trent brown

Blueprint for a Zappe Takeover

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

Just 70 pass attempts into his NFL career, Bailey Zappe has riled up the Patriots fanbase and Boston sports media. The rookie 4th rounder found himself on the field as an NFL QB in just his 4th game on the roster and now is the starting QB for the New England Patriots at 23 years old. Zappe unexpectedly broke onto the scene following a Mac Jones sprained ankle and a Brian Hoyer concussion and now in 3 games (2 starts and a 3+ quarter effort off the bench) he has raised significant questions about the future at QB1 for the Pats. We’ve seen it in New England before in the most memorable surprise QB takeover of all time. Is this second once-in-a-lifetime QB move for Belichick? All the ingredients are there for a changing of the guard at QB1.

First let’s look at the case for Zappe as QB1. The most obvious is that he’s stepped in under difficult circumstances and had very few “rookie” moments. You expect a young QB to make some bad reads, hold the ball too long, or in general just be indecisive. While there have been a few isolated moments, Zappe has shown that nearly every single series he is able to make good decisions. He’s made smart throws and committed very few turnovers in 11+ quarters of play, something Belichick loves to see. For the most part, he hasn’t tried to force passes into bad situations (double coverage) and has done a nice job of managing the offense on longer, sustained drives. Beyond just being a game manager, he’s made some big throws and reads on important drives in the past 2 games against the Lions and Browns. He has an average QB rating of 111.4 and has been at 100+ in all 3 of his appearances.

A noticeable characteristic of Zappe’s game is his confidence. It feels like he is in control of the game and is able to forget mistakes and move on extremely quickly. He has the goldfish mentality of short-term memory loss. A great example of this was a drive in the 3rd quarter of Sundays game vs the Browns. Zappe had a tough 3-and-out thanks partially to a 1st down holding call on Trent Brown. He threw to Tyquan Thornton for just 2 yards on 1st, then on 3rd and 15 he missed a wide-open Hunter Henry with a terribly thrown ball. He seemed frustrated walking off the field and frankly, he looked a lot like a rookie QB during the series. Then after getting the ball back, as if the previous drive hadn’t happened, Zappe threw for 8 yards to Jonnu Smith followed by a 31-yard strike to Hunter Henry for a TD. He shook off the bad series and moved on immediately, showing confidence in his arm while throwing for a critical TD in a relatively close 9-pt game.

Since I unironically and unintentionally keep calling him Brady Zappe, let’s take a quick look at how the 2 QBs compare after nearly 3 games under their belt. After taking over for Drew Bledsoe on September 23, 2001, Brady was 30 for 57 (53%) for 300 yards in his partial game and next two starts, throwing for 0 TDs and 0 INTs. By comparison, Zappe was 51 for 70 (73%) for 596 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT (100% Nelson Agholor‘s fault) over a similar span of time. That’s a pretty dramatic difference, despite it not being a perfect 1-for-1 comparison given the era, a small sample size, etc. To take it one step further, looking at Mac Jones’ first 3 games (all starts, so more snaps), he went 81 for 120 (68%) for 737 with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. The completion percentage and yardage is strong, but it’s hard to argue that Mac’s 3 INTs (all against the Saints week 3) and just 2 TDs aren’t as impressive and Zappe’s start.

The positives are clearly there for Zappe and he has earned the praise and head-turns, but I’m not yet convinced he should Brady-takeover Mac Jones. Zappe has had the privilege of a top-tier defense in his 2 starts, never trailing in either game and honestly the games were never that close. That’s allowed him to play relaxed and with less pressure, which is obviously hugely beneficial for a young kid. He did have a few high-pressure drives in Green Bay and was fine, but he clearly had a limited playbook given the circumstances and it is really tough to judge that performance after being thrown into the game unexpectedly. Additionally, he’s yet to play a really good defense in his young career, facing the Packers, Lions, and Browns. A lot of QBs can look good against average or below average defenses, so a bigger test against a better D would help in evaluating his long-term potential. I’ve heard a lot of narratives about how bad Mac was to begin the year and how good Zappe is in comparison, but the competition-level and time of season make it an apples to oranges comparison. Would Mac be having a similar level of success as Zappe against these opponents? It’s possible.

