Are the Red Sox the ‘Surprise’ AL East Team?

As opening day is finally upon us, just slightly later than expected, it’s time to take a deeper look at the Boston Red Sox and the AL East landscape. For much of the shortened free agency period, it felt like the Red Sox were just taking a back seat while their AL East competitors improved, significantly in some cases. The Red Sox appeared to be content with their roster until on March 20th it was announced they had reached an agreement with SS/2B Trevor Story. The addition is a significant one and solidifies the shift to a focus on improved team defense this year, while also adding some nice pop to the lineup. Let’s take a look at the Red Sox, who I believe are closer to being competitive in the AL East than others believe.

Roster In:

OF Jackie Bradley Jr.

SS/2B Trevor Story (FA)

RP Jake Diekman (FA)

RP Matt Strahm (FA)

RP Tyler Danish (FA)

RP Kutter Crawford (From minors)

SP Michael Wacha (FA)

SP Rich Hill (FA)

SP James Paxton (FA – 60-day IL)

Roster Out:

OF Hunter Renfroe

UTIL Marwin Gonzalez

OF Danny Santana

SS Jose Iglesias

SP Eduardo Rodriguez

SP Garrett Richards

SP Martin Perez

RP Adam Ottavino

RP Matt Andriese

What stands out to me when looking at the roster ins and outs over this offseason is just how stable the Red Sox lineup remained. In terms of the lineup, their biggest weakness in 2021 was defense. As much as fans liked Hunter Renfroe with his burst of power and occasional diving play in center, by almost all metrics he was a terrible defender. He was so bad in fact, that despite leading the league with 16 OF assists, and hitting 31 HRs he was ranked 181st (2nd to last) in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2021 with a 2.4 and was ranked 172nd in defensive WAR with a -0.5 (i.e. an average defensive player would have been better defensively than he was). The addition of Jackie Bradley Jr. is surely a step down in offense, but that downgrade is compensated for by stellar defense. Jackie has the 24th highest active WAR in baseball and has proven in his career that despite being an extremely streaky hitter, his defense is consistently excellent and he’s a strong baserunner when he can find a way to get on.

In order to not see an offensive drop-off and continue to see defensive improvement this season, Chaim Bloom took a bold stance and signed SS/2B Trevor Story to a large contract. The addition immediately improves the defense at 2nd base (Story was 12th in defensive WAR in 2021) and adds a nice pop to the lineup offensively, not to mention legitimate speed on the bases. Story is a career .272 hitter with 158 HRs and 100 SBs in his 6 seasons with the Colorado Rockies (745 games). Even if there is a slight dip in production leaving the thin air of Denver, which I highly doubt will be significant, Story is coming to play in an almost perfectly-configured-for-his-swing Fenway Park for 81 games a season. No matter how you slice it, the defense and lineup improved over 2021.

The concern, as with most years in recent memory, is the pitching staff for the Red Sox. Do they have enough arms? Can the starting pitching compete with the other AL East lineups? Will Chris Sale ever be Chris Sale again? What does the backend of the bullpen look like? And so on.

There were some notable departures this offseason that definitely left a bit of a hole in the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez left for the Detroit Tigers in search of a change of scenery and despite my constant frustration with him, he occasionally had stretches of solid pitching for the Red Sox. The Red Sox lost some additional backend of the rotation depth in Martin Perez and with the injury to Chris Sale, the rotation looks mighty thin to begin the season. It’s shaping up to have Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill, with Garrett Whitlock in a multi-inning relief role or a rotation sub. Overall, Houck should be getting better in now his 2nd full season in the majors, Wacha is pretty similar to Martin Perez but with more upside and Rich Hill with his sub-4 career ERA as your #5 starter isn’t terrible. Not to mention that Chris Sale and James Paxton should be returning from injuries around mid-season. Call me naïve, but I think there is a potential for this rotation to be more than serviceable barring additional injuries with the offense this team puts out there each and every day. In general, this lineup should produce 5+ runs a game (5.12/game last season), so all you need from your pitching staff is to allow 5 or fewer runs and you’ll win most nights.

The other pitching area of concern is the bullpen. The absolute freefall of Matt Barnes last year became a glaring problem at the closer spot. Supposedly, he found a mechanical issue that is being corrected this spring and if that’s true and he returns to form, that solidifies the backend of the bullpen. Losing Adam Ottavino hurts, but the additions of Jake Diekman as a lefty and a more experienced Garrett Whitlock in a longer-relief role (for now), should be stable. Home grown Kutter Crawford (2017 Red Sox draft pick) has emerged in Spring Training and will have a shot in the majors after just a cup of coffee last year. The addition of free agents Tyler Danish and Matt Strahm are added to the returnees Josh Taylor, Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, Austin Davis and Phillips Valdez (to start the year). It’s hard to evaluate a bullpen without seeing them in action and in what roles they will be used, but I think the Red Sox have enough arms in the majors and AAA to mix-and-match a solid group. They have more lefty support than in the past and I believe Sawamura in his 2nd year with the Red Sox will be more comfortable and hopefully cut back on the walks while maintaining a 3ish ERA. He could become a high-leverage reliever for Alex Cora. I’m not sure as a group they are better than last year as of today, but I don’t think they got significantly worse.

