put a sustained drive together. Fortunately, they got Trent Brown back in week 3 and will hopefully continue to get healthier as the season wears on but I’m just not sure a fully healthy group is good enough.

The most confusing part of this offense is the receiving core. Juju Smith-Schuster looks like he shouldn’t be on the field with what appears to be a knee issue. Every route he needs to run that requires a cut is absolutely awful and leads to too many seemingly errant throws from Mac. When rewatching Juju’s targets, in almost every case Mac is putting the ball where a healthy receiver who can make the cuts should be, especially a healthy Juju. The fact they even look his way at this point is baffling. Demario Douglas looks like a guy with potential, but an early season fumble and a few shaker moments seem to have put him in the doghouse. Kendrick Bourne and Devante Parker each have moments but can’t seem to consistently get open and be reliable targets. The tight ends are the key to this offense in my opinion, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki being solid pass catchers with potential to gain a few yards after catch and the odd emergence of Pharoah Brown against the Jets with a few big time catches and one really nice TD run. As long as the receiving core looks like it does now, there should be 15-20 plays for 5-15 yards to the tight ends as much as possible. Put two or even three on the field and make opponents guard all of them with smaller corners or slower linebacker.

My biggest issues with this team in general after 3 weeks are penalties and turnovers. The Pats are -2 in turnover differential on the season which is a recipe for close losses. Not surprisingly, the Pats had a negative turnover differential in their 2 losses and a 0 turnover differential in their only win. When losing the differential, NFL teams only win around 30% of the time. Additionally, the Pats have been committing lots of dumb mental-mistake penalties. Thus far this season, the Pats are averaging 6 penalties a game accounting for 46 yards lost. While it’s not horrible, when you’re playing in close 1-score games every week, discipline can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Overall, I don’t think anyone is happy with 1-2 thus far, but not everything is doom and gloom. More discipline and some much needed health at certain positions could put the Pats back where many expected them to be, a .500 to slightly better team with borderline playoff aspirations. In the AFC East, it’s going to be a grind all season and dropping close games won’t make life any easier when we start seriously talking playoffs. What is the Pats reward for getting through week 3? A date with the 2-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas coming off a bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It’s not going to be easy for the Pats to get back to .500 next week.

Will the Patriots Run-Game Get on Track Against the Dallas Cowboys?

/ Brian Phair / 1 Comment

One of the biggest frustrations of the 2021 season thus far for the New England Patriots has been the complete lack of a run game. In the pre-season, there was an embarrassment of riches at the RB position with 6 guys having a legitimate chance to make the roster and contribute. It was clear that Damien Harris was the lead back and James White would definitely have a roster spot as a receiving back, but after them there was rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, J.J. Taylor, Brandon Bolden, and Sony Michel who were all solid RBs. The once deep and exciting group, has turned into a thin and disappointing one really quickly.

Seeing that there was not room on the roster for 6 RBs, Bill Belichick sent Sony Michel out west to the Los Angeles Rams the day prior to their 3rd and final pre-season game. It became clear that Bill wanted to give an opportunity for the others in the group to take some snaps and Stevenson and Taylor had both had some nice runs in the pre-season, so he hedged and traded Michel which at the time made sense. The season started off solidly on the ground for the Patriots, with a 23-carry, 100-yard performance from Harris in the 1-pt loss to the Miami Dolphins (30 carries as a team – White 4, Jonnu Smith 1, Bolden 1, and Stevenson 1). There was an unfortunate late-game fumble from Harris that clouded his performance, but overall it was solid.

Facing the Jets in week 2, the Patriots had a decent game on the ground with Harris rushing 16 times for 62-yards and White picking up 20-yards on 5 carries. The workload was lighter, only 24 carries as a team, but the balance was still as expected with Harris leading the group. Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints is where things went bad and in a hurry. Against the 4th best run-defense in football, the Patriots weren’t able to get the much going on the ground, partially because they were trailing the entire game. The leading rusher in the game was Mac Jones, with 28-yards on 6 carries and Harris only had 14-yards on 6 carries (2.3 yards per carry). Bolden had 3 rushes for -1-yard and Taylor and White had 1 rush each. Unfortunately for the Pats, James White was carted off the field and his season was over with a hip injury.

Coming off the White injury, the Patriots had the most anticipated regular season game in history against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs and the run game was absolutely atrocious. As a team, the Pats had -1-yard for the game, with the only positive rush coming from WR Nelson Agholor for 4-yards. They only attempted 8 rushes and were absolutely crushed on 7 of the 8. When your team has 6 rushes from 3 RBs that amount to -4-yards, you’ve had a miserable day. Good thing for the Pats, their opponent in week 5, the Houston Texans, would be easier to run on.

The Pats began to right the run-game ship this past Sunday against a mediocre Texans defense. J.J Taylor was inactive, but the Pats rushed 30 times for 136 yards, 25 attempts from Harris and Stevenson. While they still didn’t look great and Harris had another fumble, they took advantage of the Texans who have allowed the 7th most rushing yards to opponents on the season. In a bizarrely close and uncomfortable game, the Pats snuck out of Texas with a 3pt victory on a walk-off Nick Folk field goal, but no one felt good about the performance. During the game, Harris sustained a rib injury and has barely practiced (as of Thursday).

If Harris is inactive or limited, the Patriots enter the game against Dallas extremely thin at RB. Stevenson would presumably pick up the slack for Harris, but then it’s really only Brandon Bolden left on the depth chart. J.J. Taylor was played very little and it’s unclear why (besides his fumble), but could be an option just in case. The once 6-deep running back core is down to 3 or maybe 4 and isn’t going to have an easy time running on the Cowboys who have allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards against this year. Oh yeah, and the Patriots are still without 3 of their 5 offensive linemen due to injuries and COVID-related absences.

If I were a betting man, I’m not taking the Patriots run game to turn it around this week. They have struggled mightily against strong run-defenses and at best, their lead RB will not be 100% with a rib injury that I imagine will hurt every time he gets hit and at worst, he won’t play. Harris and Stevenson have 3 combined fumbles in 5 games, which is not what the Patriots, or any team, want to see. This game could be a big opportunity for Stevenson to show he can be a lead back going forward, but it will not be easy. I’m predicting fewer than 70 yards on the ground this week, so Mac Jones has to be ready to throw 40+ times if the Pats want to have a chance to topple the 4-1 Cowboys.