I was convinced there would be no official Zappe takeover during this past week, but have begun to shift my feelings thanks to a factor not related to performance. Boston sports teams and media have a bad habit of running a “smear” campaign to justify a big move or a big benching, among all of the major sports in town. For Red Sox fans, we’ve seen the a LOT of this nonsense over the years. This week began that campaign against Mac Jones. There were multiple reports that the Patriots and Jones had a “serious” rift over how to handle his high-ankle sprain, some claiming that the relationship has been damaged “beyond repair”. In these situations, I always wonder who the “sources” of the information really are. Is it coming from within the Patriots organization in an effort to justify a future Jones benching? Is it a media-fed story to add fuel to the fire of a QB controversy? Either way, where there is smoke, there is usually fire and that leads me to think that a Zappe QB1 scenario may not be as far-fetched as initially thought.

I’m not sure we’ve reached a clear tipping point in the QB1 controversy just yet. I think a longer look at Zappe is not out of the question and would be adventitious. The Patriots could easily keep delaying the return of Mac with his questionable ankle (high-sprains are notoriously tricky) and continue to get a look at the rookie in other scenarios and against better opponents. This week the Pats play on Monday night at home against the Bears who have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and are tied for allowing the 2nd fewest touchdowns this season. They are solid and should provide an interesting opportunity for Zappe, especially in primetime (assuming he starts). Regardless of who is QB1 going forward, the emergence of Zappe is an extreme positive for the Patriots, because it increases his trade value and/or opens the door for a Mac trade in the future. Young QBs who have proven they can play in the NFL are extremely valuable and the Pats may have two of them. Additionally, some serious competition at a critical position usually pushes both guys to get better and play at the top of their game.

Now it’s up to Belichick to make a potentially franchise-altering decision at the arguably most important position in football. No pressure.

Top 5 Offseason Decisions for the Patriots

/ Brian Phair / 2 Comments

With the 2022 offseason in full swing for the New England Patriots after their abrupt playoff exit, it’s time to take a look at the plethora of big decisions the team will be facing before the start of next season. The Pats have a whopping 20 free agents to handle this offseason including some big defensive pieces and veteran leaders, including 4 of their 5 captains from 2021. It could be a significant turning point for the franchise depending on the direction Bill Belichick takes the team. The opening day roster could look quite a bit different next season. Let’s look at some of the biggest free agents on the Pats.

1. J.C. Jackson, CB

After moving on from one of the best corner backs in football, Stephon Gilmore, Bill Belichick handed the #1 reigns to J.C. Jackson and seemingly committed to him going forward. As a whole, he had a great season and did a really nice job shutting down the opposing team’s top receiver on a weekly basis. He played in all 17 games and made his first Pro Bowl thanks to 8 interceptions and a career-high 23 passes deflected. There were some moments of struggle down the stretch, but a lot of that can be attributed to the awful depth at corner behind Jackson and the complete lack of a pass-rush in the last month of the season giving opposing QBs tons of time to read the defense and throw. If Belichick decides not to pay Jackson, he’ll have a hard time bringing in another #1 corner at a reasonable price and the Pats secondary could be in for another rough year.

Prediction: Jackson takes a small hometown discount (keyword is small), but gets paid handsomely and appropriately to stay in New England for the next few years as the #1 corner. It will solidify the top spot in the secondary and then allow Belichick to fill-in behind him.

2. Devin McCourty, S

The 27th pick in the 1st round of the 2010 draft has proven to be a critical mainstay with the Pats. Devin McCourty started as a corner after being drafted out of Rutgers, but was moved to safety a few seasons into his NFL career and it was a great decision. McCourty has anchored the Pats secondary for the last decade and at 34, this is a big decision for both him and the Patriots. One possible outcome on the table is that McCourty decides to retire and doesn’t give the Pats a chance to make a decision. If he decides to keep playing, Belichick will likely not want to give someone of his age a large contract. It might come down to how much McCourty wants to stick around in New England and how much he’s willing to budge on salary to make that happen.