Overall, I feel like the defense and lineup improved over 2021 while the starting rotation and bullpen still leave much to be desired. That being said, I genuinely believe there is enough talent in the pitching pool to match or potentially exceed last year’s production if you’re willing to be patient and wait for it all to settle out as the season wears on. There are some young arms (Houck, Whitlock, Crawford) who hopefully will take the next step in development this year and a few new veteran faces (Hill, Wacha, Diekman) to help them along. Yes, others in the league made splashy moves and got better, but I think the Red Sox methodically and somewhat under-the-radar got better (besides the splashy Story signing). They were 2 games from the World Series last year with a fairly similar roster, so there wasn’t the pressure for Bloom to blow it up and start over (like some other teams felt). He addressed the defense and 2nd base need and time will tell if his pitching additions were smart or a bust. If they turn out to be smart, I can’t rule out another nice playoff run in 2022. If they turn out to be busts, the offense will only carry this team so far and they may be fighting for the 3rd Wild Card come September.

AL East Prediction

  1. Toronto Blue Jays – 91-71
  2. Boston Red Sox – 88-74
  3. New York Yankees – 87-75
  4. Tampa Bay Rays – 86-76
  5. Baltimore Orioles – 60-102

Overall, I think this is finally the year the Blue Jays sit atop the AL East. They are stacked top-to-bottom and as long as they stay healthy, their offense can compete with anyone while their starting rotation continues to look daunting. I also believe that this is the season the Tampa Bay Rays fall back a bit. They have been overachieving for so long, eventually their small budget will begin to show and they will settle down in the division. Ultimately though, I think the top 4 in the division will be within 5-8 games of each other, so a win here or there in April or May could make the difference down the stretch. With a 3rd Wild Card this year, it could be a race for 3 or even 4 AL East teams to get into the playoffs. The only thing I know for certain? The Baltimore Orioles will be out of contention by the All-Star break (if not long before).

The Most Important Series of the Season

With just a few short weeks left in the 2021 MLB regular season, the Red Sox are confronted with the most important 3-game set of the year against their vaunted rival. The next 3 days will go a long way in determining the 2 AL Wild Card spots and has the potential to begin to either resurrect or bury the New York Yankees. The drama will be high and the atmosphere will be electric. What else could you ask for from the Red Sox and Yankees at Fenway Park in September?

Going into this series the Red Sox have taken care of business against inferior opponents with a 7-game win streak. They have built a 2-game cushion over the New York Yankees in the Wild Card with the Toronto Blue Jays lingering just 0.5 games behind the Yankees with the results of their contest with the Minnesota Twins on Thursday night still not decided. The lead for the Red Sox puts them in the driver’s seat entering this series. If they can win at least 1 of 3 it will allow the Red Sox to at least stay tied for a Wild Card spot with an easy final 6 games.

Obviously, the Red Sox want more than just 1 win. Taking 2 out of 3 puts a 3-game gap between the two teams, which drops the Yankees odds of making the playoffs and greatly increases the Red Sox odds. A sweep of the Yankees would be absolutely devastating for the pinstripes, putting them 5 games back of the Red Sox with 6 to play, all but guaranteeing a playoff spot for the Red Sox and putting even more pressure on the Yankees series up in Toronto immediately following their Fenway Park set. Depending on how the Blue Jays perform against the Twins, a sweep could come close to ending the Yankees season.

There is clearly a flip-side of the sweep, if the Yankees were to pull out the brooms against the Red Sox. It would put the Yankees 1 game ahead with 6 to play, but as mentioned above, the Yankees still have to go to Toronto for 3 games and then play the AL East leaders Tampa Bay Rays for 3. This is an absolute gauntlet for the Yankees and if they ultimately make the playoffs, it will be because they beat the best to get there, but they have a serious uphill climb beginning Friday. You know the Red Sox are fully aware of their position and are playing this series to bury the Yankees and get closer to, or even clinch, a playoff berth.

Stock your fridge, grab some snacks, get a comfy place on the couch, and collect every good luck charm you have, because the next three days are going to be crucial and intense.

The Crazy AL Wild Card Race

From 3-way ties to AL East dominance, the AL Wild Card race is proving to be high drama in 2021. As it sits on the morning of September 17th, it is a a battle between the Toronto Blue Jays (82-64), the Boston Red Sox (83-65) and the New York Yankees (82-65, 0.5 games back), with the Oakland Athletics (79-67, 3 games back) and the Seattle Mariners (78-68, 4 games back) hoping for a slip from the teams above. With between 14-16 games remaining for every team, the final 2 weeks are absolute must-watch baseball every night.

As a Red Sox fan, it’s frustrating that the team is even in this position fighting for a playoff spot. Putting that aside, let’s take a closer look at the race, see what the next few weeks will look like for the 3 AL East teams, and make some predictions on the outcome.

Toronto Blue Jays

Playoff Odds: 84.0%

The Blue Jays have the 2nd best run differential in the AL and 4th best in the MLB this season. They have been on an absolute tear the last month or so, going 16-3 over their last 19 games, including an 8-game winning streak and a 4-game sweep of the New York Yankees about a week ago to make this race even more interesting. Their surge has been marked by tremendous offensive production. In the 15 games so far in September (13-2), the Blue Jays have scored fewer than 5 runs just twice, and have scored 10+ runs in 5 games. If they continue scoring at this same level, it will be incredibly hard to see them not getting one of the 2 wild card spots in 2 weeks. They will also be a very difficult out in the wild card game if they can continue to score in bunches.

Their schedule going forward isn’t terribly difficult, but has a few potential hurdles. They face the 64-83, 5th place in the AL Central Minnesota Twins 7 times in the final 16 games, including a 4-game set on the road at Target Field and a 3-game set to end the season at home against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. They do have 3 games at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay against the Rays and a huge 3-game set at home against the New York Yankees, but overall that’s a fairly light schedule for the highly potent Blue Jays offense. Overall, I think the remaining games are favorable for Toronto assuming they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat and not get swept by the Rays or Yankees. Their playoff odds have jumped a massive 42.5% in 30 days and it’s looking better and better for the team north of the border.

Boston Red Sox

Playoff Odds: 71%

The strange rollercoaster of a season continues in Boston. The most dominant and surprising team early on in the year is now in the mix to miss the playoffs all together with 2 weeks remaining. The Red Sox went from first place on July 30th to 8 games back tied for 2nd as of writing this, which is amazingly and improvement after spending 19 games in 3rd place in the end of August and into September. The September schedule for the Red Sox has been tough, with all but 3 of the 14 games against above .500 teams and the other 3 games were against Cleveland who are 71-73 and 2nd in the AL Central. The Red Sox went 8-6, which while not amazing, has kept them in the hunt for a wild card spot.

The good news for Red Sox fans is their schedule. They face the lowly Baltimore Orioles 6 times (3 at home, 3 on the road), the New York Mets 2 times at home, and the Washington Nationals for 3 on the road to end the season. The biggest three games in the middle are a homestand with the New York Yankees. If the Red Sox can win the majority of the games they are supposed to win against lesser opponents, they may have a chance to sink the Yankees chances with a series win at Fenway September 24-26. The Red Sox are 21-12 against their remaining opponents (they haven’t play the Nationals yet) and have the most favorable schedule of the 3 AL East teams fighting for the 2 wild card spots.

New York Yankees

Playoff Odds: 36.4%

After an incredibly hot August, the Yankees are struggling in a big way in September. In August the Yankees went 21-8 and climbed as close as 4 games back in the division race and 2 games up in the top wild card spot on August 27th. Now 15 games into September, the Yankees have fallen to 9 games back in the division and are 0.5 games back of even the 2nd wild card spot. According to Baseball Reference, over the last 30 days the Yankees playoff odds have dropped 12%, which is a tough spot to be in with 2 weeks remaining. That being said, if they get hot and start rolling, they have a reasonable shot at the 2nd wild card position and even the top spot if Toronto and Boston falter.

The upcoming schedule is really tough for the Yankees. On one hand, they have the opportunity to face the Blue Jays and Red Sox head-to-head which could change the race dramatically, but on the other hand, they finish the season with 6 of 9 on the road and all 9 against teams in the division fighting for a playoff spot. This season, the Yankees have been outscored in games on the road (322-321) despite a 41-34 record and more importantly, they are 19-29 against the Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox combined. If the Yankees want to put themselves in a better position, they need to take care of business at home against the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers over the next 6 games. Both teams are under .500, although Cleveland just barely, and the Yankees have gone 6-2 against the 2 clubs so far this season. The wild card will likely be decided in games 154-159 on the road in Boston and Toronto.


Prediction

  • 1st Wild Card – Toronto Blue Jays
  • 2nd Wild Card – Boston Red Sox
  • Wild Card winner – Toronto Blue Jays

While I think this will be a battle until the bitter end, the Blue Jays and Red Sox have the advantage going into the final few weeks. The Yankees are more than capable of making a run and stealing a spot from one of the 2 teams, but the way they have been playing and their schedule will make it a tough task. When it comes to the actual Wild Card game, I give the advantage to the Blue Jays regardless of location, but an even more significant advantage if they are playing in the Rogers Centre. If the game were to be at Fenway, it would be a closer call for me, but I always favor the hotter team and it’s hard to find a team with more momentum (as of today) than the Blue Jays. With all that said, a LOT can happen in two weeks of baseball and the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners are not going to sit back and watch the battle in front of them passively.