Prediction: McCourty is beloved in New England and with a young child at home, I imagine he won’t want to uproot his family for a year or two elsewhere unless he has no choice. As long as the Patriots offer him a fair deal, he decides to keep playing and comes back on a team friendly 1-year deal and then retires following the season.

3. Matthew Slater, WR

Slater may be one of the most underrated players on the Pats roster. As a team captain and primary special teams player, Belichick loves Slater and his ability to impact special teams on a consistent basis. His ability to stay on the field (he hasn’t missed a game for the Patriots in 4 years) and lead the special teams efforts make him an important person to re-sign. His intangibles are his greatest asset, as he is often praised by the coaches for his leadership and recognized for his contributions to the community off the field. While Slater is another potential retirement candidate as he will turn 37 in September, his workload primarily on special teams may allow him to play deeper into his 30s than someone on the field for more snaps.

Prediction: I’m a bit more torn on this one, but think Slater will follow in McCourty’s footsteps and sign a 1-year deal to finish his career a Patriot. Like McCourty, I think this upcoming season could be his last in the NFL.

4. Trent Brown, T

One of the largest people in the league, Brown’s 6’8″ 380lb frame helps him protect the QB from the tackle spot when he’s on the field. In his 2nd stint with the Patriots in 2021, just 7 snaps into his season he hurt his calf and didn’t return until week 10. When healthy, Brown is a great tackle and is a strong QB protector and at 28, is still pretty young, but he hasn’t played a full schedule of games since 2018 (his previous Patriots season). Last year with the Las Vegas Raiders, Brown only appeared in 5 games after an IV was incorrectly placed and caused air to enter his bloodstream and nearly caused cardiac arrest. While it was a freak accident, it does add to his reputation of not being able to stay on the field. As players get older, they tend to have more injuries pop-up as well, so there is some concern for Brown long-term when he’s already struggling to stay healthy in his 20s.

Prediction: As good as Brown is, his inability to play a full season consistently will prevent the Pats from giving him starting tackle money, while another team who is worse off on the offensive line may. My guess is that Brown will sign a surprisingly large contract with another team (like he did when he went to Las Vegas) and the Patriots will either draft a depth offensive lineman or pick one up in free agency.

5. Dont’a Hightower, LB

Super Bowl hero Dont’a Hightower returned this year after opting out in 2020 due to COVID. For his standards, Hightower had a relatively quiet season this past year and didn’t seem to have nearly the same impact he’s had in the past, both in stats and with the eye test. As a point of comparison, he had just 1.5 sacks this year as opposed to 6 in 2019 and had fewer tackles overall compared to 2019. The sack dip makes sense with the addition of DE Matthew Judon’s pass-rush ability (at least until the final month of the season) and the lack of secondary depth forced Hightower into some different positions in coverage, but it just felt like Hightower had less of an overall impact in 2021. Hightower is still a leader of the linebacker core and that’s critically important, but you have to wonder whether this year was a small blip or a sign that things are beginning to decline a touch.

Prediction: The Pats move on from Hightower despite his history and leadership because they believe he is beginning to decline at soon-to-be 32 years old. Another team desperate for leadership on defense will snap him up and he’ll have one or maybe two more strong seasons in the NFL.

Honorable Mention: James White, RB

There couldn’t be a worse time for White to have a season-ending hip subluxation injury than in week 3 of a contract year. White is an important leader in the running back room and has been a strong pass catcher out of the backfield for the Patriots for years. He’s been a critical piece in multiple super bowls and definitely has earned the respect of fans and coaches. It’s a tough spot for White and the Pats given the injury, but Bill Belichick and the entire Patriots roster love and respect White and his leadership (sense a trend with this crop of free agents?).

Prediction: White comes back on a cheap deal to prove he’s healthy again and be a veteran leader for the young RB core. He’s only 29 and in a rotational backfield like New England, he’ll play a small but important role on 3rd down. He’ll also be able to step in when Damien Harris and/or Rhamondre Stevenson get injured, because both have a tendency to miss time with nagging injuries in their young careers.