*All playoff odds are from Baseball Reference.

Is this Rock Bottom for the Red Sox?

The first 3 and a half months of the MLB season were incredibly fun to watch. The Red Sox were surprising just about everyone and winning games in every way possible. They led the league in come-from-behind wins and it seemed that they were never out of contention regardless of score or inning. In the 6 weeks since the All-Star break, things have gone from ok, to bad, to awful in rapid succession and the current series with the Tampa Bay Rays may be rock bottom. In the middle of losing their 2nd straight game to the division leading Rays, SS Xander Bogaerts was pulled from the game due to a positive COVID test result becoming the 6th player to go down with the virus in a few short days.

On Wednesday, we learned that there was a 7th positive test result, and likely not the last, in INF Yairo Munoz. Munoz was already a replacement for Christian Arroyo who contracted COVID. At the rate in which the Red Sox are forced to call up players from the WooSox, it would be best to just park a bus outside the WooSox locker room and keep the engine running for when, inevitably, the next player lands on the COVID-IL.

While many of the players contracting COVID were vaccinated, according to Chaim Bloom the “majority”, the outbreak shines a bright light on the fact that the Red Sox are 1 of 6 teams under the 85% vaccinated threshold in the MLB. No one can force anyone to get vaccinated, but the low rate reflects really poorly on the team’s leadership, whether fair or not. It’s raises a ton of red flags and concerns around Alex Cora, Chaim Bloom, and the other leaders in the clubhouse, players and coaches. I don’t know who is or is not vaccinated on the roster, nor do I need to, but this outbreak situation is rock bottom for an already pathetic-looking team.

Recently, even when it kept getting worse, I believed hope was still alive and this team could sneak into the playoffs and maybe make a run if the stars aligned perfectly. After all, they still have a really strong record and are technically in a playoff spot if the season ended today. After watching the last few games and seeing player after player go down with COVID and be out for likely at least 10+ days, I’m not sure sneaking into the 2nd wild card is even the most likely scenario anymore. Alex Cora looks dejected and admitted he was “exhausted” the other day and the team is reflecting that energy.

I learned a long time ago to never say never when it comes to sports, but this is the lowest I’ve felt about this Red Sox team all season. It’s hard to find the joy in each game and as more and more of the WooSox roster gets called up the the majors, it’s hard to see this team legitimately competing in the crucial short-term stretch. I hope I’m wrong, but I think this is rock bottom for the 2021 season.

Orioles Just What the Doctor Ordered

The last three weeks have been brutal for the Boston Red Sox. From July 24 through Aug 12, the Red Sox went 6-13 and went from being tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for 1st in the AL East to 5 games back. Other than one 20-run outburst on August 11 against the Rays, the Red Sox bats went cold and the pitching staff was struggling to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Then the Baltimore Orioles came to town.

When a really good team is struggling, sometimes it takes a little spark, and a terrible opponent, to right the ship. In a 3-game set at home against the Orioles this past weekend, the offense exploded for 30 runs and the pitching staff held the lowly Orioles to just 5 total runs in the series. While the results are in no way surprising since the Os sit at 38-78 on the season, a whopping 24.5 games out of 4th place in the AL East, the course correction couldn’t have happened soon enough. The Red Sox are talented, but were struggling top to bottom this past month.

Hopefully seeing the bat hit the ball and the K’s pile up will instill confidence across the roster for a team that was overflowing with it the first half of the year. The return of ace SP Chris Sale on Friday for the first time in two years was definitely a moment for the team to step up and it caused an energizing jolt. Sale’s 5 IP and 2 ERs were a welcome sight and hopefully the beginning of a slow build to the postseason for him and consistent starts every five days. The official Red Sox debut of DH/OF/1B (maybe) Kyle Schwarber also provided an offensive kick with 2 BBs on Saturday and 2 doubles on Sunday. The long overdue move to put young SP Tanner Houck in the rotation permanently also helps to solidify a struggling group and moves a few decent arms into the bullpen where they are more likely to have success.

It’s just three games against the worst team in baseball, but the jolt in confidence will hopefully carry over going forward. The Red Sox schedule continues with a 3-games set in the Bronx against the New York Yankees beginning Monday, which will be hard-fought. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they will have a tough time gaining ground in the AL East the next few weeks because the 1st place Rays are playing the Orioles 6 of their next 11 games.

Can the Bleeding Be Stopped for the Red Sox?

The last few weeks have been an abject disaster for the Boston Red Sox. The team has gone from an over-achieving, likable contender that was fun to watch to an under-achieving, disappointing mess that makes me want to turn off the TV at least twice a game. Since July 28th, the Red Sox are 3-10 and have gone from 1st place in the AL East, 2.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays and 8.5 games ahead of the New York Yankees, to 2nd place in the AL East, 4 games back of the Rays and just 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees. The team is collapsing in every aspect of play with less than 50 games left. Can the season be salvaged at this point?

The 2021 season has been a tail of two halves (pre/post All Star game). The 1st half saw the Red Sox surprise everyone with a 55-36 record and a +57 run differential. After a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles to start the year, the team turned on the jets and were winning games in every way, including 30+ come from behind victories. It felt like this team had the championship contender x-factors: grittiness and never-give-up-mentality. Then the 2nd half of the season kicked off and the team has lost the qualities we fell in love with earlier in the year. Their 10-13 record in the 2nd half is highlighted by a -24 run differential.

The biggest issue with the team right now? It depends on the game, but basically everything. For most of the season the starting pitching has been just OK but the offense has more than made up for poor starts. The offense overall was averaging a very strong 5.1 runs per game before the All-Star break, but since the break, that number has dropped more than a run per game to 3.8. On the pitching side, the staff was allowing 4.0 runs per game in the first half and have been allowing 4.6 runs per game since the break. While the pitching jump isn’t as drastic as the offensive production drop, the combination of the two is dramatic.

The struggles on offense can be directly linked to the top two hitters in the lineup, J.D. Martinez (.253 in 21 games in the 2nd half with just 3 HRs and 9 RBIs) and Xander Bogaerts (.221 in 20 games in the 2nd half with 1 HR and 5 RBIs). During the 1st half of the season, Martinez’s average was .046 points higher and Bogaerts’ average was .100 points higher than the 2nd half. Overall, the team average dropped .009, which doesn’t seem significant in a small sample, but is obviously showing itself in runs scored. There is also some diminished power in the 2nd half of the season with the team’s HRs per game number dropping from 1.26 to 1.13, but even the 1.13 is inflated thanks to a 6 HR and 5 HR game on July 19 and 21. Since July 21, the Red Sox are hitting just 0.72 HRs per game.

The the pitching side, it’s a different chapter of the same story. Only 2 of the 5 primary starting pitchers on the Red Sox has an ERA at or below their career average, meaning that based on ERA alone, 3/5 of the starting rotation is underachieving this season. Since ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, a look at WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning) confirms the struggles with 3/5 of the rotation above their career average. While the overall picture isn’t great, the 1st half vs 2nd half disparity is even worse. The ERA growth in the 2nd half of the season is absolutely crushing the team right now. All but one starter’s ERA has grown since the All-Star break, and the lone exception, E-Rod, was already so high at 5.52 before the break that a drop isn’t shocking (Garrett Richards +1.84 ERA, Nathan Eovaldi +2.30, Eduardo Rodriguez -1.32, Martin Perez +4.78, Nick Pivetta +0.20).

There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of talk around the inactivity at the trade deadline for the Red Sox, but I’m honestly not sure it would have made enough of a difference. As the offense has come back down to earth and the pitching staff has struggle a bit more, one more starter and one more offensive player weren’t going to turn around the fortunes of this club, but could have helped win a game or two. It’s an overall team struggle at the moment.

There were a few encouraging offensive signs in the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays. If the bats can come alive and return to form and the pitching staff can begin to right the ship just a little, even just a little, they can recover. The addition of a 75% Chris Sale will help significantly by moving a starter to the bullpen helping to alleviate some strain there. The Red Sox are still 16 games above .500 despite the horrible slide, so a course correction could leave them in the hunt. I don’t think they are good enough to be a legitimate championship contender anymore the way the roster stands, but some competitive postseason baseball would be nice…please.

It’s Time to Push the Red Sox Panic Button

After a disappointing and flat trade deadline that did not address the most glaring needs on the roster, the Red Sox opened a 3-game set with the 2nd place Tampa Bay Rays just 0.5 games ahead in the AL East. After being swept in, at times, embarrassing fashion, and on a 4-game losing streak, it’s officially time to panic. The 1.5 game deficit in the division is obviously not insurmountable, but with the improved New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays poised to make a run at 2nd and a wild card berth (now just 5.5 and 6.5 games behind the Red Sox respectively), it’s going to get worse before it’s over.

The major issue for this team is the pitching staff. Before a great outing from P Nick Pivetta on Sunday to kick-off August, the staff struggled. In July, the staff had a 4.56 ERA, allowed 29 HRs, and walked 76 batters in 25 games. That translates to 1.16 HRs and 3.04 BBs per game during the month. Your current “ace” P Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t gone past 6 innings since April and hasn’t even recorded an out in the 6th inning in 10 of his last 15 starts. His past two starts are a combined 4.1 innings with 7 earned runs and his ERA for the season is now 5.60 including a concerning 1 inning outing where he left with a migraine. E-Rod just can’t seem to reach his potential for any extended period of time.