Overall, this free agency class is filled with known veterans and secondary leaders. There are some exceptionally difficult decisions to be made, especially with 4 of their 5 captains from 2021 being free agents. Depending on the direction the franchise feels they are going, they could either continue to go all-in on this group of leaders for another year or two, or Belichick could decide that now is the time to move on and allow the next crop of leaders to step up. Despite last year’s free agent spending spree, this offseason might be even more interesting than last for the Pats.

Reason for Positivity on Offense: The New England Patriots

/ Brian Phair / Leave a comment

As we sit less than a week from the first 2021 pre-season game for the New England Patriots, there is reason to be hopeful of what this season, and the future, will bring. In the landscape of the four major Boston professional sports, there is a lot of negative energy at the moment: Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 and hope is dwindling, the Celtics haven’t gotten much better in the offseason while others have improved, and the Bruins lost some key players and at best are a tick worse than last year. The Pats bring optimism and hope to the landscape after a rocky season last year. One main reason: the offense.

Whether you believe QB Cam Newton, QB Mac Jones, or a combo will be the starter this season, they both have a significantly improved receiving core to target. Both TE Hunter Henry and TE Jonnu Smith would have come into New England as the #1 option, but with the addition of both, it creates a ton of flexibility in play-calling for Josh McDaniels. He loves multiple tight-end sets and is best calling plays in those situations. Both Henry and Smith can hold their own blocking and obviously have made names for themselves catching the football. Maybe most importantly, two talented pass-catching TEs can create massive match-up issues for opponents (i.e. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez).

The WR depth is better than last season, although it didn’t take much to make that happen. The additions of WR Kendrick Bourne and WR Nelson Agholor add depth to the rotation with WR N’Keal Harry and WR Jakobi Meyers. All four have flaws and frankly, don’t always instill confidence, but they can all catch a football on occasion and when not the #1 target, will likely have success as a group. Both Bourne and Agholor are good size targets with ok speed (Bourne is 6’1″ around 200lbs and Agholor is 6’0″ around 200lbs) and can hopefully create separation from a #3 or #4 corner. They should thrive when not getting attention from top corners and their combined 11 years in the league will help the younger Harry and Meyers (combined 4 years) continue to develop.

The running game of the Pats looks similar to last year, but with RB Damien Harris potentially moving up the depth chart. He had some strong moments towards the end of 2020 and is looking to carry that into this season, potentially becoming the focus back over RB Sony Michel. If they are both healthy, the competition should help drive better performance from both. The Pats still have depth at the position with RB Brandon Bolden and receiving back James White. The only real changes are the exit of RB Rex Burkhead and the addition big rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson from Alabama, but I don’t expect him to see much of the field this year unless the injury bug hits hard or he seriously overperforms. Of course, if Cam Newton is the QB, there will be a lot of designed option plays to use his legs as an advantage as well.

The offensive line for the Pats will look pretty similar to 2020, but with one large addition: OL Trent Brown. My biggest concern with the OL is injuries. Only last year’s rookie OL Mike Onwenu played all 16 games in 2020, so there is some reason for concern. OL Isaiah Wynn has shown some potential when healthy, but has only appeared in 18 games in his 2 seasons in the league and OL Justin Herron who may be the starter at LG appeared in 12 games (6 starts) in his first year in the league in 2020. Veterans C David Andrews and OL Trent Brown bring the experience with a combined 11 seasons in the league, but again, have had trouble playing a full season recently. The other likely starter is OL Shaq Mason who is also solid when on the field. The OL is a solid group as long as they can stay healthy, which is a big concern.

Overall, the offense got significantly better over 2020. They have their QB of the future at least practicing and learning the playbook, if not starting at some point, and they have a significantly stronger receiving core. The TE group will have the biggest impact on the entire offense if healthy, opening up more holes for the run game and making defenses cover more receivers leaving others more open. While last year was almost entirely a running play or a pass to Meyers, this year the offense should be more varied and more interesting to watch and difficult to cover. A real reason for optimism.