The rest of the rotation has been up and down as well. The down is definitely P Garrett Richards who just doesn’t look like he belongs in a major league rotation at this point. I’m sure the Red Sox are waiting for Sale to return to boot him, but it’s getting hard to watch when his turn is up. In his last 10 starts, his ERA has steadily grown every single game from 3.75 to 5.15. He’s a guaranteed 4 runs allowed per game in 4-5 innings. The up has been P Nathan Eovaldi when he’s on, but just like everyone else, has had several bad games in the last month or two, allowing 5 runs in 2 of his last 4 starts.

Chris Sale will be returning at some point, but even if he is 100% vintage Sale, which he will not be, he can only pitch every 5 days. When the other 4 days are up and down short outings and taxed bullpen arms, the losses will pile up, especially with 20 more games to play against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. If the Red Sox make the postseason, and that’s a big if, I have very little confidence in the pitching staff to hold off a heavy-hitting lineup.

If the pitching staff is just ok, then the offense for the Red Sox needs to step up and score a ton of runs. That leads me to the other glaring weakness of the team, first base. Red Sox first baseman this year are hitting a combined .217 with an OBP of .261 and just 14 HRs in 107 games. The leader of the pack is 1B Bobby Dalbec with a WAR of -1.1 and a staggering .214 average. Everyone knew coming up that he had a tendency to strikeout, but that could be offset by his power and decent average. In 86 games (299 PAs), he is hitting .214 with 11 HRs and 113 Ks. If the Red Sox had any other option, he would be in AAA right now. The addition of OF Kyle Schwarber could help if he can convert to first base, but he’s still a week or two away from being able to play with his hamstring issue and then needs to take some time to get comfortable there. By that point, the Red Sox could be 5-6 games out and hanging on by a thread to 3rd or even 4th place in the division.

The larger offensive concern right now is the overall team production. Everyone thought OF Jarren Duran would be the spark to light the team on fire, but he’s struggling big time with a .150 average and just 1 HR and 17 Ks in 14 games (43 PAs). He’s more of a liability than an asset and may just find himself out of the playoff picture (if the Sox get there) replaced by Schwarber, or anyone else, in the outfield. The heavy-hitters in the lineup are also struggling, with DH/OF J.D. Martinez looking a bit lost at the plate hitting .146 in his last 12 games and SS Xander Bogaerts hitting .225 in his last 22 games. This team needs a lot of offensive production to compensate for shaky pitching at times and right now, they are getting neither.


There is obviously still time for things to turn around. The offense could begin to get going and return to their big-hitting form and the starting pitching could give this team just enough to win a bunch of games, but right now, things look pretty scary. It’s the worst this team has looked all season at the worst possible time to be struggling with everyone around them turning it on for the stretch run. On top of that, the AL West may grab one of the two wild card berths, making it a 4-way fight for two spots, instead of three in another year. I want to believe, but I just don’t have a good feeling about how this will end.

48+ Hours of Crazy in the AL East – Grading the Moves

With the exception of the Baltimore Orioles, AL East teams were all active participants in one of the craziest trade deadlines in history. The race for the division is now tighter than even the standings show, with 4 teams vying for the division title with around 57 or 58 games to play. Let’s review the moves and rate the success as the sprint to the playoffs begins…

Red Sox – C

In: OF Kyle Schwarber, P Hansel Robles, P Austin Davis

Out: INF/OF Michael Chavis, P Alex Scherff, P Aldo Ramirez

Currently hanging on by a thread as the 1st place team in the division, the Red Sox had a disappointing deadline. In need of a 1B and a SP or RP to bolster their chances, they filled 1/2 of one of their needs and got a few mediocre arms that may or may not fit into the picture. The addition of Kyle Schwarber is strong and the only reason they got a C-. If he can recover quickly from his hamstring issue then he can be an asset, but when put in the context of needs and what the rest of the division did, it’s not good enough.

That being said, the prospect price for bigger names was sky-high this year and Chaim Bloom stuck to his guns of not giving up the farm to contend this year. He didn’t want to hurt the system he is building for the future, a stark contrast to Dave Dombrowski’s approach. By continuing to build and grow the system, the Red Sox will be able to compete each and every year, although I don’t think they have the pitching to contend in 2021.

Rays – C+

In: OF/DH Nelson Cruz, P JT Chargois, 3B Austin Shenton, OF Jordan Luplow, P DJ Johnson

Out: P Rich Hill, P Diego Castillo, P Peyton Battenfield

The Rays had a bit of a puzzling week before the trade deadline. They brought in notorious Red Sox killer Nelson Cruz, who will help when the two teams face off 13 times the remainder of the season. Then they traded away veteran starter Rich Hill which seemed like the beginning of a flurry of moves, and then they didn’t do a whole lot. They traded away P Diego Castillo and brought in a handful of prospects, but other than Cruz, they didn’t get much better.

The Rays are in a strong position to fight for the division title and didn’t need to do a lot at the deadline. I’m surprised they didn’t add another piece or two, but I’m also not sure they needed to add.

Yankees – B

In: OF Joey Gallo, 1B Anthony Rizzo, P Andrew Heaney, P Joely Rodriguez

Out: P Glenn Otto, 2B Josh Smith, SS Ezequiel Duran, 2B Trevor Hauver, P Alexander Vizcaino, OF Kevin Alcantara, P Janson Junk, P Elvis Peguero

Like the Red Sox, the Yankees failed to seriously address one need: starting pitching. However, they did address a major need for left-handed power in the lineup by bringing in two big-power guys in OF Joey Gallo and 1B Anthony Rizzo. It’s unclear whether they really needed Rizzo or were just adamant about keeping him away from the Red Sox, but he will certainly improve the Yankees lineup. Rodriguez and Heaney don’t move the needle much, if at all.

The amount and level of prospects traded is significant for the Yankees, including their #7 (Alcantara), #8 (Duran), #11 (Vizcaino), #19 (Smith), #29 (Hauver), and #37 (Otto) according to the FanGraphs in February. The Red Sox don’t have the luxury of trading that level of prospects for some rental players.

Blue Jays – A-

In: P Jose Berrios, P Brad Hand, P Joakim Soria, P Shawn Armstrong

Out: SS Austin Martin, P Simeon Woods Richardson, C Riley Adams, P T.J. Zeuch

The addition of Jose Berrios and Brad Hand were big get for the Jays. Their pitching staff was very strong and now is undoubtedly the best in the division. Between starters Hyun Jun Ryu, Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling, and reliever Jordan Romano added to the new additions, they are potent. The biggest issue for the Jays is the traffic in front of them as they sit in 4th in the division and back a bit in the wild card race.

With the bolstering of the pitching staff and an already strong lineup, the Yankees better watch their back over the final stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jays grab a wild card spot or pressure the Red Sox and Rays for the division lead.

Orioles – N/A

In: P Tyler Burch

Out: SS Freddy Galvis, P Shawn Armstrong

What can I say? The Orioles are terrible and didn’t do anything to improve and why would they? They sent Freddy Galvis to the Phillies and Shawn Armstrong to the Rays and they will still finish last in the division by 30+ games. I can’t in good conscience give the Orioles a grade, because it’s just not fair, or worth it.

Chaim Bloom: Trade Deadline Success?

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

With the trade deadline just 2+ days away, it’s worth looking at Chaim Bloom’s history with trades this time of year. Beginning with Bloom’s promotion to Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations (2nd in command) in late 2016, he has been quite active leading up to the deadline. Overall, he has a decent track record of success over the past 4 years, even when the Rays were sellers in 2018. Although he wasn’t the only one calling the shots during his time in Tampa, he was a major voice in the decision-making. What will the 2021 trade deadline bring for Bloom and the Red Sox?

Let’s look, year-by-year, at the deals Bloom has made leading up to the trade deadline.

2017 – Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays made some small acquisitions in 2017, including bolstering their bullpen and attempting to improve at 1B.

Acquired

Traded Away

Analysis: This was a decent deadline with P Chaz Roe and P Sergio Romo having extremely strong remainders to 2017 despite the Rays missing the playoffs (Roe – 9 appearances – 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 12 Ks, 3 BBs and Romo – 25 appearances – 30.2 IP, 1.47 ERA, 28 Ks, 7 BBs). While neither repeated their miniscule ERAs going forward, Roe is still with the team and Romo had a good 2018 before heading to the Miami Marlins. 1B Lucas Duda and P Dan Jennings were mostly irrelevant the remainder of 2017 before leaving the Rays. P Drew Smith has had minimal impact for the New York Mets since making his debut in 2018 and 1B Casey Gillaspie, at 28, has not risen above AA.

2018 – Tampa Bay Rays

This was a classic seller-minded trade deadline for the Rays. With more than a half-dozen transactions, they completely re-made their roster, mostly by trading away their pitching rotation.

Acquired

Traded Away

Analysis: While the Rays certainly traded away some serious assets at the deadline, it wasn’t a complete blow-up and restart. They traded away some big pitching names in Archer and Eovaldi but acquired a few players with some big upside. The biggest future impacts came from P Tyler Glasnow, OF Austin Meadows, and OF Tommy Pham. All three had a major impact in clinching the 2019 2nd Wild Card spot and beating the Oakland Athletics in the ALWC game and Glasnow and Meadows were on the 2020 roster that reached the World Series. P Jalen Beeks was performing well in 2020 before needing Tommy John surgery in August 2020. Since the trade, Archer’s ERA has grown from 3.70 to 4.92 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is a check in Bloom’s column.

2019 – Tampa Bay Rays

In his last year with the Rays, the trade deadline was much quieter for Bloom than 2018.

Acquired

Traded Away

Analysis: Overall this is a decent trade deadline. While 1B Jesus Aguilar was only on the roster for the remainder of 2019 before heading to Miami, P Nick Anderson and P Trevor Richards are still with the Rays. Anderson had a strong 2020 before ending up with an elbow tear and has yet to appear in 2021. Richards is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 27 games (38.2 IP) for the Rays this year. OF Jesus Sanchez has been solid for the Marlins, but Stanek (HOU), Kolarek (OAK), and Faria (MIL) haven’t been anything to write home about.  

2020 – Boston Red Sox

In his first year at the Red Sox helm, it was one of the oddest seasons in MLB history. The shortened year, sign-stealing scandal leading to the firing of Alex Cora, and the COVID pandemic, it was difficult to truly judge Bloom’s effectiveness at the deadline.

Acquired

Traded Away

Analysis: The 2020 deadline was an opportunity for Bloom to begin rebuilding the farm system that was cleaned out by his predecessor Dave Dombrowski. Bloom brought in 4 prospects: P Connor Seabold (#6 prospect), OF Jeisson Rosario (#24 prospect), 3B Hudson Potts (#26 prospect), and Jacob Wallace (#48 prospect – was #28, but the UConn product has struggled in 2021). Along with the prospects, Bloom brought in P Nick Pivetta, who has had a solid impact on the AL East leading 2021 Red Sox. While it was sad to see 1B Mitch Moreland go and frankly, they could use him right now, overall it was successful deadline for Bloom.

*As of July 2021, rankings by SoxProspects.com

Anthony Rizzo: The Right Player at the Right Time

Just as the 2008 season was about to begin, I remember hearing about a kid in the Red Sox minor-league system. He was a 6-3 220lb (now 240lbs) first base prospect, but it wasn’t his baseball prowess that was being talked about; it was his health. The 6th round selection in 2007 out of high school, Anthony Rizzo, had been diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma at age 18. Rizzo began a 6-month battle including chemotherapy that thankfully resulted in the cancer going into remission in September 2008.

This was obviously terrible news for me personally, but it was even more grueling for my family because my Grandma was facing her own battle with breast cancer at the very same time. As bad as my chemotherapy treatments made me feel, I knew I had to dig deep and stay strong for everyone around me.

Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rizzo Family Foundation website

After recovering and feeling strong enough to resume his baseball career, Rizzo began to take off in 2009. Between A Greenville and A+ Salem, Rizzo hit .297 with 12 HRs and 166 RBIs. The biggest knock on him was his lack of power for a first baseman, but he was still climbing up the Red Sox prospect list to #8 in September 2009* and began 2010 at #5. In 2010, Rizzo began the year in A+ Salem before moving up to AA Portland and combined for to hit .334 with 25 HRs and 100 RBIs. The expectations were rapidly rising for the 6th round pick and he finished the season as the #3 prospect in the system.

It looked as though Rizzo would make the jump to AAA in 2011 and perhaps knock on the major league door as the year wore on, but his Red Sox story was cut short. In December 2010, Theo Epstein traded Anthony Rizzo, P Casey Kelly, OF Reymond Fuentes, and OF/2B Eric Patterson (player-to-be-named-later) to the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez. Rizzo was then traded to the Chicago Cubs in 2012.

Since arriving in Chicago, Rizzo has shown what we saw glimpses of when he was younger. He is a 3x all-star, 4x gold glove award winner, a silver slugger award winner, and helped the Cubs break their world series drought in 2016. He appeared in at least 85% of his teams’ games from 2013 to 2020 and didn’t see his first DL-stint until 2018. At nearly 32, his best days are probably behind him in his career, but now is the perfect time for him to return to where his career began.


The rumors of a Rizzo return to Boston have been gaining momentum each day as the trade deadline approaches. One of the only offensive/defensive needs the Red Sox have through 101 games in the 2021 season is at first base and Rizzo has an expiring contract on a terrible Cubs team, so will come at a lower price than some other options. It wouldn’t just be a feel-good story, he would be a useful addition to the roster. Bobby Dalbec is just not getting the job done and the rotation of a 2B/OF Michael Chavis and OF Franchy Cordero in that spot is a clear weakness.

While I’m still hopeful that Dalbec can improve and take the 1B spot beyond 2021, the Red Sox need to fill the hole for the remainder of this year if they want to continue competing with the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East and ultimately for a championship. A veteran leader in the clubhouse, a strong defensive presence, and someone who can hit for power from the left-side of the plate. What more could you want?

*According to SoxProspects.com